Jets 12, Bears 23 — Week 4: Zero for Seven on Third Down

Third and four at the Chicago 33, 10 58 left in the third quarter, the Jets down 13 to three. It was the best drive they had all day, seven plays from their own 35, four straight Braelon Allen runs for 26 yards to the Chicago 39. Then Allen lost five on first down, Jelani Woods caught one for 11, and on third and four Geno Smith was sacked by Bush for eight, back to the 41. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, that sack was −3.2. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, it cost the Jets eight and a half points, the most of any Jets offensive snap. They punted, and the ball was downed at the Chicago four. The Bears won 23 to 12. The Jets never led, had the ball for about 17 of the 60 minutes, and ran 32 pass and rush plays to Chicago's 86.

Start with third down, because it is the whole story of the offense. The Jets went zero for seven. All seven were pass plays: two sacks, three incompletions, and two completions short of the marker, six yards to Garrett Wilson on third and seven from their own four, and seven to Wilson on third and 12. Three of their eight drives were three-and-outs.

The passing game Muffed it. 18 pass plays, three of them sacks, were worth −4.9 expected points: −0.27 a play, after +0.23 over the first three weeks. 28 percent succeeded. Smith went eight of 15 for a hundred 19 yards and a touchdown, no interceptions, and 58 of the yards came on one throw. The charting says the throws themselves changed. Nine of Smith's 15 were catchable, 60 percent, 20-fifth of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 86 percent across Weeks 1 to 3. One was charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, the third-highest rate of the 30 charted offenses this week, after one in a hundred one throws over the first three games. Kenyon Sadiq was thrown to four times and caught none. The touchdown came down 23 to six with nine 25 left: first and 10 at the Jets 42, Smith deep middle to Isaiah Williams for 58 yards, +5 point oh, but only about three points of win probability. The extra point went wide right.

The run game had its best day of the season by expected points per play, on very few snaps. 14 rush plays, all Allen's, for 59 yards and +0.5 expected points: +0.03 a play, after −0.2 over the first three weeks. Eight of the 14 succeeded. Chicago crowded it: six or fewer in the box on three of 14 designed runs, 21 percent, 20-ninth of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 34 percent over Weeks 1 to 3. The Jets' designed runs still gained 4.2 a carry, against 3.3 across the first three weeks. There were only 14 because there were only 32 snaps.

The pass defense gave up yards and success, and no touchdown passes. Chicago's 35 pass plays were worth +7.9 expected points, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction: +0.23 a play, after +0.02 allowed over the first three weeks. 63 percent of them succeeded. Tyson Bagent went 25 of 34 for 268. The Jets sent five or more rushers on 16 of his 36 dropbacks, 44 percent, seventh-highest of 30 defenses this week and up from 35 percent over the first three weeks, with one sack, by Davis. Chicago answered with the fake: play-action on 47 percent of dropbacks, where the Jets' first three opponents ran it on 22. The takeaway that counted was Fitzpatrick's, up seven to nothing early in the second quarter, deep middle for Colston Loveland, returned 27 yards to the Chicago 34: almost 13 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game, and a 36-yard field goal. Three other Jets interceptions came back on Jets penalties: Sweat's in the first quarter on illegal use of hands, Stephens' in the fourth on an offside, and Ponds' a few minutes later on his own defensive holding.

The run defense bent for yards and stood at the goal line. 51 Chicago rush plays gained 235 yards and two touchdowns, worth −2.9 expected points, where on defense negative is good: −0.06 a play, not quite the −0.11 this defense allowed over the first three weeks. The Jets showed six or fewer in the box on 28 percent of Chicago's designed runs, after 48 percent over Weeks 1 to 3. The opening drive ended at the goal line. Chicago reached the Jets three, and twice D'Andre Swift was ruled in and twice replay put him short, the second time on fourth and one, where Stephens had him for no gain. −3.6 for Chicago, eight points of win probability. In the fourth quarter Briggs and Sweat dropped Kyle Monangai for two on third and one from the one, and Chicago kicked. And Sherwood stripped Swift at the Chicago 28 in the third, Stephens recovering, −5.2 for the Bears. Monangai still finished with 30 carries for a hundred 46.

The turning point was what the Jets did with the gifts. The interception gave them the ball at the Chicago 34 and the fumble at the Chicago 28. Both drives stalled and ended in field goals, the second after Smith's third-and-four throw for Sterling Shepard fell incomplete at the seven and a delay of game backed up the kick. Six points from two short fields, in a game the Jets lost by 11. After the Williams touchdown they never had the ball again: Chicago ran the last nine minutes and 16 seconds off in 18 plays.

Last week's notebook ended on a question: whether the fake comes back. It did. Play-action on five of 18 dropbacks, 28 percent, eleventh this week, after 11 percent in Detroit and 20 percent across the first three weeks. It produced three completions for 29 yards. The catchable rate, three weeks in the top eight, broke, down to 60 percent. Care with the ball bent: one interception-worthy throw on 15, none intercepted. The bigger pass rush held, at 44 percent. Motion fell again, to 20 percent of charted plays, the fewest of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 39 percent across Weeks 1 to 3. The one to watch next is the catchable rate: one game at 60, or the first sign of a new number.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Williams led the Jets with 14.3 on two catches for 73 and the touchdown. Smith, 8.8. Allen, 7.7 on 14 carries for 59 two catches for eight. Wilson, 4.2 on three catches for 27. Sadiq, zero.

That's your Jets — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jets show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._