Buccaneers, Week 1 — What Repeats: Four Sacks Charted on Mayfield

Baker Mayfield threw 28 passes in Cincinnati and 24 of them were catchable. 86 percent, the third-highest rate of any offense in the league this week, against a median of 71. None of the 28 was charted as interception-worthy, and Tampa Bay was one of nine offenses that put nothing up for grabs this week. Two throws were contested. His receivers dropped one of the 24 catchable balls. Across all of last season Mayfield was catchable on 70 percent of his throws and put 15 interception-worthy balls up on 549. As a passer, it was one of the cleanest afternoons in the league this week. The Recap had the four fumbles. The charting adds a second place it went wrong, and it was not where the ball was thrown. Four sacks on 32 dropbacks were charted as quarterback-fault sacks — the quarterback's own, not the protection's — and that is 12 and a half percent of his dropbacks. Last season he was charged with 15 of those across 584 dropbacks, 2.6 percent. The Recap counted four sacks in this game. The charting puts every one of them on him.

Now what Cincinnati was doing while it happened. The Bengals sent five or more rushers on five of Tampa Bay's 36 dropbacks — 14 percent, tied for 20-eighth in the league this week, with only three defenses sending five or more less often. The average rush was 4.1 defenders. Last season this offense faced five or more on 27 percent of its dropbacks. So Tampa Bay saw five or more about half as often as it was used to, and the quarterback was charged with four sacks against a rush that rarely sent more than four.

The play-action rate is the scheme change, and it is not a small one. Tampa Bay used play-action on 13 of 36 dropbacks, 36 percent, the third-highest rate in the league this week against a median of 21. Across all of last season this offense used it on 17 percent of dropbacks. It more than doubled. Mayfield's 11 play-action throws went nine completions for 65 yards, and his 17 other throws went 14 for a hundred 51 — the same completion rate, and shorter. Motion was up too, 40 of 75 charted plays, 53 percent, eighth in the league this week and a shade above the 50 percent this offense used last year. Screens on four of 36 dropbacks, 11 percent, right where they were. The run-pass option nearly vanished, one of 51 snaps against eight percent of snaps last season, and the no-huddle went from six percent to 10.

The run game is a small sample against a slightly heavier box than usual. 15 designed runs with a charted box, 59 yards. Cincinnati showed a light box on seven of the 15, 47 percent, seventeenth in the league this week and on the median. Last season Tampa Bay ran into a light box on 58 percent of its designed runs with an average of six and a half in the box; Sunday's average was 6.6. The only reading is that Tampa Bay did not run much and did not see the light fronts it saw a year ago.

Now the defense, where the charting moved the most. Tampa Bay sent five or more rushers at Joe Burrow on 17 of 37 Cincinnati dropbacks. 46 percent, the second-highest rate in the league this week, with only Minnesota higher and the league median at 27. Last season this defense sent five or more on 34 percent of the dropbacks it faced, so it turned it up, to an average of 4.7 rushers per dropback against 4.4 a year ago. Here is what Burrow did against it: 35 charted throws, 26 catchable, 74 percent. One of the 35 was charted interception-worthy. The defense also had one interception, and the charting does not say whether it was that throw. Zero drops by his receivers. Five contested. One sack of 36 dropbacks charted as his fault. The comparison to what this defense faced last season: opposing quarterbacks were catchable on 72 percent of their throws and put 16 interception-worthy balls up on 572. So the five-or-more rate went up sharply and Burrow's accuracy against it was ordinary rather than rattled.

Against the run the defense was a shade heavier than usual. Cincinnati's 25 designed runs gained a hundred one yards, and Tampa Bay showed a light box on 11 of them, 44 percent, with an average of 6.8 defenders in the box. Last season this defense showed a light box on 50 percent of the designed runs it faced, at an average of 6.7. The Recap put the run defense at +2 and a half expected points allowed, which is not a good number; the charting says the box was there; the Recap's +2 and a half says the runs still worked.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Bucky Irving, 16.8: eight carries for 45 and a touchdown, seven catches for 48 on seven targets. Baker Mayfield, 11.6: 23 of 28 for 216, no touchdowns and no interceptions, +5 carries for 30 and the rushing score. Emeka Egbuka caught five of six for 63. Chris Godwin caught all four of his targets for 40. For Cincinnati, Mike Gesicki caught five of seven for 78 and a touchdown; Chase Brown ran 16 times for 56 and a score and added five catches; Joe Burrow went 25 of 35 for 254, one touchdown and one interception; and Ja'Marr Chase caught two of four targets for 12 yards.

A note on the comparisons, because the show's name promises something it cannot deliver yet. Through Week 3 every "last season" in this episode means all of 2025, not a run of recent weeks, because there are no recent weeks. A different roster wore this uniform last year; the ones who stayed are a year older, and some of them have a different job now. Against that baseline a number can tell you it is unusual. It cannot tell you it is true. The within-season version of this show, the one that measures Tampa Bay against its own last few games, starts working around Week 4.

The thread starts here, so here is the whole of it. The Recap set the frame: an offense that finished twentieth in expected points per play last season with a passing success rate of 42 percent, and a defense that finished third against the run and 20-eighth in the rate of pass plays it allowed to succeed. The charting adds this. The quarterback was accurate at the third-highest rate in the league this week and was charged with four sacks against a defense that sent five or more on five of 36 dropbacks. The scheme doubled its play-action. And the defense sent five or more at a rate only one team in the league exceeded, up from last year's 34 percent, and got ordinary accuracy and one interception-worthy ball out of Burrow for it. Two lines for the notebook: whether the sacks charged to Mayfield repeat when the rush rarely sends more than four, and whether a 46 percent five-or-more rate is this defense or this opponent. 28 throws is one afternoon.

That's your Buccaneers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Buccaneers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

And if you play fantasy, there's a Muffed show built around your exact roster — free at muffed.ai.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._