Giants 19, Eagles 11 — Week 9: Seven Sacks, Four Field Goals

New York won 19-11 at Philadelphia on Sunday, its first game since the Week 8 bye, for a second straight win and a 5-2-1 record. The Giants trailed 8-6 from late in the first quarter until 2:30 left in the third, when Jameis Winston, in for an injured J.J. McCarthy, found Isaiah Likely for the only New York touchdown. Dominic Zvada kicked the rest: field goals from 53, 49, 38 and 49. 11 drives produced one touchdown, four field goals, five three-and-outs and no offensive turnovers.

The passing game finished a little above its standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, shows where it leaked: 33 pass plays worth +2.6, +0.08 a play against +0.05 through Week 7. Six sacks cost -9.0 of that; the other 27 came to +11.5. McCarthy completed 12 of 19 for 127 yards and was sacked five times; he was hurt on a run early in the third and returned for the fourth. In between, Winston went 6 of 8 for 71 and the touchdown. Darnell Mooney caught 3 of 4 for 54, Likely 5 of 6 for 53 and Malik Nabers 5 of 8 for 43.

The run game was Muffed, and success rate, the share of plays that gained what the situation asked for, says how often: 26.7% of 30 rush plays, for 81 yards. They were worth -7.0 EPA, -0.23 a play against -0.04 through Week 7. Devin Singletary carried 21 times for 31 yards, and only 3 of those carries succeeded.

The pass defense Smashed, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Philadelphia's 40 pass plays were worth -0.42 apiece, against -0.005 allowed through Week 7. On defense a negative number is good. Only 22.5% of those plays succeeded, and the seven sacks, a season high after five in Week 5, were worth -11.8 EPA on their own. Joe Milton III completed 18 of 34 for 169 yards with no touchdown. Arvell Reese had three sacks, and the first one decided the half. With New York down 8-6 early in the second quarter, the Eagles had just recovered Charlie Jones's muffed punt at the New York 47. On third and 5 at the 42, Reese sacked Milton for an 8-yard loss and forced a fumble, and Micah McFadden recovered at midfield: -4.6 EPA for Philadelphia and 15.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. The defense stopped 12 of 17 third downs.

The run defense held its ground, and total EPA allowed sizes it: Philadelphia's 25 rush plays were worth -3.3, -0.13 a play against +0.02 allowed through Week 7. Negative is good here too. Saquon Barkley ran 13 times for 22 yards and a 3-yard touchdown. The leak was Milton, who ran 9 times for 64. Up 8-6 with 2:00 left in the half, on fourth and 1 at the New York 40, Jevón Holland stopped Barkley for a 1-yard loss, 11.1 points of win probability.

The game turned on a 14-play, 76-yard drive in the third. Down 8-6 at their own 24, the Giants lost 6 on a Nolan Smith sack, then Winston hit Malachi Fields for 16 on third and 15, 9.6 points of win probability. Winston pushed for 1 on fourth and 1 at the New York 44. On second and 11 at the Philadelphia 46 he went deep right to Mooney for 27 yards to the 19, +2.6 EPA and 11.2 points of win probability. Fields caught 14 more to the 2, and on second and 5 at the 5 Winston threw short over the middle to Likely for 13-8. Midway through the fourth, Philadelphia's punter lost 14 yards and fumbled on fourth and 18, and the Giants turned the ball at the Eagles 35 into a 49-yard field goal for 19-8.

Before the bye, the Week 7 episode asked whether a run game at +0.30 a play against Houston was a turn or a one-week spike, and whether McCarthy would find answers against extra rushers. The run game says spike: -0.23 a play, after -0.04 for the season through Week 7. McCarthy was sacked five times on 24 dropbacks. The one to watch next: whether a pass rush with seven sacks here, after nine in its first seven games, keeps getting home.

That's your Giants, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Giants on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._