Buccaneers 16, Vikings 23 — Week 3: Two of Seventeen on Third Down

Third and 15 at the Tampa Bay 29, four 28 left in the third quarter, down 17 to 13. Baker Mayfield hit Bucky Irving short right for 15 yards and a first down, and a chop block brought it back: third and 29 from the 15. Next snap, Mayfield went deep right to Chris Godwin for 85 yards and a touchdown that would have given Tampa Bay its first lead of the day. Holding, on Luke Goedeke. Third and 36 from the eight, a six-yard run, a punt. Tampa Bay lost to the Vikings 23 to 16 at home, never led, and is oh and three. Its pass defense held Minnesota to the lowest success rate any defense has allowed in a game this season.

Third down is the number that decided it. Two of 17, 12 percent, last of the 28 teams that have played this week and second-worst of the 92 team games this season. This offense converted half its third downs in Week 1 and 44 percent in Week 2. 10 of Sunday's needed seven yards or more, and no play converted one; both conversions came on third and two. Then the flags: the run to the three, a catch in the red zone, the 15-yard catch on third and 15, the 85-yard touchdown, a 14-yard scramble in the fourth quarter, all erased by offensive fouls. By expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — the offense finished at −15.7 across pass and run, last of the 28 teams that have played this week.

The passing game succeeded on 26 percent of its 43 pass plays, a count that includes six sacks. A successful play is one that gained what the situation asked for. That is 20-seventh of the 28 teams that have played this week, and in the 92 team games this season only Minnesota's offense, in this same game, was lower. The total was −11.3 expected points. At the rate Tampa Bay passed over the first two weeks, when it ranked 20-fifth and then 20-ninth of 32, those 43 plays would have been worth about −13.4, so this was the same passing game, slightly better, against a defense that ranked second against the pass last season. At Tampa Bay's own rate last season, when it ranked 20-second, about −1. The throw that worked best by expected points was the touchdown: first and 10 at the Minnesota 40, six 50 left in the first quarter, down 10 to nothing, Mayfield deep middle to Hurst for 40 yards. +3.4 expected points and 12 points of win probability — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment.

Tampa Bay's best chance came in the second quarter: first and goal at the Minnesota seven, seven 56 left in the half, down 10 to seven, win probability at 64 percent, the highest it reached all afternoon. Irving ran to the three; holding. Mayfield hit Irving for five; holding again. First and 27, and the drive ended in a 28-yard field goal to tie it. The second trip started at the Minnesota 22 after an interception, down 17 to 10: three yards, an incompletion, a sack on third and seven, a 38-yard field goal. Two trips inside the 20, no touchdowns.

The run game went the other way from Week 2. 21 rush plays, 57 yards, the third-fewest of the 28 teams that have played this week, and no run of 10 yards or more. −4.4 expected points, 20-third so far this week. Against Cleveland this run game was second in the league per play, +4 and a half on 25 carries; at the rate of the first two weeks together, Sunday's 21 would have been worth about +1 and a half. At last season's rate, when it ranked in the top 12, about +4 tenths.

The pass defense is the part of Sunday that contradicts the first two weeks. Minnesota ran 32 pass plays and six were successful — 19 percent, the lowest success rate any defense has allowed in the 92 team games this season. −12.1 expected points; on defense a negative number is the good direction. That was second of the 28 teams that have played this week, behind only Jacksonville. At the rate of the first two weeks, Sunday's 32 would have been worth about +3 and a half; at last season's rate, when the pass defense ranked in the bottom half, about +2 and a half. One interception: third and 11 at the Minnesota 31, eight 41 left in the third, down 17 to 10, Kyler Murray short middle and Robinson took it at the 22, −4 and a half expected points for Minnesota. The one it gave up was the biggest offensive snap of the game for either team: third and eight at the Tampa Bay 41, four 17 left in the half, tied at 10, Murray deep left to Jordan Addison for a 41-yard touchdown. 18 points of win probability.

Minnesota converted two of 16 third downs, an 88 percent stop rate, second of the 28 teams that have played this week, behind the team it was playing. Minnesota never ran an offensive snap inside the Tampa Bay 20, the only team of the 28 this week that did not. The run defense was solid: 78 yards on 23 rush plays, −2.4, eleventh this week, where the first two weeks' rate would have produced about −3 and a half. The run that hurt gained three: fourth and one at the Tampa Bay 35, six oh eight left, down 17 to 16, Aaron Jones up the middle. Nine points of win probability, and that drive became a 56-yard field goal.

The defense allowed 16 points. The other seven came from the kicking game. Fourth and five at the Tampa Bay 45, nine minutes left in the first quarter, down three to nothing: a 41-yard punt to the Minnesota 14, and Price returned it 86 yards for a touchdown. −6.9 expected points and 18 points of win probability, one of the two biggest swings of the game, alongside Addison's touchdown. Later, Chase McLaughlin hit from 54 to make it 17 to 16 with nine oh six left. A Tampa Bay unnecessary-roughness flag on the kickoff that followed handed Minnesota the ball at its own 45, and that drive became the 56-yarder.

Down 20 to 16 with three 10 left, Tampa Bay got to its own 39 and faced fourth and 13 with one 54 left. Mayfield threw short right for Gainwell, Andrew Van Ginkel intercepted at the 41, and the play description records Mayfield injured on it. 13 points of win probability. Minnesota kicked a 43-yarder with 37 seconds left, and Daniels, at quarterback for the last drive, was intercepted at the Minnesota three on fourth and one with eight seconds left.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Tampa Bay went eight and nine with a passing game 20-second by expected points per play, a run game in the top 12, a pass defense in the bottom half and a run defense in the top five. Week 1 was a 33 to 27 loss at Cincinnati with four turnovers. Week 2 was a 23 to 19 loss at home to Cleveland, in which the run game ranked second in the league and the pass defense 20-sixth. Sunday flipped both: the pass defense went to second of the 28 teams that have played this week, and the run game to 20-third. What did not move is the passing offense — 20-fifth and 20-ninth of 32 in the first two weeks, 20-sixth of the 28 so far this week, below last season's rate in all three games. Three losses, by six, four and seven points. Three games do not settle a season. But on Sunday the defense allowed 16 points, and the offense spent the afternoon handing its own gains back.

Tampa Bay is home against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._