Buccaneers, Week 3 — What Repeats: Sending Five Bought Something

Last week's notebook ended on a question: not whether Tampa Bay sends five, but what sending five buys. Sunday answered it. Tampa Bay sent five or more pass rushers on 14 of Kyler Murray's 34 dropbacks, 41 percent, eighth-highest of the 32 defenses this week. Against those five or more, Murray threw 11 passes. Five were catchable, four were completed, and they gained 22 yards, with A'Shawn Robinson's interception among them. Against four or fewer he threw 18, for 146 yards. For the game he was catchable on 17 of 29 throws, 59 percent, and only one defense allowed a lower rate this week. The rush has been there all three weeks, on 41 percent of dropbacks or more each time, against 34 across last season. What changed is what it bought. Joe Burrow's 16 throws against five or more gained 91 yards in Week 1, and Deshaun Watson's 16 gained 117 a week ago, 15 of them catchable. Murray's 11 gained 22. Four of his throws were throwaways and only three of his 29 were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, so the defense was not winning at the catch point. Against the extra rush, fewer than half his throws were catchable to begin with.

The front behind that rush was heavier than last season's again, and the run defense held again. Minnesota ran 21 designed runs, scrambles left out, for 61 yards, 2.9 a run, the seventh-fewest any defense allowed this week. Tampa Bay showed six or fewer in the box on seven of the 21, 33 percent, tied for twentieth. Three weeks in, the light-box rate has read 44, 17 33 percent, under last season's 50 each time. The front is the part of this team that has not moved.

Now the offense, which faced the same idea from the other side at a heavier dose. Minnesota sent five or more rushers on 29 of Tampa Bay's 46 dropbacks. 63 percent, the most any offense faced this week; Philadelphia was second at 52. This is new. Opponents sent five or more at Tampa Bay on 14 percent of dropbacks in Week 1 and about 22 in Week 2, and 28 percent across last season. Baker Mayfield took all 29 of those dropbacks, and five of the six sacks came on them. The charters put none of the six on him, so quarterback-fault sacks have now read four, one and none. His 23 throws against five or more gained 136 yards with no interception-worthy ball. His 11 against four or fewer gained 81, and that is where his one interception-worthy ball was: the fourth-and-13 throw Andrew Van Ginkel intercepted. The heavy rush did not produce the giveaway. It produced the sacks.

The accuracy has come down every week. Mayfield was catchable on 21 of 34 throws, 62 percent. In Week 1 it was 86 percent, third in the league; in Week 2, 68; last season, 70. Then the receivers dropped three of the offense's 23 catchable balls, 13 percent, the highest drop rate of any offense this week, against five percent last season. The drops were charted on throws to Irving, Otton and Durham. Only two of 37 throws were contested. The balls were not going into traffic. They were going to the ground.

Two scheme figures fell under last season's rates for the first time. Six of 46 dropbacks carried a fake, 13 percent, 30-first of 32, ahead of only the Jets. Play-action has read 36, 20 13 percent, against 17 last season. Motion fell to 40 of 88 charted plays, 45 percent, nineteenth this week, after 53 59 in the first two weeks and 50 across last season.

And the run game hit the front it had been beating. Tampa Bay ran 18 designed runs for 42 yards, 2.3 a run, third-lowest of the 32 offenses this week. Minnesota showed six or fewer in the box on exactly one of the 18, the lowest light-box rate any offense saw this week. The other 17 went into a seven-man box and gained 36 yards, the longest of them eight. Last week 13 runs into seven-man boxes gained 94 yards, and the read was that the box was not deciding the yards. This week the heavy box and the short gains came together. Last season this offense saw a light box on 58 percent of its designed runs; this season, 47, 41 six.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Mayfield went 17 of 34 for 217 yards, a touchdown and an interception, 11.3. Ted Hurst caught one of three targets, the 40-yard touchdown, 10 and a half. Emeka Egbuka caught five of nine for 62, 8.7. Cade Otton caught three of six for 56, 7.1. Bucky Irving ran 15 times for 46, 6.8. Jalon Daniels threw three passes on the last drive, none complete, one intercepted.

One label before the thread. Through this week the comparisons run against last season, a different roster with a year less on everyone, and this is the last week that is the yardstick. From here on the show measures this team against its own season.

For anyone joining now: the Buccaneers went eight and nine last season with a run defense in the top five and a passing game that ranked 20-second by expected points per play. This season is a 33 to 27 loss at Cincinnati, a 23 to 19 loss at home to Cleveland and a 23 to 16 loss at home to Minnesota, oh and three. Last week's notebook said the defensive plan and the scheme were holding while the quarterback's afternoons swung, and asked what sending five buys. The plan held: five or more on four dropbacks in 10, a heavy front, and this week a passing game held to 59 percent catchable. That is what sending five buys, once. The scheme did not hold as cleanly: play-action and motion both fell under last season's rates for the first time. The quarterback's afternoon swung down again, 86 to 68 to 62 percent catchable, with his receivers dropping the most balls in the league. And the new line is one the offense did not have last week. Opponents had left it alone, under a quarter of dropbacks in both of the first two weeks, and Minnesota sent five or more on 63. Green Bay comes to Tampa next, and the charting will say whether Sunday was one opponent or the new normal.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._