Giants, Week 3 — What Repeats: Winston Was Catchable Again

The question last week's notebook left for whoever played quarterback has an answer, and the answer has two halves. Jameis Winston threw 22 passes against the Titans, and the charters marked 17 of them catchable. That is 77 percent, tenth of the 32 offenses this week. A week ago in Los Angeles this offense put 44 percent of its throws in catchable spots, last in the league. On Winston's own 66 charted throws last season the figure was 70. So the ball was catchable again. The yards did not follow. The 14 completions went for 118 yards, and by the play-by-play the average throw travelled about six yards past the line. Two of the 17 catchable balls were dropped. Isaiah Likely dropped the first pass of the game, and Cam Skattebo dropped one with 41 seconds left in the half. Two drops on 17 catchable balls is 12 percent, tied with Green Bay for the fourth-highest drop rate this week. Catchable, short, and twice not caught.

The throws themselves were cleaner than Winston's usual. One of the 22 was interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught: the deep throw for Odell Beckham on second and seven in the first quarter. That is about five percent, against nearly eight percent on his throws last season. Two were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, nine percent; on his throws last season it was 29. The Giants used a run fake on seven of 26 dropbacks, 27 percent, tenth this week. Winston's five throws off a fake went four for 31. His 17 without one went 10 for 87, and the 30-yard throw to Skattebo in the first quarter, by the Recap's count the Giants' best snap of the day, was one of the 17.

The rush he faced was the opposite of last week's. Tennessee sent five or more pass rushers on four of the Giants' 26 dropbacks, 15 percent, thirtieth of the 32 this week. The Rams had sent five or more on 47 percent a week earlier. Of the three sacks that came anyway, the charters charged one to Winston, at his own 20 late in the first quarter. Winston was out of the pocket on five of 26 dropbacks, 19 percent, right at the league median this week. On his own dropbacks for this team last season it was 17 percent, so this is roughly where he lives.

The motion came back, and the tempo went away. New York used pre-snap motion on 36 of 78 charted plays, 46 percent, exactly the league median. A week ago it was 26. No-huddle was zero, after 13 percent of snaps last week and 21 across last season.

The box got lighter, which is the thing the notebook asked about. Tennessee showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 16 of 31 designed runs, 52 percent, twelfth of the 32 this week. In the first two weeks it was 28 24 percent. Last season this offense saw a light box on 54 percent, so Sunday was the first game this year near last season's count. The 31 runs went for 124 yards, four a run, after two and a half a run in Los Angeles. The 16 into a light box gained 68; the 15 into seven or more gained 56. All three runs of 10 or more, Najee Harris's 11 and Skattebo's 10 13, came against six in the box. One caution: Tennessee showed a light box on 51 percent of opponents' designed runs last season. This is the front the Titans show most teams, not a front the Giants earned.

On the other side, the defense had the ball up for grabs three times. Cam Ward threw 36 passes, and three were charted interception-worthy. That is eight percent, fifth-most of any defense this week, with the median at three. This defense forced that on about two percent of throws last season, and on about three percent in each of the first two weeks. The first came late in the first half: third and 14 at the Giants 41, 50 seconds left, up six to nothing, incomplete for Gunnar Helm. The other two came from the Giants seven. Second and five with one 20 left in the third quarter, up 12 to nothing, incomplete for Wan'Dale Robinson. Then first and goal with 24 seconds left in the game, thrown for Elic Ayomanor and intercepted by Jevon Holland. Ward's catchable rate against this defense was 25 of 36, 69 percent, tied with Houston for sixteenth this week, after about four in five for opposing quarterbacks in each of the first two weeks. Four of Ward's throws were contested, and all four fell incomplete. The Giants sent five or more on 10 of 36 dropbacks, 28 percent, sixteenth this week, and got no sack that counted.

The run defense kept the heavy box from last week. New York showed six or fewer on seven of Tennessee's 21 designed runs, 33 percent, tied for twentieth with Dallas, Houston and Tampa Bay. Last week it was 21 percent; last season, 54. The 21 runs went for 81 yards, 3.9 a run, after 6.8 a run allowed to the Rams, the most in the league that week. Both of Tony Pollard's runs past 10 yards came on the seven snaps with six in the box.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Skattebo led the Giants with 11.5: 20 carries for 63 catches on four targets for 40. Winston 6.1, 14 of 22 for 118 two carries for 14. Harris nine carries for 52.

One last time on the yardstick. Every "last season" above is 2025, a different roster, and this is the final week the show measures against it. From next week the comparison is this team's own first three games.

The thread, restated for anyone new. The Giants went four and 13 last season. This year they beat Dallas 28 to 20, lost at the Rams 28 to six on a Monday night, and beat the Titans 12 to seven, and they are two and one. Last week's notebook held two repeats and one question. The repeats were stacked boxes against the run and opposing quarterbacks putting about four of every five throws in catchable spots. Both broke on Sunday: the box was light on half the runs and the run game went to four a carry, and Ward's catchable rate was 69. The question was whether the catchable rate would come back with whoever played quarterback, and it did, to 77, on throws too short and twice dropped to make a passing game out of. New into the notebook: a pass defense that had the ball up for grabs three times, on a rush that mostly sent four. The Giants host the Cardinals next.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._