Vikings 15, Dolphins 10 — Week 4: Five Field Goals, Then Three Kneels

Third and five at the Miami 10, two oh seven left, Minnesota up 15 to 10, and Miami had just spent its last timeout. Kyler Murray threw short left to T.J. Hockenson, and Hockenson got to the Miami two. First down. Murray knelt three times and the game was over; the Dolphins never touched the ball again. By expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — that catch was worth +2.5, the most of any Minnesota pass or run all day. It was Hockenson's thirteenth catch on 13 targets. Minnesota beat Miami 15 to 10 at home and is four and oh, and it got there without an offensive touchdown: 10 possessions, five Will Reichard field goals, from 47, 50, 33, 41 29 yards, four punts, and the kneel-down.

Start with the passing game, because the number that has defined it all season finally moved. Murray's throws were charted catchable on 31 of 37, 84 percent, the third-highest rate of the 30 charted offenses this week. Over the first three weeks this offense was catchable on 59 percent. 41 pass plays, sacks included, came to −0.7 expected points, about even, and −0.02 a play against a season rate of −0.15 coming in. 39 percent were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Murray went 27 of 37 for 247 yards, no touchdown and no interception, and none of his throws was charted interception-worthy. The halves split hard: 11 of 19 for a hundred 12 three sacks before halftime, 16 of 18 for a hundred 35 one sack after. Hockenson was the passing game. 13 catches, a hundred 19 yards, eight first downs, and five third-down targets, all five caught, all five converted. The rush that held this offense down last week did not come. Miami sent five or more pass rushers on 10 of 43 dropbacks, 23 percent; opponents had sent that rush on 45 percent over the first three weeks. Play-action was down too, 10 dropbacks, 23 percent, against 30 across the first three games, and Murray did most of his work without it: 22 of 28 for a hundred 60 yards.

The run game opens on the box, because Miami left it light. 16 of Minnesota's 26 designed runs came against six or fewer defenders in the box, 62 percent, the sixth-highest rate of the 30 charted offenses, after 41 percent over the first three weeks. The designed runs gained a hundred 13 yards, 4.3 a run, against 3.6 before Sunday. By expected points the run game was what it has been: 28 rush plays, scrambles included, a hundred 28 yards, −2.6, −0.09 a play against a season rate of −0.1. Aaron Jones carried 20 times for 94 yards and five first downs, three of them on runs of 14 yards or more.

On defense a negative number is the good direction, and the pass defense smashed. 19 Miami pass plays came to −12.4 expected points, −0.65 a play, against the −0.14 this defense had allowed through three weeks. 85 passing yards and no touchdowns. Minnesota sent five or more pass rushers on 14 of Malik Willis's 20 dropbacks, 70 percent, the highest rate of the 30 charted defenses, after 73 percent over the first three weeks. Willis was catchable on 10 of 17 throws. On third down he threw five times and completed none, and he was sacked once. The play that turned the first half: second and eight at the Miami 48, five 50 left, Minnesota up six. Willis's throw toward Jaylen Wright was ruled incomplete, Minnesota challenged, and the replay found a sack instead, Turner taking him down for nine and knocking the ball loose, Cashman recovering at midfield. −4.7 expected points for Miami, and 10 points of win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, the biggest swing of the first half. The offense went three-and-out from there.

The run defense was the leak. It came in allowing −0.25 a rush play, the best unit on the team, and gave up +4.9 on 18, a hundred 21 yards and the only touchdown. 17 designed runs went for a hundred 13 yards, 6.6 a run, against 3.2 allowed over the first three weeks, and the light box showed up on nine of them, 53 percent, after 42. Most of it was one snap. Third and five at the Miami 36 on the first drive of the second half, Minnesota up nine to nothing, Ollie Gordon went off left tackle for 53 yards to the Minnesota 11: +4.7 expected points and 11 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. The defense gave back two yards in three snaps and Miami kicked a 27-yard field goal. Gordon scored from 12 with 15 seconds left in the third quarter, and it was 12 to 10.

The answer was the turning point. Minnesota took the kickoff at its own 29 and kept the ball for 14 plays, 60 yards and eight and a half minutes. Hockenson caught six on third and two and 14 on third and six, the second worth seven points of win probability. On fourth and one at the Miami 30, 10 oh eight left, Jones went up the middle for three. The drive stalled inside the 20, and Reichard's 29-yarder made it 15 to 10. Miami went three-and-out, its last snap a deep incompletion for Chris Bell on third and eight, and Minnesota went from its own 19 to the Miami two: Jordan Addison for 27 on second and 10, Hockenson 22 deep right, and the eight on third and five. Eight Minnesota plays inside the Miami 20, no touchdowns. Third down was eight of 17, after two of 16 at Tampa Bay.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Hockenson, 18.4. Jones, 14.8, 20 carries for 94 four of eight targets for 34. Murray, 11.5. Addison, 7.1, four of six for 52. For Miami, Gordon scored 17 even on nine carries for a hundred and the touchdown, and Malik Washington nine and a half, five of five for 67.

For anyone joining now: Minnesota beat Green Bay 39 to 22, won nine to three in Chicago, 23 to 16 in Tampa Bay, and 15 to 10 on Sunday. The defense has allowed 22, three, 16 10. Last week's notebook asked whether the rush of five or more that opponents had sent at this offense every week would keep holding the passing game down. Miami did not test it, sending that rush at the 20-third-highest rate of the 30 charted defenses, and the catchable rate that had sat near 60 for three weeks jumped to 84. The defense's own line held a fourth time: five or more rushers on most dropbacks, the heaviest rate of the 30 charted defenses. What goes in the notebook now: whether the clean throws hold when an opponent brings the extra rusher again, and whether eight snaps inside the 20 ever turn into a touchdown.

That's your Vikings — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Vikings show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._