Jets 24, Lions 31 — Week 3: Tied on Fourth and Six, Then Lost

Fourth and six at the Detroit 23, four 11 left in the game, down 24 to 16. Geno Smith threw deep right for Garrett Wilson, who was ruled down at the one; the Jets challenged, and the review made it a 23-yard touchdown. Smith then found Shepard for two, and it was 24 all. That snap was worth 20 points of win probability — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — the biggest swing of the game. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was +4.7. On Detroit's first snap of the tie, Jared Goff went 49 yards down the middle to Isaac TeSlaa, and three snaps later Jahmyr Gibbs caught the go-ahead touchdown. The Jets' last drive reached the Detroit 28 and ended with Smith sacked and stripped. Detroit won 31 to 24. The Jets led for about four minutes of it, all in the second quarter.

Start with the pass defense, because it is the unit this week argued with. Through two games it had been the steady part of this team: ninth in the league by expected points allowed per pass play in both Week 1 and Week 2, a hundred 27 and a hundred 36 passing yards allowed after sacks, and in Week 2 it stopped eight of nine third downs, the best rate in the league that week. On Sunday Detroit's 34 pass plays — that count includes two sacks — were worth +12.1 expected points, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. 62 percent of them were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks, those same 34 plays would have been worth about −5. At the rate it allowed last season, when it ranked last in the league, about +9. So Sunday was worse than last season's rate. Of the 28 teams that have played so far this week, that total is 20-fifth. The first crack came before halftime: down seven to three with a minute 47 left in the first half, Detroit went for it on fourth and two at the Jets nine, Goff hit TeSlaa for five, and two snaps later Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a four-yard touchdown. Third down went five stops in 10.

The passing offense opens on yardage: 321 yards on completions, second of the 28 teams that have played so far this week behind only Seattle, and 44 yards handed back on sacks. 42 pass plays, including five sacks, were worth +10.8 expected points, with three touchdowns and no interceptions, and 55 percent of them were successful — eighth so far this week. At the rate the Jets passed over the first two weeks, those same 42 would have been worth about +9, so the passing game held its level. At last season's rate, when it ranked in the bottom five, about −8. The first touchdown: second and 12 at the Detroit 24, five 40 left in the second quarter, down three to nothing, Smith deep right to Sadiq for 24 — 11 points of win probability, +3.4 expected points. The cost was the sacks. Four of the five came on snaps inside the Detroit 30. In the third quarter, down 17 to seven, the Jets had first and 10 at the Detroit 11 after a 12-yard Breece Hall run; a four-yard run made it second and six at the seven, then Smith was sacked for eight and again for nine, and the drive ended in a 42-yard field goal.

The run game is where the first two weeks carried straight through. 19 rush plays, 58 yards, −4.9 expected points, and 26 percent of them successful, 20-sixth of the 28 teams that have played this week. 12 of the 19 gained three yards or fewer. At the rate it ran over the first two weeks, those plays would have been worth about −3 and a half, so Sunday was a little worse than a run game that had ranked 20-seventh in the league in Week 2. The goal line told it: in the fourth quarter, down 24 to 10, a 16-yard pass interference penalty on third and 17 gave the Jets first and goal at the Detroit four, and two Hall runs gained nothing. The touchdown came on third down through the air, Smith to Ruckert for four with 11 21 left.

The run defense gave up a lot of successful snaps and not much value. 57 percent of Detroit's 28 rush plays succeeded, fifth-highest so far this week, for a hundred 33 yards and two touchdowns, yet the total came to minus point three expected points, close to zero. At the rate this run defense allowed over the first two weeks those plays would have been worth about −5 and a half. It also produced the Jets' best defensive snap: fourth and one at the Jets 45, eight 37 left, down 24 to 16, and Enagbare stopped Gibbs for no gain. Seven points of win probability, −3 and a half expected points for Detroit, and the Jets took over at their own 46 and drove to the fourth-and-six touchdown that tied it.

The drive chart, nine drives: three touchdowns, a field goal, three punts, the end of the first half, and the fumble. Two three-and-outs, both on drives that began in a scoreless first quarter. Third down was six of 12, after two of 11 at Tennessee and eight of 19 against Green Bay. 10 pass and rush plays inside the Detroit 20 produced one touchdown; the other two came from 24 23 yards out. The last drive started at the Jets 31 with two 19 left, down seven, and six snaps moved it to first and 10 at the Detroit 28 with 56 seconds left. After an incompletion and the last timeout, on second and 10, Smith was sacked for 13 yards, Clark knocked the ball loose, and Jack Campbell recovered. −4.7 expected points, 11 points of win probability, and the Jets' first lost turnover of the season.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season the Jets went three and 14, with a passing game and a run game both in the bottom five of the league by expected points per play, a run defense 20-sixth and a pass defense 30-second, last. Week 1 was a 23 to 10 win at Tennessee in which the passing game ranked fifth in the league per play and the defense allowed a hundred 95 total yards, second-fewest that week. Week 2 was a 20 to 17 overtime loss at home to Green Bay, where the run game ranked 20-seventh and the defense won third down eight times in nine. Sunday kept one of those findings and broke another. The passing offense has now been above last season's rate in all three games. The run game has been below last season's already poor rate two weeks running. And the pass defense, ninth in the league twice, gave up more than its last-place rate from a year ago. Three games do not settle a season. But the question this week put on the table is the pass defense, which is not the question the first two weeks were asking.

The Jets are at Chicago next Sunday, October fourth.

That's your Jets — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jets show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

And if you play fantasy, there's a Muffed show built around your exact roster — free at muffed.ai.

_Data via nflverse._