Giants 12, Titans 7 — Week 3: Four Field Goals, an End-Zone Pick

24 seconds left, the Titans at first and goal on the Giants seven, New York up 12 to seven and having just called its last timeout. Cam Ward threw short left for Elic Ayomanor, and Jevon Holland intercepted it in the end zone for a touchback. The win probability model — its read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — had the Giants at 51 percent before the snap; that one play moved 46 points, more than three times any other snap in the game. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position against what that situation was already worth, it cost Tennessee four and a half. The Giants beat the Titans 12 to seven at home on Sunday on four Zvada field goals, led from six 37 of the first quarter to the end, and by the model never dropped below that 51 percent.

That is a pass defense that had been giving up a lot. In Week 1 it ranked 20-sixth in the league by expected points allowed per pass play; in Week 2, at the Rams, thirtieth, with 318 passing yards, net of sacks, and four touchdowns allowed. Sunday, 36 Titans pass plays were worth −6 and a half expected points; on defense a negative number is the good direction. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks, those same 36 plays would have been worth about +16. At last season's rate, when it sat in the middle of the league, about +1. The per-play rate is fifth of the 28 teams that have played this week. 181 passing yards allowed, 44 percent of the pass plays successful — meaning they gained what the down and distance asked for — and no completion longer than 20 yards. No sacks counted; the one takedown of Ward was wiped out by a Giants face mask penalty.

The red zone is where the defense won it. Tennessee ran 10 snaps inside the Giants 20 and scored one touchdown. Late in the third quarter, down 12 to nothing, the Titans reached first and 10 at the Giants 12, ran for five, and then threw three straight incompletions from the seven, the last on fourth and five with one 11 left in the quarter — −3 expected points for Tennessee. The only touchdown came with five 39 left in the game, third and four from the four, Ward to Robinson. The final drive started at the Titans 23 after a fair-catch interference penalty on the Giants punt team added 15 yards, and on fourth and one at the Giants 24 with 50 seconds left an Edmunds encroachment handed the Titans a first down, 12 and a half points of win probability. Holland ended it three plays later. Before halftime this defense allowed 54 yards on 19 plays, forced three-and-outs on the Titans' first five possessions, and stopped all six first-half third downs. For the game, eight stops on 13 third downs, tied for eleventh so far this week, after ranking 30-first and 20-ninth in the first two weeks.

The run defense ranked last in the league last season by expected points allowed per rush play. At that rate, 21 Titans rush plays would have been worth about +3 and a half. They were worth −1.9: 81 yards, a third of them successful plays, thirteenth of the 28 teams so far this week by the per-play rate and seventh-fewest in rushing yards allowed. The longest went 16, Tony Pollard off right tackle on the first snap of the touchdown drive.

The offense opens on a count it will not want repeated: 100 passing yards, net of sacks, the fewest of the 28 teams that have played this week and the second-fewest of the 92 team games played this season. Jameis Winston was the quarterback; in Week 1 it had been Jaxson Dart. 25 pass plays, three of them sacks, −6.1 expected points, and 32 percent of them successful, 20-sixth of the 28 so far this week. At the Weeks 1 and 2 rate, the average of a very good Week 1 and a very bad Week 2, those 25 would have been worth about +1.7. At last season's rate, about zero. The best of them came early: third and seven at the Giants 32, 10 oh seven left in the first quarter, nothing to nothing, Winston deep left to Cam Skattebo for 30 yards to the Titans 38, +3 expected points and 11 points of win probability. It set up the first of the four field goals.

New York leaned on the run: 32 rush plays against those 25 pass plays, tied for third-most of the 28 teams so far this week. 139 yards, eighth this week, minus half an expected point, eleventh by the per-play rate, and 44 percent successful. That beats the first two weeks — at the Weeks 1 and 2 rate, 32 rush plays would have been worth about −2.3 — and falls short of last season, when this run game ranked fifth and the same plays would have been worth about +1. 20 of the 32 came before halftime.

Then the part that kept a five-point game alive until the last 24 seconds. Seven snaps inside the Titans 20, no touchdowns: New York, New England and Tampa Bay are the three teams so far this week that reached the red zone and did not score a touchdown there. In the second quarter, Harris ran 11 yards to first and goal at the five; a direct snap to Skattebo lost seven, the drive stalled at the nine, and Zvada kicked from 27. The third quarter opened with the Giants' longest drive of the day, 11 plays from their own 30; Skattebo's 13 to the nine and seven more to the two made it second and two. Then an illegal shift, a holding call, second and 17, an incompletion, a six-yard run, and a 30-yard field goal with seven minutes left in the third. 12 to nothing. The Giants did not score again: their last three possessions were five plays, four plays and a kneel-down. Four of 13 on third down, 20-fourth of 28 this week, and the third-fewest total yards of the 28, net of sacks.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season the Giants went four and 13, with a run game that ranked fifth by expected points per play, a passing game and a pass defense in the middle of the league, and the worst run defense in the league. Week 1 was a 28 to 20 home win over Dallas on Sunday night, with Dart's passing game second in the league that week, nine of 10 third downs converted, and a pass defense 20-sixth. Week 2 was a 28 to six loss at the Rams on Monday night: passing 30-first, pass defense thirtieth, 28 points allowed. Sunday the offense looked more like Week 2 than Week 1, and the defense looked like neither. Two and one, and this time the win belongs to the defense, the unit that ranked in the bottom seven against the pass in both of the first two weeks. Three games do not settle much, and 12 points with no touchdowns leaves the offense with the bigger question. The defense has a better case than it had a week ago.

The Giants host Arizona next Sunday.

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_Data via nflverse._