Jets 25, Dolphins 28 — Week 7: Stopped at the 1, Short by 3

New York lost 28-25 to Miami at home, and the missing points went on two possessions. Down 21-7 in the third quarter, Jason Sanders's 40-yard field goal hit the right upright; down 21-14 early in the fourth, a first and goal at the 1 ended in a 33-yarder. Mason Taylor's touchdown and two-point catch made it 28-25 with 3:24 left, and the offense never touched the ball again. Eight drives produced three touchdowns, a field goal, a missed field goal, an interception, a punt and a three-and-out.

The passing game Smashed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, says by how much. Its 32 pass plays were worth +11.2 EPA, +0.35 a play against +0.06 through Week 6, and 50% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Geno Smith completed 23 of 30 for 287 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked twice. Omar Cooper Jr. caught all 5 of his targets for 115 yards and a score, Taylor 5 for 62 and two scores, and Isaiah Davis 3 for 49. The throw that restarted the game came down 21-7 with 7:34 left in the third: third and 7 at the Jets' 30, Smith went deep middle to Cooper for 60 yards to the Miami 10, +5.08 EPA and 8.7 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Three snaps later Cooper caught the 3-yard touchdown on third and 3. The miss came down 14-7 early in the second: first and 10 at the Miami 21, Smith threw short middle for Taylor and Michael Taaffe intercepted at the 15, -4.87 EPA.

The run game climbed well past its standard, and success rate is the fair read: 55% of 20 rush plays succeeded, worth +2.2 EPA, +0.11 a play against -0.14 through Week 6, for 109 yards and no touchdowns. Braelon Allen ran 17 times for 104 yards and opened the second half with 27 through right tackle. The short-yardage carries were the problem: Allen was stopped for no gain on third and 1 at the Miami 29 on that drive, and both goal-line runs in the fourth lost a yard.

The pass defense was Muffed, and EPA per play allowed shows how far it fell: Miami's 23 pass plays were worth +0.50 a play, against +0.02 allowed through Week 6. On defense a positive number is bad, and +11.4 in total is a lot of it. Malik Willis completed 14 of 21 for 208 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Greg Dulcich caught all 5 of his targets for 86 yards, every one in the first half and every one on a touchdown drive, and Caleb Douglas caught 2 for 70 and both scores. Nate Lynn's sack on third and 2 late in the third, -2.27 EPA for Miami, forced a punt.

The run defense fell furthest from its standard, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Miami's 39 rush plays were worth +6.2 EPA, +0.16 a play against -0.13 allowed through Week 6; here, too, positive is the bad direction. They gained 158 yards and two touchdowns, and 48.7% succeeded. Ollie Gordon II needed 25 carries for 103 yards and was worth +0.09 EPA in total; the damage came from Willis, whose five scrambles gained 37 yards and +6.9 EPA. One converted fourth and 2 at the Jets' 41, and the last went in from the 2 with 12 seconds left in the half for 21-7.

The game turned at the goal line and then on one throw. Down 21-14 with 11:25 left, Allen ran 10 yards to the Miami 1. Andrew Beck lost a yard, Allen lost a yard, and on third and 3 Chop Robinson sacked Smith for a 12-yard loss: 13.0 points of win probability gone, the costliest Jets snap of the day. Sanders kicked from 33 for 21-17. After a Miami three-and-out and a Jets three-and-out, Willis threw short left on second and 7 at his own 37 with 4:55 left, and Douglas ran 59 yards after the catch for a 63-yard touchdown, 17.6 points of win probability for Miami, the biggest swing of the game. The answer came fast: Smith hit Davis for 41 on fourth and 4 at his own 41, Taylor caught a 12-yard touchdown on third and 4, and Taylor caught the two-point try on the third attempt. The Jets spent their last two timeouts, and Willis converted fourth and 1 at their 49 with 2:00 left.

Last week's notebook asked whether play-action would earn a bigger share, and whether a passing game worth +0.18 a play could finish in the red zone after none on 8 snaps. Play-action waits for the charting. The red zone answered: 3 touchdowns on 13 snaps, with the 1-yard line the one that cost. The one to watch next: whether a run defense that allowed +0.16 a play here, after -0.13 through Week 6, gets back to its standard, and whether the pass defense returns toward the +0.02 it allowed through Week 6.

That's your Jets, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jets on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._