Giants 27, Saints 34 — Week 6: Three Picks, Then 4th-and-1 at the 14

New York lost 34-27 to New Orleans at home, and three interceptions cost more than 395 passing yards could earn back. The Giants led 10-0 in the second quarter on Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s 17-yard touchdown catch and Dominic Zvada's 34-yard field goal, then gave up the next 34 points. J.J. McCarthy took over at quarterback early in the fourth, down 34-10, and the Giants scored the last 17 to make it 34-27. The final snap came on fourth and 1 at the Saints 14 with 12 seconds left. The turnover margin was -2.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures it. Its 48 pass plays were worth -5.2 EPA, -0.11 a play against +0.08 through Week 5, even with 45.8% of them successful. The three interceptions alone cost -5.6, -5.4 and -3.9 EPA. Jameis Winston completed 14 of 26 for 152 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, and was sacked four times; McCarthy went 11 of 21 for 243, a touchdown and an interception. Malik Nabers caught 12 of 15 targets for 165, Isaiah Likely 6 for 99 and a 24-yard touchdown, and Charlie Jones 2 for 66.

The run game had its best day against its own standard, and EPA per play shows it: 19 rush plays worth +1.4 EPA, +0.08 a play against -0.14 through Week 5, for 85 yards and a touchdown. The backs did little of it. Tracy ran 6 times for 18 and scored from 5 yards on third and 2, and Najee Harris ran 4 for 2. The value came from the quarterbacks: Winston's 3-yard push on fourth and 1 at the Saints 48, scoreless in the first, was worth +2.2 EPA and 7.5 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, and kept the opening touchdown drive alive. McCarthy's 28-yard scramble opened the final drive.

The pass defense won most snaps and lost the ones that scored, and the success rate allowed tells it: only 33.3% of the Saints' 30 pass plays succeeded. They were worth -0.5 EPA, -0.02 a play against +0.00 allowed through Week 5; on defense a negative number is good. Tyler Shough completed 16 of 30 for 144 yards, but three went for touchdowns, he threw no interceptions, and New York did not sack him. The defense got off the field on 11 of 15 third downs. A roughing-the-passer penalty on Kayvon Thibodeaux turned an incompletion into 15 yards on the drive that ended in Alvin Kamara's 31-yard touchdown.

The run defense gave up volume and held where it counted, and total EPA allowed shows it: the Saints' 37 rush plays were worth -1.8 EPA, -0.05 a play against +0.07 allowed through Week 5; here, too, negative is good. They gained 176 yards, Kendre Miller 70 of them on 20 carries, and 35.1% succeeded. DJ Reader stopped Miller for a 1-yard loss on third and 1 at the 1 before halftime, -1.9 EPA and 6.4 points of win probability. Jevon Holland stopped CJ Donaldson at the 1 in the third after replay reversed a touchdown. In the fourth, Jason Pinnock forced a Donaldson fumble that Arvell Reese recovered at the Giants 48, -5.1 EPA to the Saints, and the Giants scored on that drive.

The game turned in the last 78 seconds of the first half. Up 10-3, Charlie Jones fumbled the kickoff return; Isaiah Stalbird forced it and Oscar Delp recovered at the Giants 28. Shough scrambled 25 yards to the 3, and the defense held for three snaps. On fourth and 2 with 5 seconds left, Shough threw 2 yards to Bryce Lance for the tying touchdown, 14.6 points of win probability. New Orleans then opened the third with Kamara's 31-yard catch on second and 8, the largest swing of the game at 14.8 points. Martin Emerson's interception at the Saints 26, down 24-10, and Julian Blackmon's, returned to the Giants 21 and followed by Chris Olave's touchdown, put it away. The last drive started at the Giants 29 with 57 seconds left: McCarthy's scramble, Likely for 20, Nabers for 9 to the 14, a spike on third and 1, and a throw for Likely that Jonas Sanker broke up, -9.2 points of win probability. New York converted 4 of 12 third downs and scored 2 touchdowns on 9 red-zone snaps.

The one to watch next: whether a passing game that moved for 395 yards stops handing the ball back after three interceptions, and whether the run game's +0.08 a play, against -0.14 through Week 5, holds once the quarterbacks are not carrying it.

That's your Giants, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Giants on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._