49ers 38, Raiders 17 — Week 9: Five Takeaways After the Bye

San Francisco beat Las Vegas 38-17 at home on Sunday in its first game since the Week 8 bye, and went to 7-1. The 38 points were the 49ers' most this season, and the five takeaways matched their total at Seattle in Week 5. Nine drives produced four touchdowns, an Eddy Pineiro field goal, an interception and a turnover on downs, with no three-and-outs. Jaden Dugger added a 35-yard interception return for a touchdown on the first snap of the second half.

The passing game got back above its standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, says by how much: 26 pass plays worth +7.2, +0.28 a play against +0.24 through Week 7, its first positive game since Week 4. 53.8% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Brock Purdy completed 17 of 25 for 232 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked once. Jordan Watkins caught all 4 of his targets for 86 yards, the last a 37-yard touchdown deep over the middle on third and 3 with 44 seconds left in the third quarter, +4.2 EPA. The miss came at 28-17: first and 10 at his own 38, Purdy went deep right for George Kittle and Treydan Stukes intercepted, returning it 26 yards to the San Francisco 31, -6.1 EPA.

The run game won on volume, and success rate shows how steady it was: 19 of 40 rush plays, 47.5%, gained what the situation asked for, for 193 yards and two touchdowns. The 40 were the most this season, worth +5.6 EPA, +0.14 a play against +0.10 through Week 7. Christian McCaffrey ran 18 times for 68 yards and a touchdown, Kaelon Black 11 times for 70, and Purdy 7 times for 40, 36 of them on four scrambles. Up 7-0 in the first quarter, third and 15 at the Las Vegas 36, Purdy scrambled left for 18 yards, +3.1 EPA, and the drive ended in his own 1-yard touchdown scramble.

The pass defense Smashed, and total EPA allowed says by how much: Las Vegas's 32 pass plays were worth -12.9, -0.40 a play against +0.04 allowed through Week 7, the 49ers' best game this season by that measure. On defense a negative number is good. All five takeaways came on pass plays after halftime, where the Raiders' 24 throws came to -13.4. The first set the half: up 21-10 on the opening snap of the third quarter, first and 10 at the Las Vegas 30, Kirk Cousins lost the ball, recovered it at the 23 and threw for Tre Tucker, and Dugger intercepted at the 35 and ran it back for a touchdown, -8.1 EPA and 9.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Fred Warner forced Brock Bowers's fumble and recovered Michael Mayer's, and Renardo Green and Malik Mustapha intercepted Cousins in the fourth. Cousins was never sacked.

The run defense beat its own standard, and yards show how little it gave: Las Vegas's 15 rush plays gained 24 yards, worth -3.7 EPA, -0.25 a play against -0.17 allowed through Week 7; here too, negative is good. None of the 6 runs after halftime succeeded, and they lost 3 yards. Down 28-17 in the third, first and 10 at the San Francisco 22, Deommodore Lenoir dropped Mike Washington for a 3-yard loss, -1.1 EPA; Mayer fumbled on the next snap.

The game turned in four minutes of the third quarter. Up 28-17 with 7:46 left, the Stukes interception gave Las Vegas the ball at the San Francisco 31. On second and 10, Cousins hit Bowers for 5 yards, Warner forced the fumble and Dre Greenlaw recovered, upheld on review, 6.8 points of win probability. The offense handed it back: on fourth and 1 at its own 40, Foley Fatukasi stopped Purdy for no gain, -3.5 EPA. Tucker's 18-yard catch reached the 22, and on second and 13 Mayer caught a 24-yarder to the 1, where Upton Stout forced the fumble and Warner recovered in the end zone, 7.7 points of win probability. San Francisco went 80 yards in 7 plays, and Watkins's touchdown made it 35-17 with the extra point.

Before the bye, the Week 7 episode asked whether a passing game at -0.05 a play would find its early-season level, and whether a run game that succeeded 60.9% of the time would get more than 6 carries after halftime. The passing game came back to +0.28 a play. The run game got 15 rush plays after halftime, though they were worth -4.9 EPA, against +10.5 on 25 before it. The one to watch next: whether McCaffrey, successful on 7 of 18 carries here against 53.6% through Week 7, gets the ground game adding value again.

That's your 49ers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the 49ers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._