Titans 18, Ravens 24 — Week 4: Four Runs From the Eight, No Points

First and goal at the Baltimore eight, 10 20 left in the second quarter, Tennessee down 14 to seven. Tony Pollard ran for three, then two, then one. On fourth and two at the two the Titans snapped it directly to Pollard, he went at right guard, and Madubuike stopped him for no gain. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, the stop cost the Titans 3.1. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, it cost six points. Baltimore took over at its own two and went 98 yards for a touchdown. The Titans lost 24 to 18 at Baltimore on Sunday and are oh and four. They trailed 24 to seven at halftime, held the Ravens scoreless after it, and were within six with 72 seconds left before the onside kick went to Baltimore.

The game had gone wrong before that drive started. On the second snap of the day, first and 10 at the Baltimore 43 after Chimere Dike's 40-yard kickoff return and a 15-yard catch, Cam Ward threw short over the middle for Pollard and Simpson intercepted it. −6.7 expected points and 18 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Baltimore scored five snaps later.

The passing game opens on Carnell Tate. 12 targets, nine catches, a hundred 45 yards, more yards than he had in his first three games combined, and three of the catches came on throws the play-by-play labels deep. The biggest was the last: fourth and 11 at the Baltimore 36, one 51 left, down 14, Ward deep left to Tate for 33 yards to the three, +4.7 expected points. Wan'Dale Robinson caught the touchdown on the next snap and Gunnar Helm the two-point try. The cost came at the end of the first half: Tate caught a 33-yarder at the Baltimore 37 with 46 seconds left, and Hamilton forced a fumble that Baltimore recovered and turned into a 64-yard field goal. As a unit, 32 pass plays, one sack included, came to −3.9 expected points, with 41 percent successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. At the rate this passing game ran over the first three weeks, those plays would have been worth about −4.8. The interception alone was −6.7; the other 31 were worth +2.8. Ward's 222 passing yards were his most this season. The charting adds that the ball was on target more often: 24 of 31 throws catchable, 77 percent, eighth of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 68 across the first three. Three of those catchable balls were dropped, after one drop in the first three games combined.

The run game opens on the box, because the box was not the problem. Baltimore showed six or fewer defenders on 16 of Tennessee's 22 designed runs, 73 percent, the fourth-lightest front any of the 30 charted offenses saw this week. Across the first three weeks this offense saw a light box on 48 percent. The 22 designed runs gained 58 yards, 2.6 a carry. All 26 rush plays, Ward's scrambles included, came to −5.2 expected points, 31 percent successful; at the rate of the first three weeks, about +1 and a half. Pollard carried 16 times for 48 yards and scored the first rushing touchdown of his season, three yards at right guard on third and three to tie it at seven in the first quarter. Four more carries, from the eight in the second quarter, were the stand.

The pass defense opens on its two halves. Lamar Jackson's 22 pass plays before halftime were worth +11.8 expected points to Baltimore: 15 of 20, 222 yards, touchdowns to Zay Flowers from 19 and Mark Andrews from three. On defense a positive number is the bad direction. The play-by-play logs Jackson as injured on his final snap of the half, a sack by Johnson, and Tyler Huntley's nine pass plays after halftime came to plus point three. For the game, 31 Baltimore pass plays came to +12.0; at the rate this defense allowed over the first three weeks, about +4.3. The throw that hurt most: first and 10 at the Baltimore 43, four 44 left in the half, Jackson deep right to Flowers for 52 yards to the Titans five, on the 98-yard drive. Tennessee sent five or more pass rushers on eight of 33 dropbacks, 24 percent, 20-second of the 30 charted defenses, close to its 21 percent over the first three weeks. Baltimore's throws were catchable 86 percent of the time, the second-highest rate of any charted offense this week. What held was third down: Baltimore converted two of 10.

The run defense was close to its own standard. 28 Baltimore rush plays, a hundred 14 yards, −2.2 expected points to the Ravens; at the rate of the first three weeks, about −1.7. Derrick Henry needed 23 carries for 73 yards, and Tennessee did it with more bodies up front than usual: six or fewer in the box on nine of 26 designed runs, 35 percent, after 50 percent across the first three weeks. After halftime Baltimore ran 17 times for 55 yards. On third and two at the Baltimore 50 with 11 12 left, Taylor and Johnson stopped Henry for a loss of one, and Baltimore punted.

The stand was the turning point, a seven-point game that became 14, and the second half was the comeback that ran out six short. Tennessee scored 11 points after halftime: Joey Slye's 33-yard field goal and the late touchdown with the two-point try. Baltimore missed a 40-yarder with three 24 left that would have made it a 17-point game. The three Titans possessions between the field goal and the final drive all ended in punts, and Tennessee finished two of 10 on third down. 14 snaps inside the Baltimore 20 produced two touchdowns.

Last week's notebook had three entries, and all three moved. The clean-throw streak that broke against the Giants came back: none of Ward's 31 throws was charted interception-worthy, the intercepted one included. The out-of-pocket rate that fell against the Giants went back up: 13 of 36 dropbacks, 36 percent, against 23 across the first three weeks. And the light box came back, on 73 percent of designed runs, while the yards per designed run fell to 2.6 from 4.2 across the first three weeks. Pre-snap motion stayed below its early-season rate: 31 percent, 20-eighth of the 30 charted offenses, after 38 across the first three weeks. Something new: run-pass options, a run and a throw built into the same play, on nine of 58 snaps, after six across the first three games. The one to watch next is Tate's share. 12 of the 28 Titans targets went his way on Sunday.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Tate: nine catches on 12 targets for a hundred 45, 17 points. Ward: 20 of 31 for 222, a touchdown and an interception, four runs for 27, 15.6. Pollard: 16 carries for 48 and a touchdown, two catches for two, 12. Robinson: three catches for 19 and the touchdown, 9.5. For Baltimore, Flowers 21.8, Jackson 18.9, Henry 14.9.

That's your Titans — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Titans show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._