Giants 36, Cardinals 24 — Week 4: Three Picks, the Last One for Six

11 seconds left, the Giants up 30 to 24, and Arizona at fourth and four on the Giants four, one touchdown and one kick from winning the game. The Cardinals had gotten there on a pass interference flag against Banks, 18 yards on third and six, and then thrown three straight incompletions from the four. On fourth down Jacoby Brissett threw short left for Michael Wilson, and Banks intercepted at the two and ran it back 98 yards for a touchdown. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, Arizona was at 22 percent before the snap and at nothing after it. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position against what that situation was already worth, it was −9 and a half for the Cardinals, the costliest play of the game. The Giants beat the Cardinals 36 to 24 at home, a week after winning 12 to seven without a touchdown.

The pass defense smashed. 37 Arizona pass plays, a count that includes two sacks, were worth −18.2 expected points; on defense, a big negative number is the good direction. Per play that is minus point five, against plus point two allowed per play over the first three weeks. 166 passing yards, three interceptions, and 41 percent of the pass plays successful, meaning they gained what the down and distance asked for. The plan behind it was pressure in numbers. The Giants sent five or more pass rushers on 21 of Arizona's 39 dropbacks, 54 percent, the second-highest rate of the 30 defenses charted this week, against a median of 29. Across the first three weeks this defense did that on 26 percent. Brissett's throws were catchable 22 times in 35, 63 percent, where quarterbacks against this defense had been at 77. 12 of the 35 were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together: 34 percent, after 11 over the first three weeks. The interception that changed the first half came on third and two at the Arizona 35, three 15 left in the second quarter, Arizona up 14 to 12. Brissett threw short left for Wilson, Reese picked it off at the 34 and brought it back to the 26, and the Giants' chance of winning jumped 22 points. Two snaps later Jameis Winston hit Malik Nabers deep middle for a 25-yard touchdown, and New York led for the first time. Newsome had the other interception, a deep throw for Marvin Harrison early in the second quarter.

The run defense was the soft spot. Arizona's runs were successful half the time, 26 rush plays for 123 yards and +2.4 expected points; per play, plus point one, worse than the slightly negative rate this defense allowed over the first three weeks. Arizona scored touchdowns on its first two drives, and the second was all runs after a 20-yard catch: Jeremiyah Love for eight and eight, then Tyler Allgeier for seven, nine, and 22 off left tackle to make it 14 to three late in the first quarter. The Giants kept the box heavy, six or fewer defenders on eight of Arizona's 24 designed runs, 33 percent, against 41 percent over the first three weeks. Those 24 runs went for 4.8 yards apiece, about the 4.9 this defense allowed per designed run before Sunday. After those two touchdown drives, Arizona scored 10 points on its next 11 possessions, and the defense stopped eight of 12 third downs.

The passing game lived on three long throws on third down. 33 pass plays, four of them sacks, were worth +4.8 expected points, about plus point one per play against roughly even over the first three weeks. Winston went 18 of 29 for 250 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. The three snaps that carried it: Nabers for 39 on third and 12 from the Giants 21 on the first possession; Isaiah Likely for 34 on third and four from the Giants 22 on the first drive of the fourth quarter; and the one that turned the second half. Down 24 to 19, five 47 left in the third, a sack and an incompletion had left New York at third and 20 from its own 42. Winston threw deep left to Malachi Fields, who was pushed out at the Arizona 18 after 40 yards. The Giants' chance of winning went from 29 percent to 48 on that one throw, the biggest gain on any Giants snap of the day. The charting adds the cost. Winston threw two balls the charters marked interception-worthy, a throw a defender should have caught, on 29 throws: seven percent, second-highest of the 30 offenses charted this week, after four percent across the first three weeks. All four sacks were charged to him. The play-action fake almost disappeared, five of 33 dropbacks, 15 percent and 20-seventh of 30, after 26 percent across the first three weeks. Without it he went 15 of 24 for 227. Inside the 20, nine snaps and two touchdowns, Fields from 12 on third and four and Theo Johnson from 11, a week after the offense scored none at all.

The run game opens on its success rate, and it is the low point: 21 percent of 28 rush plays were successful. 87 yards and −10.1 expected points, minus point four per play against about minus point one over the first three weeks. Cam Skattebo carried 18 times for 58, Najee Harris nine for 30. Arizona gave New York a light box, six or fewer defenders, on 14 of 28 designed runs, 50 percent, thirteenth of 30 this week and well up from 36 percent across the first three weeks. The runs still went for 3.1 yards apiece, after four even before Sunday. The costliest was Harris on second and nine at the Arizona 43, 11 14 left, up 27 to 24: a two-yard run, a fumble, and Arizona recovered, 14 points of win probability gone. The run game did close it out. From midfield with four 47 left, Skattebo carried five straight times, converted third and three with four yards, and made Arizona spend two timeouts before Zvada kicked a 52-yard field goal with two 16 left. 30 to 24.

The turning point was a field goal the Giants gave back. After the Fields catch, the drive stalled at the Arizona 16 and Zvada made a 34-yarder that would have made it 24 to 22. A defensive holding call on Stills wiped it out. New York took the penalty instead of the points, and the ball sat at first and 10 on the 11. Two snaps later Winston found Johnson short middle for the touchdown, Harris ran in the two-point try, and the Giants led 27 to 24. Eight points instead of three, and New York never trailed again.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Nabers 20.2: six catches on seven targets for 112 yards and the touchdown. Winston 18 even. Fields 12.2, two catches for 52 and a score. Likely 10.1, seven catches on 12 targets, the most targets on the team. Johnson 7.6, Skattebo 7.1, Harris three.

Last week's notebook left one new item: a pass defense that had the ball up for grabs three times on a rush that mostly sent four. Sunday answered it in both halves. The ball came down three times, and the rush stopped sending four, with five or more on more than half the dropbacks. The Giants are three and one. For the notebook: whether the extra-rusher plan stays at half the dropbacks, and whether Winston's interception-worthy throws come back down to his first-three-weeks rate.

That's your Giants — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Giants show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._