Vikings 39, Packers 22 — Week 1: Trailed for 50 Minutes, Won by 17

Minnesota trailed for 50 minutes and 34 seconds on Sunday, lost its starting quarterback in the first quarter, and beat Green Bay by 17. 39 to 22, final. The Vikings' own offense produced roughly −1 expected points on the afternoon, and they scored 39, because 22 of those points came on possessions Green Bay handed over, and because the last two touchdown drives took four plays and 22 seconds of game clock between them. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position. This game was not won by the offense's efficiency. It was won by where the offense kept getting the ball.

Start with the run defense, because it was the best of the week by the measure this show uses. Green Bay ran 21 rushing plays for 66 yards and no touchdowns, and those plays cost the Packers nine expected points. On defense a big negative number is the good direction, and −9 allowed is the best figure per rushing play of the 28 teams whose games were in the books by Sunday evening. Seven of the 21 Green Bay runs were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for; that 33 percent is among the seven best rates of the week. The stop that turned the game was a run stop. Down 22 to 17 with 13 17 left, Green Bay had fourth and one at the Minnesota 17, having just declined a made 40-yard field goal to take a Dallas Turner offside penalty. Jordan Love kept it behind the right guard, Domonique Orange met him, no gain. 14 points of win probability, and Minnesota drove the other way for the touchdown that gave it its first lead of the game.

The pass rush finished it. Green Bay threw for 387 yards on 46 pass plays, second-most of the week, and the pass defense still came out at −3 expected points allowed, twelfth of the 28 per pass play, because 19 of those 46 were successful and the other 27 were not, and because of what happened after the Packers fell behind. Four sacks, all of them in the second half. With six 33 left and Minnesota up 25 to 22, Green Bay went run for −3, then Love was sacked by Turner and fumbled and the Packers recovered, then on third and 17 Love was sacked by Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman and fumbled again, and Van Ginkel recovered at the Green Bay eight and carried it to the one. 15 points of win probability, the largest swing on either side all day. Jordan Mason scored from the one four seconds later. On Green Bay's next possession, second and three from its own 32, James Pierre intercepted Love and returned it 28 yards to the 14; three plays and 18 seconds later Carson Wentz hit Justin Jefferson from the nine on third and five. 39 to 22 after the extra point, with three 55 to play. Green Bay converted three of 12 third downs, and four Packers trips inside the Minnesota 20 produced one touchdown.

Now the offense, and the quarterback. Kyler Murray started. His second snap was intercepted by Keisean Nixon and returned to the Green Bay 47, and Green Bay kicked a 59-yard field goal off it. With six 16 left in the first quarter, third and seven at the Minnesota 33, Murray scrambled right for two yards and was injured on the play; a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty on Green Bay gave Minnesota the first down anyway, and Carson Wentz was the quarterback from there on. The passing game finished with 28 pass plays, a hundred 51 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, three sacks taken, and roughly plus a half of an expected point. 11 of the 28 were successful. The two throws that mattered before the fourth quarter: down 12 to three, first and 10 at the Green Bay 39 with two oh two left in the half, Wentz deep left to Jefferson for 39 and the touchdown, on a drive a Green Bay unnecessary-roughness flag had lengthened by 15 yards; and down 22 to 10, third and eight at the Green Bay 16 with two 11 left in the third, Wentz deep middle to T.J. Hockenson for the score, on a drive that started at the Green Bay 28 because Myles Price returned the kickoff 68 yards. The ground game was ordinary by rank and useful by result: 31 rushing plays, a hundred 10 yards, two touchdowns, roughly −2 expected points, and 10 of the 31 successful, a 32 percent rate that is 20-sixth of the 28. Mason's 28-yard run to the Green Bay 11 with nine oh nine left set up the go-ahead score, and Aaron Jones went around left end from the three for it. The two-point pass to Jefferson made it 25 to 22. And the third-down offense went eight of 14, 57 percent, tied for third-best of the week. Five trips inside the Green Bay 20 produced four touchdowns.

Two things in the ledger that were not good, and one that was a gift. Green Bay had nine plays of 20 yards or more through the air or 12 or more on the ground, including the 81-yard touchdown to Christian Watson on second and 10 from the Green Bay 19 with seven 54 left in the first quarter; Minnesota had two such plays all day. Minnesota's win probability bottomed out at nine percent with five 59 left in the third quarter, Green Bay first and goal at the seven; the Packers got a field goal out of that series, not a touchdown. And the gift: on third and five from the Green Bay six, down by five with six 49 to play, Wentz was intercepted in the end zone by Evan Williams. A defensive holding call on Xavier McKinney erased it. Jones scored on the next snap. Green Bay was flagged 12 times for 98 yards; Minnesota three times for 15.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. The ranks in this episode are against the 28 teams that had played by Sunday evening, not the whole league, and one game is one game. What there is, is last year. In 2025 this defense finished fourth in the league in expected points allowed per play, fifth in the rate of plays it allowed to succeed, and first in the league at preventing explosive plays. The offense finished 20-eighth in expected points per play, 20-ninth through the air, and 30-first in the league on third down. On Sunday the defense allowed −9 on the ground and took the ball away twice, which is the 2025 unit. It also allowed nine explosive plays and 387 passing yards, which is not. And the offense that ranked 30-first on third down went eight of 14 with a backup quarterback. If you want one sentence: the defense won this game the way last year's defense won games, and the offense's efficiency was about what it was a year ago, dressed up by field position that will not always be there.

Minnesota is at Chicago next Sunday. Watch the quarterback situation, and watch whether the pass defense gives up the long ball again.

That's your Vikings — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Vikings show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

And if you play fantasy, there's a Muffed show built around your exact roster — free at muffed.ai.

_Data via nflverse._