Jaguars 34, Browns 10 — Week 1: Four Touchdowns on Twenty-Four Pass Plays

Jacksonville threw the ball 24 times on Sunday and four of those were touchdowns. Trevor Lawrence to Parker Washington deep right for 30 on third and seven, to Josh Cameron for four, to Brenton Strange for 14, to Jakobi Meyers deep left for 32 on second and 19. 17 of the 24 gained what the situation asked for. It was 24 to nothing at halftime, 31 to nothing with 12 oh eight left in the third quarter, and the Browns did not score until a 26-yard field goal with eight 34 left in the third. 34 to 10, Jaguars, at EverBank Stadium, and Jacksonville led on 90 percent of the plays.

Start with the passing game, because it was the most efficient one any team produced in the early games. 24 pass plays, 245 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, one sack, and +19 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and +19 on 24 pass plays is the best figure per pass play of the 16 teams in Sunday's early games, by a distance — the next-best passing game in that window, Buffalo's, came out at +15 on 32 pass plays. 17 of 24 successful is a 71 percent success rate, also the best of the 16. And it was not a first-half-only thing: Jacksonville threw five times after halftime, four of them successful, 79 yards and the Meyers touchdown. The first touchdown drive started at the Jacksonville 41 after Foye Oluokun's interception, and the second went 74 yards in nine plays from the Jacksonville 26: Brian Thomas for 10 on second and 10, Washington deep left for 22 on second and 18, Thomas deep right for 18 to the nine, Cameron for the score. Jacksonville converted five of nine third downs and had three snaps inside the Cleveland 20 all day, because two of the four touchdowns came from outside it and a third came from the 14 on the first snap of that drive inside it.

The run game was there for volume and not much else: 29 rushing plays, a hundred 29 yards, no touchdowns, −1 expected point, eleventh of the 16. 15 of the 29 were successful, second-best rate of the 16, so the carries were mostly fine and none of them was big. Bhayshul Tuten's 22-yard catch on first and five in the third set up the Meyers touchdown two plays later.

Now the defense, which is the reason the score was what it was at halftime. In the first half Cleveland ran 15 pass plays for 75 yards and lost 13 expected points doing it; on defense a big negative number is the good direction, and five of 15 successful is a 33 percent rate. The day's line was 27 Cleveland pass plays, 205 yards, one touchdown, one interception, five sacks, and −10 expected points allowed — third-best pass defense of the 16. Five sacks is tied with Detroit for the most any defense managed in the early games: Travon Walker had one and a half, Josh Hines-Allen one and a half, Ventrell Miller one, and Branson Combs one on fourth and four at the Jacksonville 16 that ended a 14-play Cleveland drive with eight 22 left in the game. The interception was second and five at the Jacksonville 28, 12 17 left in the first quarter, scoreless, Deshaun Watson short left for Jerry Jeudy, Oluokun at the 19 and back to the 41. 17 points of win probability on one play, the biggest swing of the game, and Jacksonville scored eight plays later. Miller knocked the ball loose from KC Concepcion after a five-yard catch with eight 38 left in the half, Hines-Allen recovered at the Cleveland 44, and Strange's touchdown came five plays later. Cleveland converted one of eight third downs; stopping seven of eight is the best third-down rate of the 16 early-game defenses. Against the run: 22 carries, 87 yards, +1 expected point, ninth of the 16. Seven Cleveland snaps inside the Jacksonville 20, no touchdowns — the one Browns touchdown was Watson deep middle to Denzel Boston for 46 with two minutes left.

Two things in the ledger. Cam Little made both field goals, from 47 40, and the kickoff after the Meyers touchdown was returned 74 yards by Raheim Sanders to the Jacksonville 23, and the drive that followed reached the eight before Cleveland kicked its field goal. And Jacksonville was flagged four times for 25 yards to Cleveland's 11 for 75. Nine possessions: four touchdowns, two field goals, two punts, no turnovers, and kneels to end it.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. The ranks in this episode are against the 16 teams that played in the early window on Sunday, not the whole league. What there is, is last year. In 2025 this offense finished fourteenth in the league in expected points per play and eleventh per pass play, and the team won 13 games. The defense finished third in expected points allowed per play and second in the league with 29 takeaways. On Sunday the pass defense was third of 16 and it took the ball away twice, which is the same unit, and the passing offense was first of 16, which is not. The one number to hold against the defense from last year was sacks — 32, 20-seventh in the league — and on Sunday it had five. If you want one sentence out of this: the defense looks like the defense that won 13 games, the passing game had an afternoon that is a ceiling rather than a level, and the opponent finished 30-first in the league in expected points per play on offense a year ago, so the honest read is that this told you what the Jaguars look like against that opponent, and not much else.

Jacksonville is at Denver next Sunday afternoon. Watch the pass rush, and watch whether the passing game's success rate travels, in that order.

That's your Jaguars — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jaguars show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._