Giants 21, Commanders 24 — Week 10: A 21-17 Lead Gone at 1:05

New York lost 24-21 to Washington at home on Thursday night and fell to 5-3-1, its first loss since Week 6. The Giants led 21-17 with 8:13 left, intercepted Jayden Daniels on each of Washington's next two possessions, and still lost on Stefon Diggs's 32-yard touchdown with 1:05 to go. 11 drives produced three touchdowns, no field goals and two turnovers; Dominic Zvada missed from 33 on the first scoring chance of the night.

The passing game was a second-half unit, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, splits it cleanly: 20 pass plays before the break worth -3.8, 17 after it worth +7.1. For the game it was +3.3, +0.09 a play against +0.06 through Week 9. J.J. McCarthy completed 23 of 36 for 293 yards, his most this season, with a touchdown, an interception and one sack. Isaiah Likely caught 9 of 11 for 127, Malachi Fields 3 of 4 for 62, and Malik Nabers 5 of 7 for 44 with a lost fumble.

The run game finished well above its standard, and success rate, the share of plays that gained what the situation asked for, shows how often it worked: 46.2% of 26 rush plays, for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns, worth +0.10 EPA a play against -0.07 through Week 9. Cam Skattebo ran 18 times for 78 yards and scored both, as many rushing touchdowns as in his first six games. The second, a 13-yard run around right end on second and 3, put New York up 14-10 in the third. The work was front-loaded: 13 first-half runs worth +0.46 a play, 13 after it worth -0.25.

The pass defense gave back what it took, and total EPA allowed sizes it: Washington's 34 pass plays were worth +2.0, +0.06 a play against -0.07 allowed through Week 9. On defense a positive number is bad. Daniels completed 23 of 33 for 249 yards and 3 touchdowns, and 58.8% of Washington's pass plays succeeded. The defense also produced his first two interceptions of the season. Jevón Holland caught a deep throw for Chig Okonkwo at the 2 with 5:31 left, and Ar'Darius Washington picked off a fourth-and-2 throw at the Washington 46 with 2:19 left, after breaking up another fourth and 2 at the New York 31 earlier in the quarter. Shelby Harris had the only sack, for 14 yards.

The run defense held near its standard, and EPA per play allowed is the measure: Washington's 30 rush plays were worth -0.03 apiece, against +0.002 allowed through Week 9. Here a negative number is good. Rachaad White ran 11 times for 47 and Daniels 8 times for 30, and half of the runs succeeded. The stop that mattered came up 21-17 with 2:48 left: third and 1 at the Washington 46, Deonte Banks and Abdul Carter dropped White for a 1-yard loss, and the fourth-down throw was intercepted.

The game turned on the possession after that interception. Up 21-17 at the Washington 46 with 2:15 left, Skattebo ran for 5 and 2, and on third and 3 McCarthy kept it around left end and lost 2, -2.0 EPA. Jordan Stout's punt went 12 yards out of bounds at the Washington 29, 13.5 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. On the next snap Banks was flagged for pass interference on a deep throw for Treylon Burks, 33 yards to the New York 38. Four plays later, on third and 4 at the 32, Daniels hit Diggs short over the middle and Diggs ran the last 26 yards for the touchdown, 37.3 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. New York's answer reached the Washington 48 before Rasul Douglas intercepted a deep throw for Nabers at the 11 with 34 seconds left.

Last week's episode asked whether a pass rush with seven sacks against the Eagles would keep getting home. It got home once, Harris's 14-yard sack on the second snap of the third quarter, while Daniels ran 8 times for 30 yards. The one to watch next: whether a run game worth +0.46 a play before halftime can still find room after it, when New York needs one first down to close a game.

That's your Giants, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Giants on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._