Titans 20, Eagles 24 — Week 2: Plus Two in Turnovers and Lost

Third and 22 at the Philadelphia 36, tied at 17, two 44 left. Tennessee handed the ball to Tyjae Spears, he went around left end for 27 yards, and he was pushed out of bounds at the nine. 19 points of win probability on one carry, and the Titans were at 78 percent to win, the highest they got all day. Then first and goal from the nine: Jalen Carter sacked Cam Ward for a loss of nine. Tony Pollard for three, Spears for one, and Joey Slye kicked a 33-yard field goal at the two-minute mark. 20 to 17. Philadelphia, out of timeouts, went 65 yards, converted two third and sixes along the way, and scored from the three with 14 seconds left. Tennessee lost 24 to 20 in Nashville and is oh and two.

The run game is the headline, and it is a headline this team did not have last year. 29 rush plays were worth +3.9 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, only Buffalo and Tampa Bay have produced more on the ground in total, and per play Tennessee was fourth. 48 percent of those rush plays were successful, meaning they kept the offense on schedule, also fourth so far this week. For the comparison: last season this run game ranked 20-seventh in the league, and at that rate the same 29 plays would have been worth about −2. It built as the game went, 10 rush plays for 38 yards before halftime and 19 for 84 after. The honest version is that three runs carried the yardage. Pollard's 13 around left end on third and one, his 18 off left tackle early in the fourth quarter, and Spears' 27 add up to 58 of the hundred 22 yards. The other 26 rush plays gained 64, and 17 of the 29 gained three yards or fewer. Both touchdowns were Ward from the one, the first on fourth and one in the first quarter, the second a scramble around left end on third and one that, with the extra point, tied the game at 17 late in the third.

The first of those touchdowns finished a drive that started at the Philadelphia 10, and the reason is the play of the day on defense. Third and eight at the Tennessee eight, scoreless, six 11 left in the first quarter. Jalen Hurts threw short right for DeVonta Smith, Amani Hooker intercepted it two yards deep in the end zone and returned it 92 yards to the Philadelphia 10. 28 points of win probability, the second-biggest swing of the game, and worth more than nine expected points by itself. Marcus Harris added a second interception at the Tennessee 14 on third and 12 with six oh eight left in a tie game. +2 in turnover margin ties the Raiders and Vikings for second-best so far this week behind Carolina, and the offense has not given the ball away in either game this season.

So how does a team win the turnovers by two, run the ball that well, and lose. Third down on defense. Philadelphia converted 11 of 18. Tennessee's stop rate, 39 percent, is 20-fifth of the 28 teams that have played this week; only Washington, Miami and Detroit have been worse. And the Eagles were not living in third and short. 10 of the 18 needed seven yards or more and four of those converted, including three of the five times it was third and 12: 27 yards to Dontayvion Wicks on the opening drive, 15 to Wicks in the second quarter, 13 to Smith in the fourth. On the final drive it was third and six from the Philadelphia 39, 20 yards to Wicks, and third and six from the Tennessee 22, 19 to Smith down to the three. Last week this defense stopped nine of 11 third downs, tied for fourth in the league. That did not carry over.

The pass defense number needs the same care. Philadelphia's 40 pass plays were worth +8.8 expected points, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction; nineteenth per play so far this week. But that total includes Hooker's interception, which was worth −9.2 on its own. On the other 39 pass plays the Eagles produced about +18. 264 passing yards allowed is 20-second of 28. There were three sacks, the biggest Jacob Martin's 11-yard loss on third and 12 on the opening drive of the third quarter. Last season this pass defense ranked 20-ninth, and at that rate 40 pass plays would have been worth about +7. Last week it was 20-eighth. The takeaways nearly won the game. The down-to-down results have not changed yet.

The run defense held up its end. 32 Philadelphia rush plays, 89 yards, −6 expected points, eleventh per play so far this week. No run of 10 yards or more, a long of nine, and 18 of the 32 gained three yards or fewer. After halftime the Eagles ran 10 times for 19 yards. Last season this unit ranked 20-third.

The passing offense was small and mostly clean. 36 percent of its pass plays were successful, 20-second so far this week, and 22 pass plays produced −0.1 expected points, break-even, seventeenth. A hundred 83 yards, 20-third, and no touchdown passes. Four completions made up a hundred 21 of those yards: 28 to Elic Ayomanor on third and 13 27 to Spears on the next snap to set up a field goal before the half, 25 to Calvin Ridley on the third-quarter touchdown drive, and 41 to Ayomanor with four 31 left in a tie game, worth 12 points of win probability. Break-even is not nothing here. Last season this passing game ranked 30-first, and at that rate 22 pass plays would have cost about five expected points. Last week 35 pass plays cost about seven.

Where it leaked was finishing and flags. 14 plays inside the 20 produced two touchdowns, and two trips ended in field goals. Before the half, first and 10 at the Philadelphia 18 with 43 seconds left became a one-yard run, a false start, an incompletion, a three-yard run on third and 14, and a 37-yard kick. The late one you have heard. Seven penalties were accepted against Tennessee in all. After the 41-yarder, a hold wiped out a run, Spears lost three, an illegal formation made it second and 28, and a six-yard completion left third and 22.

Now the longer view, for anyone joining this week. Last season Tennessee went three and 14, ranked 30-first in passing offense and 20-ninth in pass defense by expected points per play, and was in the bottom two in the league on third down at 32 percent. In Week 1 the Titans lost 23 to 10 at home to the Jets and gained 208 yards, 30-first of 32. This week they gained 305, converted six of 13 third downs, tied with Seattle for eighth so far this week, and led a team that won 11 games last year with two minutes to play. They led for about eight minutes in all, and the game was tied for about 35. That is a different afternoon from anything last season or last week suggested, and it is also oh and two. Two games do not settle whether the run game is this good or whether the pass defense is still last year's. The first is new evidence. The second has now allowed positive expected points per play last season, last week and this week.

Tennessee visits the Giants next Sunday afternoon. Watch third down on defense, and watch whether the run game holds its success rate.

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_Data via nflverse._