49ers 20, Falcons 29 — Week 7: Four Giveaways, First Loss

San Francisco lost 29-20 at Atlanta on Sunday, its first loss after a 6-0 start. The 49ers led 14-3 after the first snap of the second quarter and did not score again until 5:09 remained, when Kyle Juszczyk's 1-yard touchdown and Eddy Pineiro's missed extra point left it 26-20. Nine drives produced three touchdowns, four turnovers, a turnover on downs and a punt. The four giveaways matched the 49ers' total through their first six games.

The passing game fell short of its standard for a third straight week, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the gap. Its 41 pass plays were worth -1.9 EPA, -0.05 a play against +0.31 through Week 6, even though 53.7% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. The split was the half: 11 pass plays before the break were worth +4.4 EPA, the 30 after it -6.3. Brock Purdy completed 27 of 40 for 288 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, and was sacked twice. George Kittle caught 8 of 10 for 88 yards. The throw that cost the most came down 26-20 with 2:42 left. A false start had turned third and 4 at the Atlanta 47 into third and 9 at the San Francisco 48, and Purdy threw short middle for Jordan Watkins; Kendal Daniels intercepted and returned it 29 yards to the 19, -5.67 EPA and -9.6 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Atlanta kicked a field goal for 29-20, and on the last drive Jessie Bates forced Kittle's fumble at the Atlanta 20 after a 22-yard catch.

The run game beat its standard when it got the ball, and success rate shows how often it worked: 60.9% of 23 rush plays succeeded, for 123 yards and two touchdowns. They were worth +2.6 EPA, +0.11 a play against +0.09 through Week 6, and 17 of them came before halftime. Christian McCaffrey ran 7 times for 39 yards and a touchdown, +3.4 EPA, and had no touch between 6:59 of the first quarter and 8:15 of the third; a third-quarter injury update had him returning to the game. Kaelon Black ran 12 times for 63 yards and -4.6 EPA, scoring from 30 yards on the first snap of the second quarter. Most of that came on one carry: up 14-9 with 4:24 left in the half, second and 1 at the Atlanta 28, Maason Smith forced his fumble and Gervon Dexter Sr. recovered, -5.6 EPA and -15.0 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game.

The pass defense was Muffed, and total EPA allowed shows how far it fell: Atlanta's 33 pass plays were worth +9.2, +0.28 a play against +0.00 allowed through Week 6. On defense a positive number is the bad direction, and 57.6% of those plays succeeded. Michael Penix Jr. completed 25 of 34 for 213 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, and was never sacked, the 49ers' third game this season without one. Drake London caught 7 of 10 for 66 yards and a 21-yard touchdown deep left on the first snap of the fourth quarter. Osa Odighizuwa's encroachment on fourth and 4 late in the half kept alive the drive that ended in a field goal.

The run defense beat its own standard, and EPA per play allowed says by how much: Atlanta's 26 rush plays were worth -6.3 EPA, -0.24 a play against -0.15 allowed through Week 6; here a negative number is good. Only 34.6% succeeded, for 85 yards. Bijan Robinson ran 20 times for 63. On third and 4 at the San Francisco 18 in the first quarter, Fred Warner dropped him for a 3-yard loss and Atlanta settled for a field goal.

The game turned on the drive that ended in Bates's interception. Down 19-14 in the third, Kittle's 20-yard catch and Luke Farrell's 14-yarder reached the Atlanta 21. A short pass to Black lost 4, and on second and 14 Purdy threw short right for Jacob Cowing; Bates intercepted at the 10, -4.0 EPA and -10.8 points of win probability. Atlanta went 90 yards on the next drive, helped by Renardo Green's illegal contact, Jack Jones's 20-yard pass interference on third and 8 and an offside on third and 2. Down 26-14, the 49ers reached the Atlanta 23 on a fourth-and-9 conversion to Cowing, lost a Watkins touchdown to replay review, and Za'Darius Smith sacked Purdy on fourth and 10.

Last week's notebook asked whether play-action would come back and whether an offense that gained 7 yards on its last 9 plays could close the next one. Play-action waits for the charting. Closing was not the job here: down 26-14, its last four drives ended on downs, in a touchdown, an interception and a fumble. The one to watch next: whether a passing game at -0.05 a play, after +0.31 through Week 6, finds its early-season level, and whether a run game that succeeded 60.9% of the time gets more than 6 carries after halftime.

That's your 49ers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the 49ers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._