Vikings, Week 2 — What Repeats: Rush Repeated, the Box Didn't

Two games in, one half of the Minnesota defensive plan has repeated and the other half has turned completely around. The half that repeated is the rush. The Vikings sent five or more pass rushers on 31 of Chicago's 41 dropbacks on Sunday, 76 percent, the highest rate of any of the 32 defenses this week. A week ago against Green Bay it was 80 percent, also first in the league. Last season this defense sent five or more on 46 percent of the dropbacks it faced. The half that turned around is the box. Against Green Bay, Minnesota showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 20 of 21 designed runs. Against Chicago it was seven of 28, 25 percent, 20-sixth of the 32 defenses this week, with an average of seven men in the box against six and a half last season. Same rush, opposite answer on the ground.

Start with what the throws looked like against that rush, because the loose balls are the part that has now happened twice. Chicago's two quarterbacks threw 35 passes, and two were charted interception-worthy, balls a defender should have caught. That is almost six percent, the fourth-highest rate any of the 32 defenses drew out of an opponent this week. Last season the passers Minnesota faced put 12 such balls up on 448 throws, under three percent. In Week 1 Green Bay's rate was two of 42. Byron Murphy's interception, off Caleb Williams, was one of the two. 23 of the 35 throws were catchable, 66 percent, 20-second this week and a little under the 69 percent this defense allowed last season. Only three were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together. And Chicago's receivers dropped three of the 23 catchable balls, 13 percent, against seven percent for the passers Minnesota saw last year. The four sacks included none charged to the quarterback's own fault.

Against the run, the result looks like last season's. Chicago's 28 designed runs, with scrambles left out, gained 107 yards, 3.8 a carry, eighteenth-most allowed of the 32 defenses this week. Across all of last season Minnesota allowed 3.8 per designed run. The same week-to-week flip shows up here: Green Bay's 21 designed runs, 20 of them into light boxes, gained 66 yards, and this week's came against a Chicago run game that had averaged seven and a quarter yards a designed run in Week 1, the most in the league. So two very different run games, two opposite box counts, and two modest totals. That is the thing to watch for on Sunday. With this defense the box count is not a fixed setting. It has moved with the opponent. The rush of five or more has not.

The offense threw only 20 times, and the charting splits those 20 cleanly in two. Minnesota called play-action on eight of its 24 dropbacks, 33 percent, seventh-highest of the 32 offenses this week, up from 30 percent in Week 1 and 26 across last season. Carson Wentz's eight play-action throws went five completions for 95 yards. His 12 other throws went six completions for 48. Two-thirds of the passing yardage came off a fake. A week ago it ran the other way for him: six play-action throws for 27 yards, 13 others for 106.

Wentz's accuracy figure has come out low two weeks running. 12 of his 20 throws were charted catchable, 60 percent, and as the only passer his rate was the team's, third-lowest of the 32 offenses this week. In Week 1, leaving out a two-point try, he was catchable on 11 of 19, 58 percent. Across his part of last season, on 170 throws, he was at 72. None of the 20 throws was contested, tied with Tennessee for the lowest rate in the league this week. His receivers dropped none of the 12 catchable balls, which makes two straight weeks without a drop. One throw was interception-worthy, five percent, fifth-highest this week and close to his own six percent last season. Chicago sent five or more rushers on 12 of the 24 dropbacks, half of them, sixth-highest this week, and last season opponents sent five or more at this offense on 26 percent. The offense was out of the pocket on one of 24 dropbacks, second-lowest in the league. And the three sacks included none charged to the quarterback, which makes none in two games after 21 across last season.

The run game saw heavier fronts than it was used to and did better against them than it did a week ago against lighter ones. Chicago showed six or fewer in the box on seven of Minnesota's 27 designed runs, 26 percent, 20-fifth of the 32 offenses this week, with seven and a third in the box on average. Last season this offense saw a light box on 62 percent of its designed runs, and Green Bay gave it 61 percent last week. Into those boxes the 27 runs gained 115 yards, 4.3 a carry, tenth in the league this week. Last season it was 4.4; last week, 3.6.

Two other scheme figures moved. Motion fell to 21 of 64 charted plays, 33 percent, 20-seventh this week, from 51 percent in Week 1 and 41 across last season; Chicago's motion rate was lower still, so this was a still game on both sides and one week cannot separate a game plan from a change. Run-pass options came back, four of 51 snaps after none in Week 1. And there was no no-huddle at all; Minnesota was one of six offenses at zero this week.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Aaron Jones carried 23 times for 105 yards, 10.5, the most on the team. Justin Jefferson caught three of six targets for 55, seven even. Wentz went 11 of 20 for 143, 6.3. T.J. Hockenson caught three of four for 29, and Jordan Addison two of five for 21. For Chicago, D'Andre Swift ran 16 times for 45 and caught all five of his targets for 54, 10.4; Caleb Williams went 15 of 26 for 138 with the interception and ran five times for 42; Kyle Monangai ran 10 times for 47; Kalif Raymond caught five of five for 40.

A word on the comparison itself, since the show's name makes a promise it cannot keep yet. Every figure above is held against last season or against last week. Last season's Vikings had a different roster and a year less on everyone, and last week is one game, not this season's rate. Held against those, a number tells you it is unusual. It cannot yet tell you it is true. From Week 4 the show measures this team against its own recent weeks.

So, what repeated. Among the figures that moved away from last season the same way in both games: five or more rushers on at least three dropbacks in four, opposing passers putting more balls up for grabs than last year's quarterbacks did, Wentz catchable on about three throws in five with no drops, play-action up, opponents sending five or more at this offense well above last season's rate, and no quarterback-fault sacks. What reversed: the defensive box, from 95 percent light to 25, the box the offense faced, from 61 to 26, and motion. Two games settle none of it.

For anyone new to this team: last season the Vikings went nine and eight, with a pass defense that ranked second in the league and a passing offense that ranked thirtieth, both by expected points per play. They beat Green Bay 39 to 22 in Week 1 and won nine to three in Chicago on Sunday. The notebook now reads like this. The defense rushing five or more is two for two and the league's heaviest both weeks, and the box behind it moves. The quarterback's catchable rate is two for two at or near 60 percent, well under his 72 of last season, with no drops either week. And the play-action game carried the passing yardage this week after doing little in the first. The first line looks like an identity. The other two are still questions.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._