Jets 12, Chiefs 35 — Week 9: 2 of 12 on Third Down

New York lost 35-12 at Kansas City on Sunday, its fourth straight loss, and fell to 2-7. The 23-point margin was the Jets' largest of the season. They led 9-7 midway through the second quarter on three Jason Sanders field goals, then were outscored 28-3. 11 drives produced no touchdowns, four field goals, from 23, 48, 49 and 54 yards, a miss from 53, a lost fumble, two turnovers on downs and three three-and-outs. Six snaps in the red zone produced no touchdown.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the fall: 37 pass plays worth -10.8, -0.29 a play against +0.133 through Week 8. Only 35.1% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Geno Smith completed 18 of 32 for 165 yards with no touchdowns and was sacked five times. The 19 pass plays after halftime were worth -11.1. Omar Cooper caught 8 of 11 targets for 58 yards and Kenyon Sadiq all 4 of his for 49; Adonai Mitchell, with 142 yards last week, caught none of 7. Down 28-12 with 11:47 left, fourth and 3 at the Kansas City 20, George Karlaftis sacked Smith for 6, -3.7 EPA, and the Jets did not get that close again.

The run game fell below a low standard, and EPA per play measures it: 25 rush plays worth -0.32 a play against -0.079 through Week 8. A lost fumble was -4.6 of the -7.9; the other 24 came to -0.14 a play, and 44% succeeded, for 106 yards. Breece Hall, in his first game since Week 3, ran 15 times for 61, with a 16-yarder in the second quarter. The opening drive showed the rest: Hall's runs of 8 and 7 reached first and goal at the 4, Braelon Allen lost a yard between two incompletions to Mitchell, and Sanders kicked from 23. New York ran 21 times before halftime and 4 after it.

The pass defense held better than in its last two games but stayed above its standard, and success rate allowed tells it: 19 of Kansas City's 33 pass plays, 57.6%, succeeded, worth +0.23 a play against +0.122 allowed through Week 8. On defense a positive number is bad. Patrick Mahomes completed 23 of 31 for 242 yards and two touchdowns, both to Kenneth Walker. David Bailey sacked him twice and forced a fumble both times. The second, up 14-12 with 1:41 left in the half, was recovered by Will McDonald IV at the Kansas City 30, 21.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The Jets lost 5 yards from there, and Sanders missed from 53.

The run defense gave way after halftime, and the half split in EPA shows where: Kansas City's 7 rush plays before the break were worth -5.5, its 24 after it +8.6, for 136 yards. For the game: +0.10 a play against -0.084 allowed through Week 8; here, too, a positive number is bad. The first-half number was mostly one snap. Up 3-0, third and 1 at the Kansas City 34, Justin Fields ran up the middle and was ruled down; New York challenged, the call became a fumble recovered by Demario Davis, and Sanders kicked a 48-yarder. Walker ran 18 times for 102 and scored from the 2, and Travis Kelce scored on fourth and 1.

The game turned on Allen's fumble. Up 9-7 with 6:29 left in the second quarter, first and 10 at the Jets' 21, he ran up the middle for 5 yards and Nick Bolton knocked the ball out; Alohi Gilman recovered and returned it to the 24, 22.0 points of win probability, the game's largest swing. Two snaps later Walker's 25-yard touchdown catch put Kansas City ahead for good. On the next possession after Bailey's strip, Chris Jones sacked Smith for 9 on third and 6 at the 26, and the 53-yard try went wide left. The Jets converted 2 of 12 third downs, both to Cooper in the first half.

Last week's episode asked whether a pass defense that allowed +0.50 and +0.61 a play in back-to-back weeks would get anywhere near its standard. It got closer, at +0.23, and stopped 5 of 11 third downs, but did not reach its +0.122. The one to watch next: whether a passing game at -0.29 a play here, against +0.133 through Week 8, gets back to its level, and whether Mitchell's targets start turning into catches again.

That's your Jets, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jets on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._