Jets 17, Browns 12 — Week 5: Eight Sacks and a Botched Punt

The Jets beat Cleveland 17-12 at home on Sunday, and the defense won a game the passing game kept trying to give away. They sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, stopped the Browns on 12 of 16 third downs and allowed one touchdown, a 29-yard throw that put Cleveland up 12-10 with 6:21 left. Then, between 4:20 and 3:07 of the fourth quarter, the game swung twice, and Braelon Allen finished it with a 22-yard run.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, shows how far. Its 34 pass plays were worth -13.9 EPA, -0.41 a play, against +0.16 a play through Week 4. Only 38.2% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Geno Smith went 17 of 30 for 182 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. The touchdown was the best of it: second and 10 at the Cleveland 32 in the first quarter, short right to Garrett Wilson, who took it all the way for a 7-0 lead, +3.4 EPA. Wilson caught 7 of 11 targets for 104 yards. Cleveland sacked Smith four times, and two fumbles gave the ball away. Up 7-6 in the third, third and 10 at the Cleveland 11, Kenyon Sadiq caught a 6-yard pass and Quincy Williams knocked it loose, -3.7 EPA. Smith's own fumble came in the fourth.

The charting puts part of it on the hands. Five of Smith's 23 catchable throws were dropped, 21.7%, after 6 drops on 96 catchable balls through Week 4. 23 of his 30 throws were catchable, 76.7%, under his 82.8% through Week 4, and none was interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught. Cleveland sent five or more pass rushers on 10 of 35 dropbacks, 28.6%, close to the 25% this offense saw through Week 4.

The run game was the steadier half, and success rate tells it: 40% of 30 rush plays were successful, worth +2.7 EPA, +0.09 a play against -0.17 through Week 4. They gained 136 yards and a touchdown. Allen carried 24 times for 116 yards. His 18-yarder on third and 3 at the Cleveland 29 in the third put the Jets on the 11, the drive Sadiq's fumble ended. The 29 designed runs gained 131 yards, after 300 on 88 through Week 4. Cleveland showed six or fewer in the box on 11 of them, 37.9%, a little lighter than the 32.2% this offense saw through Week 4.

The pass defense Smashed, and the success rate allowed says so first: 22% of Cleveland's 41 pass plays were successful. They were worth -12.5 EPA, -0.30 a play, against +0.07 allowed through Week 4; on defense, a big negative is good. Watson went 15 of 33 for 155 yards. The Jets sent five or more on 19 of 44 dropbacks, 43.2%, up from 37.1% through Week 4, and David Bailey had three of the eight sacks. The charters put none of the eight on Watson. Only 19 of his 33 throws were catchable, 57.6%, against 76.4% allowed through Week 4, and his receivers dropped 5 of those 19. The opening drive of the fourth was the whole unit in one series. Up 10-6, Isaiah Bond caught a 30-yarder to the Jets 45. An illegal formation flag backed Cleveland up, Jarvis Brownlee Jr. sacked Watson for 10, a delay of game pushed it back again, and on third and 30 Bailey sacked him for 8 more. Cleveland punted on fourth and 38.

The run defense was Smashed too, by EPA per play: -0.28 on 24 rush plays, against -0.09 allowed through Week 4, for -6.8 EPA and 96 yards with no touchdown. Only 29.2% succeeded. Quinshon Judkins ran 14 times for 44 yards. The Jets did it with light fronts, six or fewer in the box on 13 of 20 charted designed runs, 65%, against 38.5% through Week 4, and those runs gained 60 yards. T'Vondre Sweat dropped Judkins for a loss at the Cleveland 8 on the first snap of a third-quarter drive, and Bailey and Dane Belton stopped him for no gain on second and 3 in the fourth.

The game turned at 4:20 of the fourth quarter, twice. Down 12-10, Wilson had just caught 10 yards on third and 4 to the Cleveland 39. On the next snap Carson Schwesinger sacked Smith and stripped him, and Adin Huntington returned the recovery to the Jets 43: -5.8 EPA and 36.6 points of win probability. The defense gave up nothing in three snaps, Jamien Sherwood in on both incompletions. On fourth and 10, Corey Bojorquez never got the punt away, and Trevin Wallace recovered at the Cleveland 23, a snap that cost the Browns 34.3 points of win probability. Two plays later, third and 9 at the 22, Allen ran off left tackle for the touchdown: +3.9 EPA and 19.9 points of win probability. Will McDonald IV ended it with a strip sack on fourth and 11 with 57 seconds left and recovered the ball himself. The offense went 8 of 17 on third down, came away from 3 red-zone snaps without a touchdown and had four three-and-outs on 12 drives.

The scheme pulled the fake back. Play-action came on 6 of 35 dropbacks, 17.1%, against 21.3% through Week 4, and Smith completed 1 of 3 play-action throws for 21 yards, after 22 of 27 for 275 through Week 4. Run-pass options went up to 6, 9.4% of snaps, after 5 in the first four weeks combined. Motion fell to 32.2% of charted plays from 36.1%, and screens to 2. Smith left the pocket twice on 35 dropbacks, after 16 times on 136. Cleveland's own play-action fell to 11.4% against this defense, where opponents had run it on 28% through Week 4.

Last week's question was whether Smith's drop in catchable throws at Chicago was one game or a new number. It came back most of the way, to 76.7%, still short of his 82.8% through Week 4. The new line in the notebook is the drops: five in one game, close to the six in the first four. The one to watch next: whether the receivers hold onto catchable balls, and whether the pass rush keeps sending five or more on more than four dropbacks in 10.

That's your Jets, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jets on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._