49ers 35, Dolphins 13 — Week 2: Ten for Ten in the Third

First play of the second half, first and 10 at the San Francisco 35, up 14 to six. Brock Purdy threw deep down the middle to George Kittle for 40 yards, to the Miami 25. Three plays later, from the 12, Purdy to Kittle again, short left, touchdown. Four plays, 65 yards, 21 to six. That was the start of a third quarter in which San Francisco threw 10 passes and completed all 10, for a hundred 80 yards, and turned a one-score game into 35 to six. The 49ers beat Miami 35 to 13 at home on Sunday, led for about 49 of the 60 minutes, were tied for the other 11, and never trailed.

Five possessions, five touchdowns. San Francisco's first five drives of the game all ended in the end zone. The first punt came with 10 31 left in the fourth quarter, with a 29-point lead. No interceptions or lost fumbles, by either team. No sacks taken.

The passing game is the whole reason. 22 pass plays produced +23.3 expected points added — expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is the value the passing game created above what those situations were already worth. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, that is first, in total and per play, and second place in total is Detroit at 18.6. For the comparison: at the rate this offense threw last season, when it ranked seventh in the league, those same 22 plays would have been worth about +3 and a half. On Sunday, +23. 20 completions and two incompletions, and one of the two was an intentional grounding flag in the fourth quarter. 12 of the 22 pass plays gained 10 yards or more. The value was spread evenly by down: eight pass plays on first down, eight on second and six on third were each worth between seven and a half and eight expected points. The third quarter alone was worth +16.1, and all five of the day's completions of 20 or more came in it: Kittle for 40, Samuel for 21, Kyle Juszczyk for 21, Evans for 27 down to the Miami one, Kittle for 26.

The success rate tells the same story without the big plays. 77 percent of San Francisco's pass plays kept the offense on schedule, the best mark so far this week, and the next team on the list, Dallas, is at 64. San Francisco faced only seven third downs and converted five, 71 percent, second so far this week behind Buffalo, and this was the league's best third-down offense last season. The first five were all converted, all by pass. On the opening touchdown drive, third and five at the Miami 32, 10 yards to Evans; then third and five at the 17, 16 yards to Christian McCaffrey, down to the one. In the third quarter, a false start turned third and six into third and 11 at the San Francisco 28, and Purdy threw deep middle to Samuel for 21. That drive went eight plays and ended with Juszczyk's six-yard touchdown on third and three. The two misses were the grounding penalty and a six-yard run on third and 16, both at 35 to six.

The run game was the quiet part, and it is the change from last week. 25 rush plays, 97 yards, −1.7 expected points, tenth per play of the 28 teams that have played this week. 14 of the 25 gained three yards or fewer, and the success rate was 40 percent, fourteenth. The two longest runs of the day were both Purdy scrambles on the second touchdown drive, 10 yards up the middle and 18 around left end. No handoff gained more than eight. Last week 30 rush plays were worth +6.6 and a hundred 74 yards, fourth in the league. What it did do was finish. Three rushing touchdowns, from the one, the two and the one: McCaffrey over right guard in the first quarter, Purdy on a scramble around left end in the second, McCaffrey up the middle in the third. In the red zone as a whole, 12 snaps and five touchdowns, fourth-best per snap so far this week.

The defense won its end of the field. Miami also ran 12 snaps inside the 20, and none of them was a touchdown; those 12 snaps were worth −2 expected points, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. The Dolphins' first three possessions reached the San Francisco 33, the six and the two, and came away with a missed 51-yard field goal and two short ones. The biggest stand came at first and goal from the six, San Francisco up seven to nothing, early in the second quarter. Achane stopped for no gain. Fred Warner and Upton Stout split a sack for −4. On third and goal from the 10, Willis was sacked again, this time by Height, out of bounds, no gain. Field goal. Before the half Miami had second and goal at the two, and Ji'Ayir Brown dropped Achane for a loss of one; it ended in a 24-yard field goal with two seconds left. Four sacks on the day.

The rest of the defensive sheet is more ordinary than the score. 27 Miami pass plays were worth +4.5 expected points, seventeenth of the 28 teams that have played this week. Seven of those points came on one snap, a 77-yard touchdown on third and four with two 41 left and the score 35 to six. The other 26 pass plays were worth −2.6. Against the run, 29 plays for a hundred two yards and −4 and a half expected points, fifteenth per play so far this week, and only nine rush plays for 18 yards after halftime. The soft spot was third down. Eight stops in 15 tries, 20-second so far this week, after seven stops in nine last week. A roughing the passer call on a third-and-six incompletion kept the Dolphins' last drive of the first half alive.

One more blemish. Seven penalties against San Francisco, five of them from the last two minutes of the third quarter on, all at 35 to six: three holds on offense, one on a punt return, and the grounding call.

Now the thread, for anyone hearing this show for the first time. San Francisco went 12 five last season with the league's seventh-ranked passing game by expected points per play, its best third-down offense, and a defense that was the weak half: 20-fifth against the pass, 20-second against the run, bottom half in third-down stop rate. In Week 1 the 49ers beat the Rams 27 to seven, and that game's figures said something different from last year. The run game ranked fourth of 32 that week, the pass defense fourth, the run defense fifth, and the passing game was eleventh. This week the order flipped. The passing game was first so far this week and the run game slipped from fourth of 32 to tenth of 28; the defense allowed 13 points, tied for seventh-fewest so far this week, while its per-play ranks slid to the middle of the pack, seventeenth against the pass and fifteenth against the run, with seven of the passing points on one late throw. One caution: Miami's pass defense ranked 20-sixth last season. Two and oh, two wins by 20 or more, and two different units carrying them. Two games do not settle whether the defense is last year's or Week 1's, and the third-down stop rate is the figure that leans toward last year.

San Francisco hosts Arizona next Sunday afternoon, at home for the second week in a row. Watch whether the run game's success rate comes back, and watch third down on defense.

That's your 49ers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the 49ers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._