Buccaneers, Week 2 — What Repeats: One Sack on Mayfield, Not Four

Last week the charters put all four sacks Baker Mayfield took in Cincinnati on him — quarterback-fault sacks, their call that the passer caused it rather than the protection. On Sunday Cleveland sacked him three times, and the charters put one of them on him. One on the offense's 40 dropbacks, two and a half percent, a shade under the team's rate across all of last season. The other scheme headline from last week went back too. Tampa Bay faked a handoff on 13 of 36 dropbacks in Cincinnati, 36 percent, third-highest in the league and about double last season's 17. Against the Browns it was eight of 40 — 20 percent, 20-fourth of the 32 teams this week, under a league median of about 25. Mayfield's seven play-action throws went five for 36 yards. Two of the loudest numbers from Week 1 look like last season again, which is what a second week is for.

The accuracy is the part of last week that did not come back. Mayfield was catchable on 23 of his 34 throws, 68 percent — 20-first of the 32 teams this week, below a median of 73. Last week he was at 86 percent, third in the league; across last season, 70. Every one of the 11 throws that were not catchable came against four or fewer rushers. When Cleveland rushed four or fewer, on 30 of Tampa Bay's 40 dropbacks, Mayfield threw 27 times: 16 catchable, 14 completions, a hundred 19 yards. All three sacks came on those snaps, and so did his one interception-worthy ball. When Cleveland sent five or more, nine dropbacks, he completed all six of his throws for 58 yards and scrambled on the other three. The interception was that interception-worthy ball, and the charters did not mark it catchable. The offense left the pocket on seven of 40 dropbacks, 17 and a half percent, nineteenth this week, after 36 percent and third in the league in Cincinnati.

What did carry over is the tempo and the motion. Tampa Bay put someone in motion on 48 of 81 charted plays, 59 percent, sixth of the 32 teams this week; last week 53 percent and eighth; last season 50. It went no-huddle 10 percent of the time, sixth this week, after 10 percent and eighth last week, against six percent across last season. The run-pass option stayed rare: three of 62 snaps, five percent, a week after one of 51, against eight percent last season.

The run game revisits last week's question about the box. Tampa Bay ran 22 designed runs for a hundred 11 yards, about five a run, third of the 32 teams this week behind only the Rams and the Bills. Last season it averaged 3.8; last week, 3.9. It did it against fronts heavier than last season's: Cleveland showed six or fewer in the box on nine of the 22, 41 percent, eighteenth this week, where last season Tampa Bay saw a light box on 58 percent of its designed runs and last week on 47. The counterintuitive part is where the yards came from. 13 runs into seven-man boxes gained 94 yards, Bucky Irving's 38-yarder among them. The nine runs against a light box gained 17. The Browns never put eight in the box.

Now a figure that did repeat, on the defense's side. Tampa Bay sent five or more pass rushers on 18 of Cleveland's 35 dropbacks, 51 percent. Of the 32 teams this week, only the Vikings, the Lions and the Dolphins sent five or more at a higher rate. Last week it was 46 percent, second in the league. Across all of last season this defense sent five or more on 34 percent of the dropbacks it faced. The rate did not fade once Cleveland got going: six of 12 dropbacks before halftime, 12 of 23 after. In catchable balls it bought close to nothing. Deshaun Watson was catchable on 15 of his 16 throws against five or more. For the game he was catchable on 28 of 30, 93 percent, and of the 32 defenses this week only one allowed a higher rate. Across last season, quarterbacks facing this defense were catchable on 71 and a half percent and threw 16 interception-worthy balls in 572. On Sunday Watson threw none, and no sack was charted to him. Cleveland also screened on six of those dropbacks, against seven percent by opponents last season, but the six gained 23 yards between them, a small share of Cleveland's 238 passing yards.

And the same defense loaded the box. Cleveland ran 18 designed runs with a box charted, and Tampa Bay put six or fewer in it on three — 17 percent, the third-lowest light-box rate of the 32 defenses this week, with only the Steelers and the Cardinals lower. Last season this defense showed a light box on 50 percent of the designed runs it faced; last week, 44. The average box on Sunday was 7.3. Those 18 runs gained 32 yards, 1.8 a run, the fewest per designed run any defense allowed this week. Last season this defense allowed about 4.2; last week, 4.0. A defense that sends five or more on half the dropbacks and puts seven or more in the box on 15 of 18 runs is spending bodies near the line on every down. Against the run it held. Against the pass it did not.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Mayfield, 12.2: 21 of 34 for a hundred 82 yards, a touchdown and an interception, +4 carries for 29. Irving, 11: 17 carries for 89 yards, and four catches on four targets for one yard. Emeka Egbuka, 8.8: three catches on five targets for 16 yards and the touchdown. Chris Godwin caught all three of his targets for 46, 7.3. Tez Johnson caught one ball on four targets, the 49-yarder, and Ted Hurst two of seven for 27. For Cleveland, Watson scored 19.7 on 24 of 30 for 238 two touchdowns, and Denzel Boston 18 on five catches for 95 and a score.

The comparisons need a label, and here it is. Through Week 3 this show measures Tampa Bay against all of 2025, not against its own recent games, because there are only two of those. Last season's roster is not this one, and the players who stayed are a year older. So a figure here can tell you it is unusual; it cannot yet tell you it is true. Week 1 is last week, one game, and not a rate for the season.

Here is how the two weeks sort. Moving the same way both times, away from last season: the defense's five-or-more rate, 46 and then 51 percent, against 34; motion, 53 and then 59, against 50; the no-huddle, 10 both weeks against six; the run-pass option, rare both weeks; and a heavier run front faced than last season both times. Reversed: the play-action rate, 36 and then 20; the quarterback-fault sacks, four and then one; the catchable rate, 86 and then 68; and leaving the pocket, 36 and then 17 and a half. Two games settle none of it. They do say the scheme and the defensive plan are holding while the quarterback's afternoons swing.

For anyone meeting this team here: last season Tampa Bay went eight and nine, and by the Recap's measure the run defense was third in the league and the passing game 20-second. This season is a 33 to 27 loss in Cincinnati and a 23 to 19 loss at home to Cleveland, oh and two. Last week's notebook asked two things. Whether the sacks charged to Mayfield would repeat: they did not, one this week. Whether a 46 percent five-or-more rate was this defense or that opponent: a second opponent, 51 percent, so it looks like this defense. The new line replaces it. Joe Burrow was catchable on 74 percent against that rush last week and Watson on 93 this week. The question is no longer whether Tampa Bay sends five. It is what sending five buys.

That's your Buccaneers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Buccaneers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

And if you play fantasy, there's a Muffed show built around your exact roster — free at muffed.ai.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._