Vikings, Week 3 — What Repeats: New Passer, Still Near Sixty Percent

Kyler Murray threw every Minnesota pass on Sunday, and the number that has defined this passing game barely moved. 17 of his 29 throws were charted catchable. That is 59 percent, the second-lowest rate of the 32 offenses this week. Carson Wentz, who threw most of the passes in Week 1 and all of them in Week 2, was at 58 and then 60. Three games, two quarterbacks, all within two points of 60. Last season this offense was catchable on 71 percent of its throws. One honest adjustment: four of Murray's 29 throws were throwaways, and a throwaway counts as a throw that was not catchable. Take those out and he was catchable on 17 of 25, 68 percent, close to last season. Part of Sunday's number is a quarterback giving up on a play, which is a different thing from missing.

Where the misses came from is the clearer story. Tampa Bay sent five or more pass rushers on 14 of Minnesota's 34 dropbacks, 41 percent, the eighth-highest rate any offense faced this week. Against those five or more, Murray threw 11 passes and completed four, for 22 yards and the interception. Against four or fewer rushers he threw 18, completed 11, and gained 146 yards. Nearly the whole passing game happened when the rush was ordinary. The extra rush itself is not new: opponents sent five or more on close to half of this offense's dropbacks in each of the first two weeks, against 26 percent across last season. In Week 2, Wentz's 11 throws against five or more gained 112 yards. On Sunday the same number of throws gained 22. The interception was not charted interception-worthy, and neither was anything else; Minnesota was one of nine offenses at none this week.

Play-action did part of what it did last week. Minnesota faked a handoff on nine of 34 dropbacks, 26 percent, eleventh this week and level with last season. Murray's seven play-action throws gained 74 of his 168 yards, 44 percent of the yardage on a quarter of the throws, after Wentz got two-thirds of his yards that way in Chicago.

The run game lost its yards and did not lose them to the box. Minnesota ran 21 designed runs, scrambles left out, for 61 yards. That is 2.9 a run, seventh-fewest of the 32 offenses this week. Tampa Bay showed six or fewer in the box on seven of the 21, 33 percent, tied for twentieth. Last season this offense saw a light box on 62 percent of its designed runs and gained a little over four a run. The seven runs into light boxes gained 13 yards. The 14 runs into seven or eight defenders gained 48.

Now the defense, where the one figure that has repeated every week repeated again. Minnesota sent five or more pass rushers on 29 of Tampa Bay's 46 dropbacks. 63 percent, the highest rate of the 32 defenses this week. It was 80 percent in Week 1 and 76 in Week 2, first in the league both times, and 46 across last season. The rate has come down each week and is still the heaviest in football. What it bought was the pass rush. Five of the six sacks came with five or more rushers, and the charters put none of the six on Baker Mayfield's own fault. Mayfield's 23 throws against five or more gained 136 yards without an interception-worthy ball. His one interception-worthy ball came against four rushers, and it became the fourth-quarter interception by Andrew Van Ginkel. For the game, Tampa Bay's passers were catchable on 23 of 37 throws, 62 percent, the seventh-lowest rate allowed this week. Then the receivers dropped three of those 23, 13 percent, the highest drop rate of any offense this week.

The box behind that rush has now gone from one end of the league to the other in three weeks. Tampa Bay ran 18 designed runs, and Minnesota showed six or fewer in the box on one of them, the lowest light-box rate of the 32 defenses this week. In Week 1 it showed a light box on 20 of Green Bay's 21 designed runs, the highest rate in the league. In Week 2, one run in four. Last season, 57 percent. Per designed run, Minnesota allowed 2.3 yards, third-fewest of the 32 defenses. Against the lightest boxes in the league in Week 1 it allowed 3.1. The box has moved with the opponent, and the yards allowed have stayed low at both ends of it.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Jordan Addison caught five of nine targets for 90 yards and the touchdown, 17 and a half points. Aaron Jones ran 17 times for 58 and caught five of six for 34, 11.7. Murray went 15 of 29 for 168, a touchdown and the interception, 10.4. For Tampa Bay, Mayfield went 17 of 34 for 217, 11.3, and Ted Hurst caught the 40-yard touchdown.

One label before the thread. Through this week the comparisons are to last season, a different roster with a year less on everyone, and this is the last week that is the yardstick. From here on the show measures this team against its own season.

For anyone joining now: the Vikings went nine and eight last season with a pass defense that ranked second in the league and a passing offense that ranked thirtieth, both by expected points per play. This season they beat Green Bay 39 to 22 at home, won nine to three in Chicago, and won 23 to 16 in Tampa Bay, so they are three and oh. Last week's notebook had three lines. The first said the rush of five or more was an identity and the box behind it moved. That held: first in the league a third straight week, and the box went from the lightest in football to the heaviest. The second said the quarterback's catchable rate sat near 60 percent with no drops. The rate held near 60 through a change of quarterback, though four throwaways account for much of Sunday's; the no-drop line broke, one drop on 17 catchable balls. The third said play-action carried the passing yardage, and it carried a good share again. The new line is the one the offense has to answer. Opponents have sent five or more at it on at least four dropbacks in 10 every week, and on Sunday that rush held the passing game to 22 yards on 11 throws. Minnesota is home against the Dolphins next.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._