Jaguars, Week 1 — What Repeats: League-High Play-Action Rate

Jacksonville faked a handoff on 10 of its 24 dropbacks on Sunday. 42 percent is the highest play-action rate of any offense in the league in Week 1 — Seattle was next at 41, and the league median was 21. Across all of last season this offense used play-action on 22 percent of its dropbacks, so the Jaguars nearly doubled their own rate in one afternoon. Where the throws went is the part to hold onto: Trevor Lawrence's nine play-action throws went five for 70 yards, and his 14 throws without a fake went 13 for a hundred and 75. Whatever the fakes did to Cleveland, most of the completions came on the straight dropbacks. The Recap had the four touchdowns; this is what sat underneath them.

20 of Lawrence's 23 throws were catchable — 87 percent, the second-highest catchable rate of any offense in the league this week, behind only the Jets, against a median of 71. His own figure across last season was 71 percent on 562 charted throws, so Sunday was 16 points above his norm. None of the 23 was charted as interception-worthy, and nine offenses had none this week, so that is a share of the bottom of the list rather than a rank. Last season he put 18 up for grabs on 562 throws, three percent. Two of the 23 were contested, nine percent, against 14 percent a year ago. His receivers dropped one of the 20 catchable balls; across last season Jacksonville receivers dropped 41 of 400 catchable, 10 percent, so one in 20 is an improvement with a very small denominator. Two throwaways. And none of his 24 dropbacks was charted as a sack he brought on himself — last season he had 11 of those.

Cleveland sent five or more pass rushers on three of those 24 dropbacks, 12 and a half percent — the second-lowest rate of any defense in the league this week — and averaged 4.1 rushers per dropback. Across last season this offense saw five or more on 26 percent of its dropbacks. The screen count went up: four of 24 dropbacks, 17 percent, against eight percent last season. 29 designed runs went for a hundred and 29 yards, more a run than last season, into heavier boxes than a year ago: Cleveland showed a light box — six or fewer defenders — on 16 of them, 55 percent, thirteenth-highest in the league this week, against the 64 percent this offense saw across last season. Motion, for the record, was down: 28 of 73 charted plays, 38 percent, sixth-lowest in the league, against 48 percent across last season.

Now the defense, where the charting agrees with the five sacks. Jacksonville sent five or more rushers on 11 of Cleveland's 30 dropbacks, 37 percent, the ninth-highest rate in the league this week and up from 26 percent across last season; by the other count, it sent a charted extra rusher on six of the 30, 20 percent, against 30 last season — the five-man count went up while the charted blitzer count went down. Three of the five sacks were charted as the quarterback's own fault — three on 30 dropbacks, 10 percent, against under two percent for opponents of this defense a year ago. Deshaun Watson put two of his 22 throws where a defender should have caught them, nine percent, tied for the second-highest interception-worthy rate in the league this week, and Jacksonville had one interception, which the pack does not tie to either throw. 16 of his 22 were catchable, 73 percent, a little above the 69 percent opponents managed against this defense last season, and Cleveland's receivers dropped nothing. On the ground the Browns ran 19 designed runs for 67 yards, and Jacksonville showed a light box on 12 of them, 63 percent — about what this defense showed a year ago, 60 and a half.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Lawrence, 26.1: 18 of 23 for 245 four touchdowns, no interceptions. Parker Washington led the receivers with 16.8 — five catches on six targets for 83 and a touchdown. Jakobi Meyers caught both of his targets for 40 and a score, 11.2. Brenton Strange two catches on three targets for 23 and a touchdown, and Josh Cameron two for 20 and a touchdown. Bhayshul Tuten ran 15 times for 66 and caught his one target for 22, 9.3. Brian Thomas Jr. caught all three of his targets for 40. For Cleveland, Watson went 16 of 22 for 205 with a touchdown and an interception, +6 carries for 38, 14 points; Denzel Boston caught two of four for 59 and the touchdown; Quinshon Judkins ran 12 times for 33.

Now the honest paragraph, because the show's name asks a question one game cannot answer. There has been only one game, so there is no within-season baseline, and every comparison above is to all of last season — a roster that has turned over, players a year older, some of them in different jobs. That tells you what was unusual, not what is true about this team now. The version of this show that compares Jacksonville to its own recent weeks starts working around Week 4, and until it does we will say each week, in so many words, which comparison we are making.

The thread starts here. Last season, per the Recap, this offense finished eleventh in expected points per pass play, the defense finished third in expected points allowed per play, and its 32 sacks ranked 20-seventh. On Sunday the offense nearly doubled its play-action rate and put 87 percent of its throws in catchable spots against a defense that sent five or more rushers three times, and the pass rush had five sacks, three of them charted to the quarterback. Two lines go in the notebook: whether the play-action rate holds against a defense that sends five or more rushers more than three times, and whether the catchable rate holds when more than two throws get contested. The Recap called the passing game's afternoon a ceiling rather than a level. The charting agrees, and adds that the ceiling was reached against a rush that averaged 4.1 men.

That's your Jaguars — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jaguars show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._