Giants 28, Cowboys 20 — Week 1: Nine of Ten on Third Down

The Giants faced 10 third downs on Sunday night and converted nine of them. No team that played in Week 1 did better, and only two others were above 70 percent. Third and one, third and four, third and 10, third and nine with 40 seconds left in the half, third and five from the nine for a touchdown, third and nine and third and three on the drive that ended the game. The one they missed was a third and two in the second quarter that went nowhere, and the Giants punted. That was their only punt of the night. New York beat Dallas 28 to 20 at MetLife Stadium, led for more than 46 of the 60 minutes, and never trailed.

Start with the passing game, because it carried the night. On 31 pass plays the Giants produced 21.9 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that figure is the value the passing game created above what those situations were already worth. No passing game in Week 1 produced more in total, and only Jacksonville's produced more per play. 71 percent of those pass plays were successful, meaning they kept the offense on schedule or better, and that was the best rate of the 30 teams that had played by Sunday night, a whisker ahead of Jacksonville. 230 yards, three touchdowns, 23 completions on 29 throws, two sacks. For the comparison: at the rate this offense passed last season, those same 31 plays would have been worth about zero. One caveat goes in right here, and it is not small. This came against a Dallas defense that finished 30-first in the league against the pass last season and looked the part on Sunday.

The run game was volume more than efficiency, and that is a fair description rather than a complaint. 34 rush plays, a hundred 70 yards, one touchdown, the fourth-most rushing yards of any team this week. By expected points per rush play it was tenth of 30, a hair behind Dallas — solid rather than the headline, because a lot of those carries were the sort that gain four when four was needed. The single biggest run of the night was the quarterback's: second and 10 from the New York 41 in the first quarter, Jaxson Dart around left end for 22 yards to the Dallas 37, out of bounds, and a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty on Dallas tacked on. That play alone was worth nine points of win probability and it set up Cam Skattebo's three-yard touchdown four snaps later for the first lead of the game.

The defense is the paragraph that keeps this honest. Dallas produced +0.3 expected points per pass play against it, which ranked 20-fourth of 30 this week, and the Cowboys converted eight of their 11 third downs. Four defensive pass interference penalties gave Dallas 69 yards, two of them on the Cowboys' first touchdown drive, 38 19. The defense stopped three of 11 third downs, 20-ninth of 30. What it did do: it held Dallas to 18 rush plays and 69 yards, it took the ball away once, and it got the Cowboys off the field twice in the first quarter with punts. The interception is the one to remember. 58 seconds left in the half, tied at seven, third and five from the Dallas 36, Dak Prescott threw deep right and Jevon Holland picked it off at the New York 45.

Which brings the 95 seconds that decided the game. Two minutes left in the half, tied seven to seven, the Giants had second and 11 at the Dallas 29, and Tyrone Tracy ran left end for eight yards and fumbled. Dallas recovered at its own 19. −11 points of win probability on one play, the worst swing of the night for New York. Six snaps and 62 seconds later Holland had the ball back. Then, with 40 seconds left, third and nine from the New York 46, Dart hit Malik Nabers deep left for 16 yards to the Dallas 38. Three plays after that, 25 seconds left, second and five from the 15, Dart found Isaiah Likely short right for a 15-yard touchdown. 14 to seven at the half, and the game was never tied again.

The finish was the same idea with the clock instead of the scoreboard. Dallas scored with five minutes and 26 seconds left to make it 28 to 20, then missed the extra point. The Giants took the kickoff at five 21 and ran 12 snaps: five Skattebo carries, third and nine to Likely for 12, third and three to Likely for five, a facemask penalty on Dallas, one incompletion, three kneel-downs. Dallas never touched the ball again.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. There is no season to compare this to yet, so the comparison is last year, and last year this team went four and 13. Its passing offense finished in the middle of the league, its rushing offense fifth, and its run defense last, 30-second of 32. On Sunday the passing game was second in the league per play and first in total, the run game was fourth by yards, and the run defense allowed 69 yards on 18 rush plays, which is a fine number with a caveat: Dallas mostly did not run. The pass defense was the weak unit, and it was facing a passing offense that finished fifth in the league last year. So the thing that changed is the passing game, and it changed against the league's 30-first pass defense. One game does not settle whether that is the offense or the opponent. Two would start to.

The Giants are at the Rams next, on Monday night at SoFi Stadium. Watch third down, and watch whether the passing numbers hold against a defense that is not Dallas.

That's your Giants — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Giants show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._