Buccaneers 19, Browns 23 — Week 2: Four Field Goals and a Flag

Second and four at the Cleveland 13, 45 seconds left, Tampa Bay down 23 to 19, and by the win probability model the Buccaneers were the favorite at that moment, 58 percent. Baker Mayfield threw incomplete for Ted Hurst, and a holding penalty on Graham Barton moved the ball back to the 23. 11 points of win probability gone. Second and 14, incomplete deep left. Third and 14, Mayfield scrambled for three. Fourth and 11 at the 20, 22 seconds left, Mayfield threw deep middle for Emeka Egbuka, incomplete. 26 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Tampa Bay lost 23 to 19 at home, led for about 29 minutes, was tied for about 27, and trailed for less than four. With about nine minutes left in the third quarter, up 16 to six, its chance of winning stood at 85 percent. The Buccaneers are oh and two.

Start where the points were left. Tampa Bay ran 13 snaps inside the Cleveland 20 and scored one touchdown. The Buccaneers kicked four field goals, from 59, 45, 31 31 yards. The first short one came before halftime: the defense had stopped a fourth and one at the Cleveland 34, the offense reached first and 10 at the 11 with 34 seconds left, and then a completion lost two and two passes fell incomplete. The second came in the fourth quarter with the game tied at 16. First and 10 at the Tampa Bay 30, 12 minutes left, Mayfield threw deep middle to Tez Johnson for 49 yards to the Cleveland 21, 12 points of win probability. Then a gain of four, a gain of four, and on third and two at the 13 an incompletion intended for Hurst. The one touchdown needed a nine-yard Mayfield scramble on third and nine to reach the Cleveland five, and he threw to Egbuka for the score on the next snap.

The passing game is the unit that lost this, and the first half is where it happened. For the game, 37 pass plays, sacks included, were worth −13.6 expected points added — expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is value the passing game gave back relative to what those situations were already worth. Per play, of the 28 teams that have played this week, only Pittsburgh and Atlanta were worse. 32 percent of those plays were successful, 20-fourth so far this week. Split it at halftime and the whole deficit sits on one side: 18 first-half pass plays netted 39 yards and were worth −13.8; 19 second-half pass plays were worth plus point two. The worst single snap was the interception. First and 10 at the Tampa Bay 36, a minute 19 left in the first quarter, up six to three: Mayfield threw deep left for Hurst, Myles Harden picked it off at the Cleveland 47 and ran it back 25 yards to the Tampa Bay 28. −20 points of win probability, and an unnecessary roughness penalty on the next snap moved Cleveland to the 12. The defense held that to a field goal. For the comparison, this was the pass defense that ranked 30-second of 32 in Week 1, when Jacksonville's 24 pass plays were worth +19 against it. And at the rate Tampa Bay's own passing game produced last season, when it ranked 20-second, these 37 plays would have been worth about −1.

The run game deserved a better result. 25 rush plays were worth +4.5 expected points, and of the 28 teams that have played this week, only Buffalo's run game was worth more, per play or in total. A hundred 37 rushing yards, sixth so far this week, and a 48 percent success rate, fifth. The signature run came on second and six at the Tampa Bay 29, six 27 left in the first quarter, tied at three: Bucky Irving around left end for 38 yards to the Cleveland 33. Nine points of win probability, and a field goal at the end of it. Short yardage was a strength. On third downs needing one or two yards, Tampa Bay converted four of five, all three runs among them worked, and the lone failure was the pass at the Cleveland 13. Last season this run game ranked twelfth by expected points per play, and at that rate these 25 plays would have been worth about plus point three.

The run defense did its job. Cleveland gained 46 rushing yards, the fewest any defense has allowed among the 28 teams that have played this week. 21 Browns rush plays were worth −9.9 expected points — on defense a negative number is the good direction — and per play only Cincinnati and Las Vegas have been better so far this week. 15 of the 21 gained three yards or fewer, and none reached 10. The fourth-down stop was the high point: fourth and one at the Cleveland 34, two 50 left in the second quarter, tied at six, Quinshon Judkins behind right guard, no gain, Elijah Roberts on the tackle. 10 points of win probability.

The pass defense is where the lead went. Cleveland's 32 pass plays were worth +10.4 expected points, and on this side of the ball a positive number is the bad direction: 20-third of the 28 teams that have played this week, per play. It was a second-half collapse. Before halftime, 11 Browns pass plays were worth −1.1 and took two sacks. After halftime, 21 pass plays gained a hundred 83 yards and were worth +11 and a half, with no sacks. With a minute 37 left in the third quarter and a 16 to nine lead, a face mask penalty on Yaya Diaby wiped out a second-down incompletion, and on the next snap Deshaun Watson threw short over the middle to Denzel Boston on a play that went 55 yards for the touchdown. 19 points of win probability. Then the drive that decided it: 12 plays, 68 yards, and four third downs, all converted, the last a 17-yard touchdown to Blake Whiteheart with three 57 left. Cleveland had been one of nine on third down before that drive. Last season the Browns' passing offense ranked last in the league; at the rate it passed then, those 32 plays would have been worth about −9.

The flags had a pattern. Six accepted penalties for 62 yards, and three were offensive holds. One erased a 12-yard completion on third and five, and a sack and a punt followed. The last was the one at the 13. 10 of Tampa Bay's 16 third downs needed seven yards or more, and three of those 10 converted. Overall it was seven of 16, eleventh of the 28 teams that have played this week.

Now the longer view, for anyone meeting this team for the first time. Last season Tampa Bay went eight and nine. By expected points per play the run defense was third in the league, the run game twelfth, the pass defense twentieth and the passing game 20-second. Week 1 was a 33 to 27 loss in Cincinnati with four giveaways, a passing game that ranked 20-fifth for the week and a run defense that ranked 20-fourth. This week the run defense looked like last season's again, and the run game was better than last season's. The passing game is the through line: below average last season, 20-fifth of 32 last week, 20-sixth of 28 this week, and it has now lost the ball five times in two games. Two games do not settle it, and both losses were by one score. But both losses point at the same unit.

Tampa Bay is at home against Minnesota next Sunday afternoon. The Vikings allowed three points this week. Watch the first-half passing game, and watch what happens inside the 20.

That's your Buccaneers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Buccaneers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._