Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16 — Week 3: Won Without a Red-Zone Snap

Fourth and five at the Tampa Bay 45, nine minutes left in the first quarter, Minnesota up three to nothing. Tampa Bay punted 41 yards to the Minnesota 14, and Price brought it back 86 yards for a touchdown. 18 points of win probability on one snap — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — and by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it cost Tampa Bay 6.9. Seven points was the final margin. Minnesota won at Tampa Bay 23 to 16, is three and oh, led for about 54 of the 60 minutes and never trailed. It did that on a day when its passing game posted the lowest success rate of any of the 92 team games played this season, and its offense never ran a play inside the Tampa Bay 20.

Start with that passing game. 32 pass plays — that count includes sacks, and there were three — and six were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. 19 percent: last of the 28 teams that have played this week, and last of the 92 team games this season. Those 32 plays were worth −12.1 expected points, 20-seventh of the 28 teams so far this week. At the rate Minnesota passed over the first two weeks, those same plays would have been worth about zero. At last season's rate, when this passing game ranked thirtieth, about −6. Sunday came in at about twice that. The interception: third and 11 at the Minnesota 31, eight 41 left in the third quarter, up 17 to 10, Kyler Murray short middle for Jordan Addison, and Robinson took it at the 22. −4 and a half expected points, 10 points of win probability, and Tampa Bay kicked a field goal from it.

The throw that worked best was the biggest offensive snap of the game for either team. Third and eight at the Tampa Bay 41, four 17 left in the first half, tied at 10, no huddle, Murray deep left to Addison for a 41-yard touchdown. +5.4 expected points, 18 points of win probability. It was also the last time the Minnesota offense scored for six possessions and 31 minutes of game clock.

The drive chart says the same thing louder. 13 possessions: one touchdown, three field goals, eight punts, the interception. Six were three-and-outs, the most any offense has had in a game this season, all 92 team games counted. Third down went two of 16, 13 percent, 20-seventh of the 28 teams that have played this week; the only offense worse was the one on the other sideline. 11 of the 16 needed seven yards or more, and both conversions came on third and eight or longer. And not one Minnesota offensive snap came inside the Tampa Bay 20. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, Minnesota is the only one that never got there. The only other team to do it this season was Atlanta, in each of the first two weeks, and Atlanta lost both.

The run game was exactly what it had been. 23 rush plays, 78 yards, −2.4 expected points, eighteenth of the 28 teams that have played this week. At the rate Minnesota ran over the first two weeks, those 23 would have been worth −2.4, the same number. At last season's rate, when the run game ranked twentieth, about minus a third of a point. The run that counted gained three: fourth and one at the Tampa Bay 35, six oh eight left, up 17 to 16, Aaron Jones up the middle to the 32. Nine points of win probability, and the drive it kept alive ended in a field goal.

Now the defense, which is why this team is three and oh. On defense a negative number is the good direction, and Minnesota allowed −15.7 expected points across pass and run, the best of the 28 teams that have played this week. The pass defense did most of it: 43 Tampa Bay pass plays worth −11.3. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks, those 43 would have been worth about −3. At last season's rate, when it ranked second in the league, about −6 and a half, so Sunday beat one of the best pass defenses of last season by almost five points. Six sacks, and 26 percent of Tampa Bay's pass plays succeeded, the second-lowest rate allowed so far this week; only Tampa Bay's defense, in the same game, allowed less. The one breakdown came early: first and 10 at the Minnesota 40, six 50 left in the first quarter, Baker Mayfield deep middle to Hurst for a 40-yard touchdown.

Third down is where it won. Tampa Bay converted two of 17, an 88 percent stop rate, best of the 28 teams that have played this week and second of the 92 team games this season, behind only the Jets in Week 2. Two Tampa Bay trips inside the Minnesota 20 produced no touchdowns. The first was the biggest: first and goal at the Minnesota seven, seven 56 left in the first half, Minnesota up 10 to seven, Tampa Bay's win probability at 64 percent, the highest it reached all afternoon. A four-yard run to the three came back on holding, a five-yard catch came back on holding, and the drive ended in a 28-yard field goal. The defense's worst moment was a flag rather than a play: third and 29 at the Tampa Bay 36, 10 49 left, up 17 to 13, a 10-yard catch +15 for unnecessary roughness on Metellus. 15 points of win probability for Tampa Bay, and it became a 54-yard field goal, 17 to 16.

The run defense was the quiet half: 21 rush plays, 57 yards, −4.4 expected points, sixth of the 28 teams that have played this week and the third-fewest rushing yards allowed. No Tampa Bay run gained 10 yards. At last season's rate, when it ranked in the top 10, about −1.

The finish belonged to the kicking game and the defense. An unnecessary-roughness flag on Tampa Bay's kickoff after that 54-yarder put Minnesota at its own 45. After the fourth-and-one conversion, a sack and two penalties made it third and 27, and Will Reichard hit from 56 on fourth and 16 with three 15 left. 20 to 16. Tampa Bay's answer ended on fourth and 13 at its own 39 with one 54 left, Mayfield short right and Andrew Van Ginkel intercepting at the 41: 13 points of win probability. Reichard added a 43-yarder with 37 seconds left, and Tampa Bay's last snap, fourth and one from its own 40 with eight seconds to go, was intercepted by Rodgers at the Minnesota three.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Minnesota went nine and eight with a passing game that ranked thirtieth by expected points per play and a third-down offense 30-first, alongside a pass defense that ranked second and a third-down defense in the top five. Week 1 did not look like that offense: 39 points against Green Bay, 57 percent on third down, 13 pass and rush plays inside the 24 touchdowns from them. Week 2 was a nine-to-three win at Chicago on three field goals, 23 percent on third down and one play inside the 20 while the defense allowed three points. Sunday continued the slide: third-down conversion 57, then 23, then 13 percent; plays inside the 20 13, then one, then none. The defense has allowed 22, three and 16. Three games do not settle a season, and Week 1 showed a better offense than this one. But three and oh has come to look more like last season every week, with the offense's third-down rate and its plays inside the 20 falling each time.

Minnesota is home against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._