Giants 27, Commanders 27 — Week 5: Down 14, Then a Fumble at the 24

New York tied Washington 27-27 on the road after overtime, a game it trailed 27-13 with 11:05 left and had in field-goal range with two minutes left in overtime. Jameis Winston threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns and was not intercepted. Isaiah Likely scored on fourth and 8 with 7:24 left, and Malik Nabers tied it with 1:48 left, deep middle for 17 yards on the snap after Theo Johnson's 14-yard catch. Dominic Zvada made field goals from 51 and 56 and missed from 50, 57 and, in overtime, 46.

The passing game was Smashed on volume, by expected points added (EPA): what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, against what the situation was already worth. New York's 56 pass plays were worth +10.6 EPA, +0.19 a play against +0.025 through Week 4, and half were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Winston went 33 of 54. His ball was cleaner than it has been: 40 of 54 throws catchable, 74.1%, against 61.5% on his throws through Week 4, and none charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, after 4 in his first 78. Nabers drew 20 targets and caught 11 for 121 and a touchdown; Likely caught 11 of 13 for 94 and two. The fourth-down score carried the comeback. Down 27-13 with 7:24 left, fourth and 8 at the Washington 17, Winston threw short middle to Likely, who was ruled to have fumbled at the 1 for a touchback; replay gave him a 17-yard touchdown, +4.5 EPA. Washington sent five or more on 41.7% of dropbacks, against 30.2% this offense saw through Week 4, and K'Lavon Chaisson's strip-sack before halftime cost -5.2 EPA and a field goal the other way.

The run game was short on success: 44.4% of 27 rush plays, worth -5.2 EPA. Per play that is -0.19, against -0.13 through Week 4. The 23 designed runs gained 76 yards, after 423 on 112 across the first four weeks, and that came with Washington showing six or fewer in the box on 47.8% of them, up from 39.3%. Cam Skattebo ran 13 times for 59. His best work came in overtime, 19 yards around right end on third and 2 from the Giants 17 and 5 up the middle on third and 3 to the Washington 24. Then he fumbled.

The pass defense won its matchup and still let the game get away. New York sent five or more on 24 of Washington's 37 dropbacks, 64.9%, against 33.6% through Week 4. Washington's 30 pass plays were worth -3.4 EPA, -0.11 a play against +0.03 allowed through Week 4; on defense a negative number is the good direction. Only 40% succeeded. Jayden Daniels went 17 of 25 for 199 yards and no touchdowns. Andru Phillips sacked him twice on third down, and Abdul Carter and Arvell Reese had one each. The defense held at the 20 in the second quarter: Basil Okoye and Carter stopped Austin Ekeler for a 1-yard loss, Shelby Harris stopped him for no gain, a third-down throw fell incomplete, and Washington kicked a field goal. No turnovers, though, and none of Daniels' 25 throws was charted interception-worthy.

The run defense was Muffed, and EPA per play allowed tells it. Washington's 29 rush plays were worth +9.1 EPA, +0.31 a play, against -0.01 allowed through Week 4; on defense, a positive number is the bad direction. They went for 203 yards, three touchdowns and a 48.3% success rate. New York played light, six or fewer in the box on 16 of 22 designed runs, 72.7%, against 38.8% through Week 4. Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran 11 times for 82 and a touchdown. The damage that hurt most came on Daniels' scrambles. Down 12-6 with 7:56 left in the third, second and 6 at the Giants 38, he ran up the middle 38 yards for a touchdown. Down 19-13 early in the fourth, third and 2 at the 26, he ran off left tackle for another.

The game turned with 2:00 left in overtime. Tied 27-27, first and 10 at the Washington 24, Skattebo went up the middle for no gain, Daron Payne forced the fumble and Shy Tuttle recovered at the 23. The snap was worth -3.5 EPA. Washington then drove to the Giants 24 before Tremaine Edmunds sacked Daniels for no gain and time ran out. New York converted 8 of 17 third downs and scored 3 touchdowns on 8 red-zone snaps; its 12 drives held 2 turnovers and 1 three-and-out.

The scheme went faster and lighter. No-huddle came on 15.7% of snaps, against 3.8% through Week 4. Screens rose to 6, 10% of dropbacks, from 4%. Pre-snap motion fell to 29.1% of charted plays from 43.3%. Play-action held at 23.3%, and Winston went 6 of 12 for 49 yards off it and 27 of 42 for 277 without.

Last week's notebook asked whether the extra-rusher plan would stay at half the dropbacks, and whether Winston's interception-worthy throws would come back down. Both answered. The defense sent five or more on 64.9% of dropbacks, and Winston threw none in 54 after 4 in 78. The cost of the blitz showed up on the ground instead, in 203 rush yards. The one to watch next: whether the five-man rush stays this heavy against a quarterback who can run out of it, and whether the light boxes hold against a run game.

That's your Giants, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Giants on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._