49ers 36, Cardinals 30 — Week 3: Last Year's Best, Topped Twice

Third and 12 at the San Francisco 18, eight 40 left in the first quarter, nothing to nothing. Brock Purdy threw short left to Mike Evans, Evans took it two yards to the 20 and lateraled to Deebo Samuel, and Samuel went the other 80 for the touchdown. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was +7.7. It moved win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, by 20 points, more than any other snap in the game. San Francisco led from that play to the final whistle and beat the Cardinals 36 to 30 at home to go three and oh. After it, Arizona's chance of winning never rose above about 31 percent.

The passing game opens on the total, because it has now happened two weeks in a row. 27 pass plays, with no sacks among them, produced +22.9 expected points, 297 yards and four touchdowns. That is the best passing total of the 28 teams that have played so far this week, and of the 92 team games played this season it is second, behind only San Francisco's own game against Miami a week ago. Both of them beat the best single passing game this team had in all of last season, which was +20 and a half. For the comparison: at the rate San Francisco passed over the first two weeks, those same 27 plays would have been worth about 13 and a half. At last season's rate, when the passing game ranked in the league's top seven, about four. 59 percent were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Third and 12 came up twice in the first quarter and was converted twice: the lateral, and then from the San Francisco 34 with one 27 left, 26 yards to Jordan Watkins. That drive ended on the first snap of the second quarter, Purdy deep right to Evans for 23 yards and a touchdown. 14 to nothing.

Five of eight on third down, 63 percent, second of the 28 teams that have played this week, and three of the five conversions came at seven yards or more to go. Eight snaps inside the Arizona 20 produced three touchdowns, the best touchdown rate per red-zone snap of any team that has played this week. Nine drives before the final kneel-down: five touchdowns, a 57-yard Eddy Pineiro field goal with four seconds left in the half, and three punts. 36 points is the most any team has scored so far this week, and it could have been 38: Pineiro missed two extra points, one wide left in the third quarter and one off the right upright in the fourth.

The run game split by half. Seven rush plays for 23 yards before halftime; 15 for a hundred 18 after it, though 35 of those came on a Purdy scramble that reached the end zone and came back for holding. 22 rush plays in all, a hundred 41 yards, +1.1 expected points, and 55 percent successful, sixth-best success rate of the 28 teams that have played this week. At the rate of the first two weeks those carries would have been worth about two. At last season's rate, when the run game ranked in the middle of the league, about zero. Where it counted was the drive after Arizona had closed to 23 to 20: Christian McCaffrey for 10, McCaffrey for nine, Kaelon Black for nine and Samuel for 11, four runs in a row from the San Francisco 46 to the Arizona 15. A roughing-the-passer penalty on third and six turned an incompletion into a first down at the five, and after a formation penalty pushed it back, Purdy found George Kittle for a 10-yard touchdown with eight 46 left. 29 to 20.

Now the other side, where the week turned. Arizona ran 53 pass plays, and they were worth +11.2 expected points. On defense a positive number is the bad direction. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks, those same 53 would have been worth about −6 and a half. At last season's rate, when the pass defense ranked 20-fifth, about +6. By passing expected points allowed that is 20-third of the 28 teams that have played this week. It did keep the ball short: no Arizona play gained more than 19 yards. It took two sacks, forced no turnovers, and got off the field on nine of 18 third downs. Where it bent was the drive that made it close. Down 29 to 20 with eight 42 left, Arizona went 14 plays, converted four third downs, and scored on a Jacoby Brissett run from the one with two 55 left. 29 to 27.

The run defense allowed 27 rush plays, 93 yards and +2.3 expected points, and 59 percent of those runs were successful. That is 20-fourth of the 28 teams that have played this week by expected points allowed per rush. At the rate of the first two weeks, those carries would have been worth about −4. The snap it won came early in the fourth quarter: third and two at the San Francisco 20, up 23 to 13, a run up the middle stopped for no gain. The snap after it gave that back. On fourth and two, Brissett's deep throw for Trey McBride fell incomplete, but pass interference on the 49ers for 19 yards put the ball at the one: 13 points of win probability for Arizona, the second-biggest swing of the game. Two plays later Brissett threw to Jeremiyah Love for a one-yard touchdown.

That sequence started with the return team. Up 23 to 13 late in the third quarter, San Francisco forced three straight incompletions, and the Arizona punt that followed, with 41 seconds left, was muffed at the San Francisco 30 and recovered by the Cardinals at the 28. +6 expected points and 11 and a half points of win probability went to Arizona. From 23 to six early in the third quarter, the Cardinals outscored San Francisco 24 to 13 the rest of the way.

The last answer came up 29 to 27 with two 51 left, from the San Francisco 35. McCaffrey caught a short pass for 11 on the first snap, worth about eight and a half points of win probability. A 45-yard Purdy scramble to the end zone came back for holding with one 52 left, and after a run for no gain at the Arizona 20, the Cardinals spent their last timeout. On second and 10 with one 36 left, Purdy threw deep right to Kittle for 20 yards and the touchdown. 36 to 27. Arizona's field goal with 39 seconds left made it six, and Samuel recovered the onside kick.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season San Francisco went 12 five with a passing game in the top seven by expected points per play, the best third-down offense in the league, a run game in the middle of the league, a pass defense 20-fifth and a run defense in the bottom half. Week 1 was a 27 to seven win over the Rams in Melbourne, where the pass defense ranked fourth of 32 and no team allowed fewer points. Week 2 was a 35 to 13 win over Miami, with the best passing game of the week by expected points per play. Sunday extended the offense's case: two straight passing games better than any this team had last season. The defense went the other way. Per play against the pass, it has gone from fourth of 32 in Week 1 to eighteenth in Week 2 and eighteenth of 28 this week, and the points allowed went from seven to 13 to 30. Three games do not settle a season. But a pass defense that ranked 20-fifth last season looked fixed in Melbourne, and two weeks later it looks less so.

San Francisco hosts the Denver Broncos on Sunday, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._