49ers, Week 3 — What Repeats: Less Catchable, More Yards

The line this show kept in its notebook was two weeks of catchable throws into very little traffic. That broke on Sunday. 16 of Brock Purdy's 27 throws against Arizona were charted catchable, 59 percent. That is thirtieth of the 32 teams this week, against a median of 69. A week ago he was at 95 percent, first in the league. In Week 1 he was at 85, fourth. Across last season his rate was 76. The traffic came back too. Seven of the 27 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 26 percent and the sixth-highest share in the league this week. The first two weeks it was six percent and five. Last season it was 15. And the passing game gained 297 yards and threw four touchdowns on 15 completions, nearly 20 yards a catch. So the ball charting went the wrong way and the passing game had its most yards and touchdowns of the season. Both are true, and the second one is the box score.

Where the 11 uncatchable balls went explains it. Two were throwaways. Purdy threw nine balls 15 or more yards downfield, and the charters marked four of the nine catchable. All four were caught, for a hundred three yards, and two of them were touchdowns: 23 yards to Mike Evans and the 20-yard game-winner to George Kittle. The other two were Jordan Watkins's catches of 26 34. Under 15 yards he threw 18 times, 12 were catchable, and 11 were caught. So more than half the deep balls missed, and every deep ball that was on target landed. Kittle saw six catchable balls on seven targets and caught six for 82. Evans was targeted six times, three were catchable, and he caught all three. One of the 27 was interception-worthy, third and 10 from the San Francisco 47 with one 45 left in the half, up 14 to three, incomplete to Evans. That is four percent, fourteenth this week, and about last season's rate. It was the first interception-worthy ball from this offense since Week 1.

The dressing changed again. San Francisco used play-action on four of 28 dropbacks, 14 percent, thirtieth of 32 this week. A week ago it was 52 percent, the highest rate in the league. Week 1 it was 22, fifteenth, and last season 22. Purdy completed two of the four play-action throws for 31 yards and 13 of 23 without a fake for 266. Screens stayed gone, one on 28 dropbacks, after leading the league in Week 1. Motion is the part that has not moved. 46 of 71 charted plays had a man in motion, 65 percent, third this week behind Miami and Atlanta. Week 1 it was 68 percent, first. Week 2 59, fifth. Last season 56. Three weeks, three different dressings on the pass, and the motion under all of them.

The run game's notebook line broke too, and in the good direction. Arizona showed six or fewer in the box on 18 of San Francisco's 21 charted designed runs, 86 percent, second in the league this week behind Carolina. Week 1 it was 36 percent, 20-fourth. Week 2 45, fifteenth. Last season 63. So the two weeks of heavier boxes than last year ended, and the yards came with the room: a hundred six on 21 designed runs, 5.1 a carry, fifth this week. Last week it was about three a carry, 20-fourth. Last season 3.8. Here is the part to hold loosely. The 18 runs into a light box gained 91 yards, five a carry, and the three into seven defenders gained 15, also five a carry. Christian McCaffrey carried 15 times for 75 and a touchdown, 13 of those into a light box. The longest designed run of the day was 14 yards.

On defense the throws got easier to catch, which is the third notebook line that did not hold. 41 of Jacoby Brissett's 51 throws were charted catchable, 80 percent, the eighth-highest rate any defense allowed this week. Against the Rams it was 54 percent, second-lowest in the league. Against Miami 65, 20-fourth. Last season opponents' throws against this defense were catchable 74 percent of the time. Nine of the 51 were contested, 18 percent, against 12 last season. Not one was interception-worthy, after zero against Miami and the league-high rate against the Rams. The rusher count settled between the first two weeks: five or more on 13 of 53 dropbacks, 25 percent, nineteenth this week, after 14 percent in Week 1 and 43 in Week 2. Brissett completed 10 of 13 for 69 yards against the five-plus, and both sacks came with four rushers. The box went the other way from the offense's: six or fewer on 11 of 27 Arizona designed runs, 41 percent, seventeenth this week, against 84 percent last season. The 11 runs into a light box gave up 53 yards and the 16 into seven gave up 40. 3.4 a carry allowed, twelfth-fewest this week.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Purdy, 31.3: 15 of 27 for 297 four touchdowns, +2 carries for 34. Kittle, 23.2: six catches on seven targets for 82 two scores. McCaffrey, 19.6: 15 carries for 75 and a touchdown, four catches for 41. Deebo Samuel, 15.4: 80 receiving yards and a touchdown with no reception, all on the lateral, +2 carries for 14. Evans, 10.9: three catches for 34 and a score. For Arizona, Brissett scored 25.6 on 38 of 52 for 280, two touchdowns and a rushing score. Michael Wilson, 20.4 on 11 catches for 89 and a touchdown. Jeremiyah Love, 19.4 on 21 carries for 90 and a receiving touchdown.

One line on the yardstick. Through this week every comparison in this show is to last season, a different roster. From next week it becomes this team's own three games.

For anyone new, here is the thread. San Francisco went 12 five last season. This year it beat the Rams 27 to seven, Miami 35 to 13, and Arizona 36 to 30, so it is three and oh. Last week's notebook held five lines: Purdy's throws catchable far above last year's rate, into very little traffic; heavier boxes than last year against the run; opponents' throws less catchable than last year; a defense showing light boxes far less often than last year; and motion above last season. Three of the five broke on Sunday. Purdy's catchable rate fell from first in the league to thirtieth and the contested share went from five percent to 26. The boxes went light, 86 percent, and the run game averaged five. Brissett's throws were the eighth-easiest to catch any defense allowed. The motion held, and so did the defense's fuller boxes. What the week adds is that the passing game did not need the ball charting: the deep throws that were catchable all landed, and the ones that were not cost a down apiece. The Broncos visit next. Watch whether the catchable rate was one afternoon or the start of something, and watch the box Denver shows.

That's your 49ers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the 49ers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._