Lions 19, Dolphins 9 — Week 9: Nine Points Allowed in Miami

Detroit beat Miami 19-9 on the road on Sunday, its fourth straight win, and went to 6-2. The 9 points were the fewest the Lions have allowed this season, and the Dolphins never reached the end zone: three trips inside the Detroit 20 produced two field goals and a miss. Detroit's eight drives produced a Jahmyr Gibbs touchdown, four Jake Bates field goals from 28, 40, 33 and 43 yards, an interception, a punt and the closing kneel-downs.

The passing game finished well under its standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, puts it at -0.2 on 29 pass plays, -0.01 a play against +0.25 through Week 8. The cost came early: 15 first-half pass plays were worth -2.7, the 14 after halftime +2.4. Jared Goff completed 17 of 25 for 170 yards, his fewest this season, with no touchdown pass, an interception and three sacks. Up 3-0 late in the first quarter, first and 10 at his own 47, he threw short right for Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Chris Johnson intercepted at the Miami 40 and returned it 21 yards: -6.0 EPA and 18.0 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. St. Brown still caught 8 of 10 targets for 86 yards.

The run game beat its own standard, and EPA per play shows it: 26 rush plays worth +0.7, +0.03 a play against -0.06 through Week 8. All of it came after halftime, 13 runs worth +2.7 after 13 before the break cost -2.0, and only 38.5% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Gibbs ran 20 times for 74 yards. Up 9-6 with 1:25 left in the third, fourth and 1 at the Miami 8, Detroit kept its offense on the field, and Gibbs went around right end for the touchdown: +3.3 EPA, 8.6 points of win probability and 16-6.

The pass defense Smashed, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Miami's 28 pass plays were worth -5.4, -0.19 a play against +0.18 allowed through Week 8, the Lions' best game this season by that measure. On defense a negative number is good. That total includes a 46-yard fake-punt completion worth +5.3; the other 27 came to -10.7. Only 32.1% of Miami's pass plays succeeded. Malik Willis completed 13 of 25 for 128 yards and was sacked twice by Derrick Moore and once by Alim McNeill, and Miami converted 4 of 12 third downs. One of the misses became a takeaway. Up 6-3 on Miami's first drive of the third quarter, third and 11 at the Miami 35, Willis threw deep left for Caleb Douglas, and Chuck Clark intercepted at the Detroit 40 and returned it 34 yards to the Miami 26: -4.7 EPA and 7.9 points of win probability. The drive that followed ended in Bates's 33-yarder and 9-3.

The run defense allowed almost nothing that worked, and success rate shows it: 5 of Miami's 21 rush plays succeeded, 23.8%, for 77 yards. EPA had them at -5.0, -0.24 a play against -0.03 allowed through Week 8; negative is good here too. After halftime Miami ran 8 times for 13 yards without a successful play. Ollie Gordon II carried 16 times for 55 yards.

The game turned on a goal-to-go stand early in the fourth. Down 16-6 on the first snap of the quarter, fourth and 3 at its own 36, Miami lined up to punt, and Bradley Pinion threw to Kaytron Allen for 46 yards to the Detroit 18: +5.3 EPA and 17.7 points of win probability. Malik Washington's 7-yard catch on third and 6 made it first and goal at the 7. McNeill sacked Willis for a 9-yard loss, and after a 4-yard run Moore sacked him again at the 16 on third and 12. Zane Gonzalez kicked from 34 for 16-9, and Detroit answered with Bates's 43-yarder, St. Brown converting a third and 8 with a 17-yard catch on the way.

Last week's episode asked whether a passing game at -0.14 a play would get back toward the +0.30 it carried into Week 8. It moved up, to -0.01, and was worth +2.4 after halftime, still short of the +0.25 it now carries. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that allowed -0.19 a play here, its best game this season, can pull its season rate down from +0.18 allowed.

That's your Lions, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Lions on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._