Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16 — Week 5: Irving's 165, No Turnovers

Tampa Bay beat Dallas 24-16 on the road on Thursday night, and it did it on the ground and without a turnover. The Buccaneers ran 37 times for 243 yards and two touchdowns. Bucky Irving had 165 of those yards on 21 carries and scored twice, once on the ground and once on a 5-yard catch. The defense intercepted Dak Prescott twice inside the Tampa Bay 30, the last with 1:22 left and Dallas 24 yards from the end zone.

The passing game was Smashed by expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth. Its 26 pass plays were worth +5.9 EPA, +0.23 a play, against -0.26 a play through Week 4. Of those, 46.2% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Jalon Daniels completed 19 of 25 for 189 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions, and one throw carried the night. Up 14-10 with 9:36 left in the third, second and 14 at his own 21, on the drive after Tampa Bay's defense had taken the ball back: Daniels went deep right to Tez Johnson for 64 yards before Malik Hooker pushed him out at the Dallas 15. That was +5.4 EPA and 16.5 points of win probability, and Irving scored on the drive to make it 21-10.

The charting says the ball was cleaner than it has been. 21 of Daniels' 25 throws were catchable, 84%, against 76.7% on his 30 throws through Week 4. Three were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 12%, after 30%. Play-action went up to 10 of 31 dropbacks, 32.3%, from 24.1%, though it was short work: 6 of 8 for 23 yards. Dallas sent five or more on 9 of 31 dropbacks, 29%, against 39.2% this offense saw through Week 4, and sacked him once. On third and 21 in the third he hit Egbuka for 21 yards deep left, and Tampa Bay kicked a field goal.

The run game was the night's real smash, and its success rate says so: 51.4% of 37 rush plays were successful, worth +4.3 EPA. Per play that is +0.12, against +0.01 through Week 4. The 32 designed runs gained 218 yards, after 307 on 80 across the first four weeks. Dallas showed six or fewer in the box on 16 of them, 50%, against 36.2% through Week 4. With 14:54 left in the third, down 10-7 at its own 14, Irving ran off left tackle for 72 yards before Caleb Downs pushed him out at the Dallas 14. Emeka Egbuka ran around left end for a 14-yard touchdown on the next snap, the lead Tampa Bay kept.

The pass defense gave up yards and took the game. Dallas' 42 pass plays went for 316 yards and 52.4% success, yet were worth -2.3 EPA, -0.06 a play, against +0.02 allowed through Week 4; on defense a negative number is the good direction. The interceptions are why. Third and 3 at the Tampa Bay 27, down 14-10 in the third, Prescott threw short middle and Yaya Diaby intercepted at the 24, -4.8 EPA for Dallas. Down 24-16 with 1:22 left, second and 1 at the 24, Alex Anzalone intercepted a throw for Jake Ferguson at the 12. Tampa Bay sent five or more on 17 of 42 dropbacks, 40.5%. Dallas' throws were contested on 26.2% of attempts, against the 12.9% this defense allowed through Week 4, and Dallas receivers dropped 6 catchable balls. George Pickens still caught 9 for 130 and a touchdown.

The run defense was quiet because Dallas barely ran. Its 13 rush plays were worth +0.7 EPA, +0.05 a play against -0.17 allowed through Week 4, and gained 50 yards. Javonte Williams had 45 on 12 carries and the opening drive's touchdown, set up by a 21-yarder up the middle. David Walker and A'Shawn Robinson stopped him for no gain at the 4 on that drive before he scored two snaps later. Tampa Bay showed six or fewer in the box on 7 of 13 designed runs, 53.8%, against 33.7% through Week 4.

The game turned in the third quarter, between 10:51 and 9:36: Diaby's interception at 10:51, then Johnson's 64-yarder at 9:36. A 14-10 lead with Dallas at the Tampa Bay 27 became 21-10. Tampa Bay converted 7 of 13 third downs, and the defense stopped Dallas on 6 of 10. The offense did get stopped once at the goal line: fourth and 1 at the Dallas 1, up 24-10 in the fourth, Sean Tucker went up the middle for no gain. Three drives ended in three-and-outs.

The scheme leaned on movement and options. Pre-snap motion came on 58 of 90 charted plays, 64.4%, against 55.8% through Week 4. Run-pass options rose to 8, 12.7% of snaps, from 2.9%. Screens rose to 4 of 31 dropbacks, 12.9%, from 8.9%. There was no no-huddle at all, after 8.4%. Daniels left the pocket 8 times on 31 dropbacks.

Last week's notebook asked which would move first: the extra rush the defense had stopped sending against Green Bay, or the throws ending in traffic. Both moved, the right way. The defense sent five or more on 40.5% of Dallas dropbacks, back in line with its 41.9% through Week 4, and Daniels threw one interception-worthy ball, a throw a defender should have caught, in 25, after 3 in his first 30. Dallas did not catch it. The one to watch next: whether defenses keep giving Irving light boxes after 218 yards on designed runs, and whether Daniels' contested rate stays near this 12%.

That's your Buccaneers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Buccaneers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._