Buccaneers 14, Packers 17 — Week 4: A Fumble and a Pick, No Points

Fourth and 11 at the Green Bay 47, a minute 34 left, Tampa Bay down 17 to 14. Jalon Daniels threw short middle for Ted Hurst, Nixon was ruled to have intercepted it, and replay made it an incompletion, which changed nothing that mattered. Turnover on downs, and Jordan Love knelt three times. By win probability, the chance of winning the game after the snap against before it, that throw cost the Buccaneers 20 points. Tampa Bay lost 17 to 14 at Raymond James Stadium and is oh and four, by six, four, seven and now three points. Daniels, who had thrown three passes all season before Sunday, threw every Tampa Bay pass.

The passing game opens on expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, against what that situation was already worth. 30 pass plays, a count that includes three sacks, were worth −4.3, with a hundred 48 yards, one touchdown and 43 percent of plays successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. At the rate this passing game played over the first three weeks, those 30 plays would have been worth about −8.8. Better than Tampa Bay's own September, and most of the ball was on target: Daniels was charted catchable on 21 of 27 throws, 78 percent, seventh of the 30 charted offenses this week, above 71 percent through Weeks 1 to 3. Play-action came back, on 11 of 36 dropbacks, 31 percent, against 22 before Sunday, and Daniels completed seven of eight play-action throws for 54 yards. Pre-snap motion on 67 percent of charted plays was the most of the 30.

The cost sat in a handful of throws. Three were charted interception-worthy, 11 percent of his throws, the highest rate of the 30 charted offenses this week; in the first three weeks Tampa Bay threw two in 99. Eight of the 27 were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, as many as this offense threw in all of Weeks 1 through 3. Two were intercepted. First and 10 at the Green Bay 49, seven 15 left in the first quarter, nothing to nothing: deep left for Emeka Egbuka, and Williams intercepted at the 32. Then second and 10 at the Green Bay 41, 41 seconds left in the half, tied at seven: short left for Kameron Johnson, Cooper intercepted it and ran it back 18 yards to the Tampa Bay 44, and Green Bay kicked a 58-yard field goal with two seconds left in the half. 13 and a half points of win probability on that one.

Last week's notebook asked whether Minnesota's extra rush was one opponent or the new normal. Green Bay sent five or more pass rushers on 19 of Tampa Bay's 36 dropbacks, 53 percent, third-most of the 30 charted defenses this week, against 35 percent across Weeks 1 through 3. Minnesota was not one opponent. Daniels left the pocket 11 times and scrambled six for 46 yards, the longest 21 on third and two at his own 42 in the third quarter, and none of the three sacks was charted on him.

The run game finished on the right side of zero: 31 rush plays, scrambles included, for a hundred 41 yards, a touchdown and +2.0, where the first three weeks' rate would have produced about −0.7. 45 percent were successful. Bucky Irving carried 16 times for 61 yards, no run longer than seven. Green Bay showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 12 of the 25 designed runs, 48 percent, against 31 percent before Sunday, and those 25 gained 95 yards. The touchdown drive is where the short yardage held. Third and one at the Green Bay 19, Sean Tucker stopped for no gain; fourth and one, Tucker up the middle for eight to the 11; Daniels around left end for nine to the two; Tucker in from two yards out on the next snap. Seven to seven.

The pass defense allowed +6.9 expected points on 30 Green Bay pass plays, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. At the rate it allowed over the first three weeks, those plays would have been worth about −1.3. Two touchdown passes, a hundred 97 yards, half of Green Bay's pass plays successful, and no sacks. The charting shows how. Tampa Bay sent five or more on eight of Love's 30 dropbacks, 27 percent, nineteenth of 30, after 46 percent across the first three weeks. Love was catchable on 27 of 30 throws, 90 percent, the highest of the 30 charted offenses this week. His receivers dropped four of those 27, and only four throws were contested.

The run defense was the better half. 22 Green Bay rush plays for 98 yards, no touchdowns, and −6.0 expected points, where on defense a big negative is great. The first three weeks' rate would have produced about −3.1. Two runs did most of the yardage, 27 by Chris Brooks and 31 by Kaleb Johnson; the other 20 gained 40. And the goal line held once. A pass interference flag on Parrish put Green Bay at first and one at the one early in the second quarter: Brooks lost two, MarShawn Lloyd lost three, Love hit Lloyd for four to the two, and only on fourth and two did Matthew Golden score. That drive needed three fourth-down conversions.

The turning point was a nine-minute stretch in which the defense gave the offense two chances and the offense used neither. Up 17 to 14, first and goal at the three with nine 13 left, Johnson ran up the middle; Smith knocked the ball out and McCollum recovered at the four. 19 points of win probability, and −5.9 expected points for Green Bay, the costliest snap of the game by that measure. From the four, Tampa Bay went two yards, one yard, an eight-yard Egbuka catch on third and seven, no gain, −3, and then a fumbled snap on third and 13 that Daniels recovered at the three and was brought down at the one. Fourth and 24, a punt from the one, and Green Bay started at the Tampa Bay 33. Lloyd caught one for 12, a false start backed Green Bay up, and on first and 15 at the 26 with four 26 left, Love went deep left for Golden and Parrish intercepted at the seven. 21 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the day. The last drive reached the Green Bay 46 on three Irving runs, a Chris Godwin catch and two Cade Otton catches, and then came an incompletion, a six-yard sack by Williams, five yards to Egbuka on third and 16, and the fourth-down throw.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Daniels, 11.4: 19 of 27 for a hundred 48, a touchdown and two interceptions, +8 carries for 55. Kenny Gainwell, 9.7, on two catches for 22, one of them the 10-yard touchdown on third and seven to open the fourth quarter. Tucker, seven, on three carries and the score. Godwin 6.1 on six catches for 31, the team's high of seven targets. Irving 6.1 with no target. Otton 5.7 on four for 37.

For anyone new to this show: Tampa Bay lost at Cincinnati, then at home to Cleveland, Minnesota and now Green Bay, four losses by 20 points combined. Last week's notebook said the defensive plan was holding and asked whether the heavy rush at the offense was one opponent. Sunday answered both the wrong way. The rush came again, from a second team. And the defense that sent five or more on nearly half of its opponents' dropbacks through September sent it on fewer than three in 10, and allowed the highest catchable rate of any defense charted this week. The new line is the quarterback's: three interception-worthy throws in a game after two in three weeks. The question for the notebook is which of the two numbers moves first, the extra rush the defense stopped sending, or the throws that end in traffic.

That's your Buccaneers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Buccaneers show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._