Titans 7, Giants 12 — Week 3: Stopped Twice at the Seven

First and goal at the Giants seven, 24 seconds left, Tennessee down 12 to seven. Cam Ward threw short left for Elic Ayomanor, and Jevon Holland intercepted it in the end zone. Before that snap the win probability model — its read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — gave the Titans 49 percent. The interception took 46 points of it away, more than three times any other snap in the game. By expected points added, which measures what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position against what that situation was already worth, it was −4 and a half. Moments before, on fourth and one at the Giants 24, a Giants encroachment penalty had handed Tennessee a first down. The Titans lost 12 to seven at the Giants on Sunday, never led at any point, and are oh and three.

The game came in two halves that do not look like the same offense. Before halftime Tennessee ran 19 offensive plays and three of them were successful plays, meaning they gained what the down and distance asked for. That is 16 percent. 54 yards, −10.9 expected points, and the first five possessions were all three-and-outs; of the 28 teams that have played this week, only Minnesota had more three-and-outs in its whole game. Joey Slye's 59-yard field goal from the 41 went wide left with 46 seconds left in the half. After halftime: 38 plays, 208 yards, 53 percent successful, +2 and a half expected points, and all three possessions reached the Giants seven or closer. Those three drives produced seven points.

The first of them ended where the last one did. Down 12 to nothing, Tennessee opened its first second-half possession with Tony Pollard runs of nine, six, four and two, and reached first and 10 at the Giants 12. Pollard ran for five to the seven. Then three straight incompletions: second and five, third and five, and on fourth and five with one 11 left in the third quarter, the Titans went for it rather than kick, and Ward's throw for Gunnar Helm fell incomplete. The next possession went the length of the field from the Titans nine, opened by Pollard's 16-yard run, and on third and four at the Giants four with five 39 left Ward hit Robinson on the right for the touchdown: +2.7 expected points, nine points of win probability, 12 to seven. The last one started at the Titans 23 with three oh three left and took 12 plays to reach first and goal at the seven, the longest of them an 18-yard throw to Pollard on third and seven. The thirteenth play was the interception.

The passing game finished at −6 and a half expected points on 36 pass plays, with 181 yards, a touchdown and the interception. That per-play rate is 20-fourth of the 28 teams that have played this week. At the rate Tennessee passed over the first two weeks, those same 36 plays would have been worth about −4.7; at last season's rate, when this passing game ranked 30-first, about −8. The final snap is more than the whole gap: the other 35 were worth about −2, better than that first-two-weeks rate. No sacks counted — the one takedown of Ward was wiped out by a face mask penalty — and no completion went longer than 20 yards. 44 percent of the pass plays were successful, fifteenth so far this week.

The run game had been this team's best unit: it ranked in the top six in the league in both of the first two weeks. Sunday it was 21 rush plays, 81 yards and −1.9 expected points, sixteenth of the 28 teams so far this week, and a third of the runs were successful plays, tied for nineteenth. At the Weeks 1 and 2 rate, those 21 would have been worth about +2.7. And the Giants run defense ranked last in the league last season; at the rate it allowed then, about +3 and a half. Most of the shortfall was the first half: six runs for 13 yards. After halftime, 15 for 68.

The defense is where Sunday broke from everything before it. 100 passing yards allowed, net of sacks — the fewest of the 28 teams that have played this week, and the second-fewest in any of the 92 team games played this season. 25 Giants pass plays, three of them sacks, worth −6.1 expected points to New York; on defense a negative number is the good direction. That rate is fourth of the 28 so far this week. This pass defense ranked 20-eighth in Week 1 and 20-first in Week 2, and at its rate over those two games the same 25 plays would have been worth about +7. At last season's rate, when it ranked 20-ninth, about +4. One throw beat it: third and seven at the Giants 32, 10 oh seven left in the first quarter, nothing to nothing, Jameis Winston deep left to Cam Skattebo for 30 yards to the Titans 38 — 11 points of win probability, the Giants' best offensive snap of the day, and the drive ended in the first field goal.

Third down held the rest together. The Giants converted four of 13, and that stop rate ranks fifth of the 28 teams so far this week. The run defense was ordinary: 32 Giants rush plays, 139 yards, minus half an expected point, eighteenth this week, against about −2.7 at its Weeks 1 and 2 rate. But inside the 20 it did not break. New York ran seven snaps in the red zone and scored no touchdowns. In the second quarter Harris ran 11 yards to first and goal at the five; the next play, a direct snap to Skattebo, lost seven, and the drive ended in a 27-yard field goal. The Giants opened the third quarter with nine plays from their own 30 to second and two at the Titans two. Then an illegal shift, a holding penalty, second and 17, and two plays later a 30-yard field goal. Four Giants drives reached the Titans 21 or closer, and all four ended in field goals. 12 points allowed is fourth-fewest of the 28 teams so far this week.

The game opened the way it closed: the opening kickoff return went 34 yards and ended in a fumble the Giants recovered at the Titans 37, −4.6 expected points on the first play of the day. The defense gave up nothing for it; New York punted from the 38.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Tennessee went three and 14, with a passing game that ranked 30-first by expected points per play, a run game near the bottom, a pass defense 20-ninth, a run defense 20-third, and a third-down offense in the bottom two. Week 1 was a 23 to 10 home loss to the Jets, the run game tied for sixth that week and the pass defense 20-eighth. Week 2 was a 24 to 20 home loss to the Eagles, the run game fifth, the pass defense 20-first. Sunday flipped those two: the pass defense had its best game of the three by the per-play rate and the run game its worst. Third down, bottom two in the league a year ago, was five of 13, tied for seventeenth of the 28 teams this week, and five of seven after halftime. Three losses, by 13, four and five. Three games do not settle what this team is. They do give the defense a Sunday to point to, and the offense half of one.

Tennessee plays at Baltimore next Sunday.

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_Data via nflverse._