Vikings 9, Bears 3 — Week 2: Three Field Goals and a Blocked Kick

Fourth and five at the Minnesota five, six 26 left in the fourth quarter, Vikings up six to three. Chicago lined up a 23-yard field goal to tie the game, and Isaiah Rodgers blocked it. By win probability it was the biggest play of the afternoon: the Bears went from a 55 percent chance of winning to 30, 25 points on one kick. Minnesota took over at its own 12, moved to the Chicago 21, spent more than five minutes and all three Chicago timeouts doing it, and Will Reichard hit from 39 with a minute 12 left. Vikings nine, Bears three, in Chicago. Neither team scored a touchdown. Minnesota never trailed, led for a little over 44 of the 60 minutes, and is two and oh.

Start with the defense inside its own 20, because that is where the game was won three separate times. Chicago ran 15 red-zone snaps. They gained 21 yards, produced no touchdowns and, in the end, no points. The first trip opened the third quarter: the Bears drove from their own 35 to first and goal at the Minnesota one, down six to three with nine 42 left in the third. D'Andre Swift ran right tackle for no gain, Jalen Redmond forced a fumble, and Rodgers recovered it at the one. Chicago's win probability went from 64 percent to 44 on that snap. The second trip was the blocked kick, and the three downs before it matter: first and goal at the six, Blake Cashman sacked Caleb Williams for no gain, and the next two plays netted one yard. The third trip ended on the last play of the game. Fourth and two at the Minnesota 12, one second left, and Dallas Turner sacked Tyson Bagent for a loss of nine. 22 points of win probability, and the end. Three points allowed ties Carolina and New England for the fewest of the 28 teams that have played this week.

The pass defense did last year's work at close to last year's rate. Chicago ran 38 pass plays and they were worth −3.7 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. That was ninth per play of the 28 teams that have played so far this week. For the comparison: this defense was second in the league against the pass last season, and at that rate the same 38 plays would have been worth about −5.6. Four sacks did a lot of it. Andrew Van Ginkel's, with 15 seconds left in the first half, cost the Bears 17 yards. Byron Murphy's interception came on third and 12 from the Chicago 40 with a minute 47 left in the first quarter and the score tied at three, a deep ball over the middle for Luther Burden that Murphy caught at the Minnesota 36. The one real leak was a short throw to Swift on third and seven that went for 32 yards, Chicago's longest play of the day. On third down overall the defense got 10 stops in 15 tries, tied for eighth so far this week.

Against the run the yardage and the value disagree. The Bears ran 31 times for a hundred 34 yards, and only six of the 28 teams that have played this week have allowed more rushing yards. But those 31 plays were worth −5 expected points, and 19 of them gained three yards or fewer. Four of Chicago's six runs of 10 yards or more came on one drive, the first of the third quarter, and that drive ended with the fumble at the one. A week ago this run defense was the best in the league by expected points per play. This was not that, and it did not need to be.

The offense is the part of a two-and-oh record that needs an honest look, and third down is where to start. Three conversions in 13 tries, 23 percent. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, only Pittsburgh and Green Bay converted at a lower rate. Minnesota was oh for five when it needed seven yards or more, and oh for three on third and one or two. One of those short ones was the offense's most costly snap of the day by expected points and by win probability: third and two at the Minnesota 34, three 47 left in the first quarter, tied at three, and Carson Wentz fumbled the snap and fell on it back at the 12. −3 and a half expected points, nine points of win probability, and a punt on fourth and 24. The one short-yardage play that worked was on fourth down. Fourth and one at the Chicago 33 in the second quarter, Wentz went over right guard for two, and the drive ended in Reichard's 49-yarder for a six-to-three lead that held for about 37 minutes of game clock.

The passing game was small and clean. 23 pass plays, a hundred 43 yards, +0.5 expected points, sixteenth per play so far this week. Only Arizona has thrown for fewer yards among the 28 teams that have played. Still, at the rate this passing offense produced last season, when it ranked thirtieth, those same 23 plays would have been worth about −4.3, so roughly break-even is an improvement on the prior. Wentz to Justin Jefferson for 30 down the left side on the second play from scrimmage set up the first field goal. On the closing drive, third and five from the Minnesota 17, Wentz found Jordan Addison over the middle for 15, and later in the drive T.J. Hockenson for 19. No interceptions, no lost fumbles, no giveaways of any kind, and a +2 turnover margin.

The run game was volume without much value: 28 rush plays, a hundred 19 yards, −4.5 expected points, a 29 percent success rate that ranks 20-fourth of 28 so far this week. Success rate is the share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule. 13 of the 28 gained three yards or fewer. The two that mattered were Aaron Jones for 20 from the Minnesota four, two snaps after the defense handed the ball over at the one, and Jones around left end for 15 to the Chicago 24 on the drive that finished the game. In total the offense gained 262 yards, third-fewest so far this week, and ran one snap in the red zone all day. All nine points came on field goals, from 35, 49 39.

Now the thread, for anyone joining this week. Last season the Vikings went nine and eight with a defense that ranked second against the pass, sixth against the run in a near tie, and third in third-down stops, and an offense that ranked thirtieth passing and 30-first on third down. In Week 1 they beat Green Bay 39 to 22, but the figures under that score were strange: 261 yards of offense, 20-ninth of 32, 453 allowed, and eight of 14 on third down. This week the offense gained 262 yards, one more than last week, and third down fell from 57 percent to 23, which looks a lot more like last season. The defense went from 453 yards allowed to 326 and from 22 points to three. So the honest update is that the defense looks like last year's, the offense has not yet shown it is different from last year's, and the record is perfect anyway. Two games do not settle any of that.

Minnesota goes to Tampa Bay next Sunday afternoon. Watch third down on offense, and watch whether the yardage ever catches up to the record.

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_Data via nflverse._