Jets 19, Patriots 26 — Week 6: Four Field Goals, No Red-Zone TDs

The Jets lost 26-19 at New England, and an offense that moved the ball through the air finished drives with field goals. Jason Sanders kicked four, from 42, 36, 40 and 36, and the only touchdown was Omar Cooper Jr.'s 48-yard catch. The Jets won the turnover battle, forcing two fumbles and losing one interception, a margin of +1. They trailed 17-3 at halftime after two fourth-down failures, got within 17-13 in the third, and never closer after that.

The passing game had its best night against its own standard, and success rate shows it: 57.6% of 33 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. They were worth +5.9 expected points added (EPA), the value of a play measured against what the down, distance and field position were already worth, +0.18 a play against +0.04 through Week 5. Geno Smith completed 20 of 30 for 252 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked three times. The play of the night came down 17-3 with 10:32 left in the third: first and 10 at the New England 48, Smith threw deep left to Cooper for the touchdown, +4.4 EPA and 8 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Cooper caught 6 of 7 targets for 103. Garrett Wilson caught 4 of 6 for 44, including 12 on third and 2 in the fourth, and Mason Taylor 4 of 6 for 33. The first drive ended in a field goal after Tim Patrick's offensive pass interference wiped out a 14-yard Cooper touchdown.

The run game was Muffed, and EPA per play measures it: 26 rush plays worth -8.1 EPA, -0.31 a play against -0.1 through Week 5, for 98 yards. Only 38.5% succeeded. Braelon Allen ran 17 times for 78, with a 16-yard run late in the first, and Isaiah Davis ran 7 times for 16. The damage came on two fourth downs in the second quarter, both in New England territory. On fourth and 2 at the New England 30, Allen gained 1. On fourth and 1 at the 39, Smith ran up the middle and Gabe Jacas stopped him for no gain, -3.2 EPA and 8.4 points of win probability.

The pass defense gave up the game's big plays, and EPA per play allowed shows it: New England's 32 pass plays were worth +6.6 EPA, +0.21 a play against -0.02 allowed through Week 5. On defense a positive number is bad. Drake Maye completed 18 of 32 for 235 yards and three touchdowns, without a sack or an interception. Romeo Doubs scored from 42 on the only ball thrown his way, DeMario Douglas caught 7 of 8 for 86 and a touchdown, and Hunter Henry scored from 7. David Bailey's roughing-the-passer penalty put New England at the 9 late in the half, two snaps before Douglas scored. The unit did hold A.J. Brown to 3 catches on 10 targets for 27, and Maye's fourth-and-5 throw for him at the Jets 40 fell incomplete. New England converted 9 of 15 third downs.

The run defense beat its own standard, and total EPA allowed shows it: New England's 35 rush plays were worth -5.8 EPA, -0.17 a play, against -0.12 allowed through Week 5; on defense a negative number is good. New England gained 149 yards, and 40% of runs succeeded. T'Vondre Sweat and Dane Belton dropped Rhamondre Stevenson for 2 yards on second and 2 at the Jets 12 before the half, and New England kicked a field goal. Bailey forced TreVeyon Henderson's fumble in the third, and Jamien Sherwood recovered at the New England 36.

The game turned on what the Jets did with that fumble. It was worth +5.3 EPA and 10.4 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game, and it came down 17-10 with 8:17 left in the third. The Jets drove to the New England 10. On third and 5, Elijah Ponder sacked Smith for 8 yards, -1.5 EPA and 8.4 points of win probability, and Sanders kicked a 36-yarder: 17-13 instead of a chance to tie. New England scored a touchdown on its next drive. Down 23-13 early in the fourth, a roughing-the-passer penalty on Dre'Mont Jones moved the Jets to the New England 48, and on the next snap Smith threw deep left for Kenyon Sadiq and Charles Woods intercepted at the New England 24, -3.6 EPA. On New England's next drive Sherwood forced a second fumble, Minkah Fitzpatrick returned it 20 yards, and that drive, too, ended in a field goal. The Jets converted 3 of 10 third downs. 10 drives produced a touchdown, four field goals, an interception and two turnovers on downs.

Last week's question was a charting one, so it waits for the full episode. The one to watch next: whether a passing game worth +0.18 a play can turn its yards into touchdowns after none on 8 red-zone snaps, and whether the run game, -0.31 a play, can convert the short downs it failed twice here.

That's your Jets, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jets on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._