Vikings 23, Saints 13 — Week 5: 5-0 After an 87-Yard Scoop

Minnesota won 23-13 at New Orleans and is 5-0, and it won after handing the Saints every point they scored. Aaron Jones fumbled at the Saints 7 late in the first quarter, and New Orleans drove from the recovery for its only offensive touchdown. Myles Price fumbled at the Saints 12 late in the third, and Jonas Sanker returned it 87 yards to tie the game 13-13. The defense gave none of it back: New Orleans threw for 96 yards, Byron Murphy intercepted Tyler Shough twice, and Jones scored the go-ahead touchdown with 14:12 left. Will Reichard kicked field goals of 40, 54 and 55 yards.

The pass defense was Smashed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, puts a number on it. New Orleans' 26 pass plays were worth -11.9 EPA, -0.46 a play, against -0.21 allowed through Week 4; on defense a big negative is the good result. Only 38.5% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Shough completed 16 of 25 and was sacked once, 9 yards by Andrew Van Ginkel. Murphy's first interception came with 7:45 left in the third, Minnesota up 13-7. A holding call and a false start had pushed the Saints back to second and 26 at their own 38. Shough threw short right for Bryce Lance, and Murphy intercepted it at the Minnesota 49 and returned it 14 yards to the Saints 37, a -5.0 EPA snap for New Orleans. His second came on third and 12 with 2:56 left, a deep throw for Chris Olave, and Minnesota ran out the clock from there. The defense stopped 8 of 10 third downs.

The charting shows a defense that did not need its usual rush. Minnesota sent five or more pass rushers on 15 of 26 dropbacks, 57.7%, well under its own 72.5% through Week 4. Shough was charted catchable on 16 of 25 throws, 64%, against the 59.2% this defense allowed through Week 4, but 3 of his throws were interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, 12% against 3.8% from opponents through Week 4.

The passing game was efficient by success rate, 48.4% of 31 pass plays, and one snap wrecked the total. Those plays were worth -1.5 EPA, -0.05 a play, against -0.10 through Week 4, and the fumble Sanker returned was -10.1 on its own. Kyler Murray completed 24 of 30 for 229 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. 25 of his 29 throws were charted catchable, 86.2%, against 67.3% through Week 4, and none was interception-worthy. Justin Jefferson caught 6 of 7 targets for 79 yards and the touchdown: third and 6 at the Saints 15, 12:13 left in the third, down 7-6, Murray threw short left and Jefferson took it in from 15, +3.0 EPA and 12.3 points of win probability. That drive began with a fumbled Saints kickoff return Jeshaun Jones recovered at the New Orleans 37. T.J. Hockenson caught a 7-yarder on the second snap of the game, was injured on the play and had no other catches. The offense converted 10 of 16 third downs.

The run game carried the volume more than the value. Its 33 rush plays were worth -5.2 EPA, -0.16 a play against -0.10 through Week 4, with 42.4% successful, for 156 yards. The fumble at the 7 was -7.6 of that and 16.4 points of win probability: third and 1 at the Saints 10, Minnesota up 3-0, Jones went up the middle for 3 and Khristian Boyd knocked it loose. Jones still finished with 25 carries for 113 yards and the touchdown, and Murray ran 10 times for 51. New Orleans showed six or fewer in the box on 14 of 26 designed runs, 53.8%, against 46.1% this offense saw through Week 4, and those 26 runs gained 102 yards.

The run defense was solid, and success rate tells it: 29.4% of New Orleans' 17 rush plays were successful. They were worth -3.2 EPA, -0.19 a play, against -0.15 allowed through Week 4, for 55 yards. The leak was one drive in the second quarter, when Kendre Miller ran for 9, 7 and 6 and scored from the 2, one snap after Levi Drake Rodriguez stopped him for a 1-yard loss on second and 1. Minnesota showed six or fewer in the box on 9 of 17 designed runs, 52.9%, against 44% through Week 4.

The game turned twice in three snaps. With 2:49 left in the third, Minnesota up 13-7 and facing third and 15 at the Saints 19, Murray threw short left to Price, who got to the 12 before Martin Emerson knocked the ball out. Sanker picked it up at the 13 and ran 87 yards. That snap was worth -10.1 EPA to Minnesota and cost 36.9 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Daniel Carlson's extra point went wide left, and it was 13-13. Minnesota answered on the next drive: Murray deep left to Jeshaun Jones for 32 yards, 10.7 points of win probability, then Aaron Jones off right tackle for 19, then Jones up the middle from the 8 for the touchdown, 15 points of win probability. Reichard's 55-yarder made it 23-13 with 7:06 left.

The scheme leaned on the fake and the quick throw. Play-action came on 15 of 38 dropbacks, 39.5%, against 27.5% through Week 4, though Murray did more without it: 8 of 11 for 66 yards off play-action, 16 of 18 for 163 without. Screens rose to 6 of 38 dropbacks, 15.8%, from 10.7%. Pre-snap motion fell to 34.9% of charted plays from 44.1%. Murray was out of the pocket on 10 of 38 dropbacks, and the charters put both sacks on him.

Last week's notebook asked whether the clean throws would hold when an opponent brought the extra rusher, and whether the snaps inside the 20 would turn into touchdowns. The throws held: New Orleans sent five or more on 14 of 38 dropbacks, 36.8%, about the 38.2% opponents brought through Week 4, and Murray's catchable rate was 86.2%. Both touchdowns came from inside the 20, Jefferson from the 15 and Jones from the 8. So did both fumbles, at the 7 and the 12. The one to watch next: ball security inside the 20, and whether the defense keeps winning with a lighter rush after sending five or more on 57.7% of dropbacks instead of the 72.5% of its first four weeks.

That's your Vikings, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Vikings on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._