Titans 3, Texans 26 — Week 5: Nine Drives, No Touchdowns

Tennessee lost 26-3 to Houston at home on Sunday and is 0-5. The offense had nine drives and scored on the first one, a 30-yard Joey Slye field goal for a 3-0 lead. The other eight produced two turnovers, two turnovers on downs, two three-and-outs and no points. Both giveaways came with the game within a field goal, and Houston kicked a field goal after each.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA) measures how badly. EPA is what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, against what the situation was already worth. Tennessee's 40 pass plays were worth -16.9 EPA, -0.42 a play, against -0.14 a play through Week 4. Only 37.5% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Cam Ward went 23 of 36 for 170 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. Tyjae Spears caught all 9 of his targets for 28 yards. Wan'Dale Robinson caught 6 of 7 for 53, Calvin Ridley's 23-yard catch on the first snap of the game was the start of the only scoring drive.

The charting says the throws were not the problem. 26 of Ward's 36 throws were catchable, 72.2%, against 70.6% through Week 4, and none was charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, after 3 through Week 4. The one that was caught went short middle for Tony Pollard. Houston sent five or more pass rushers on 7 of 41 dropbacks, 17.1%, below the 22.2% this offense saw through Week 4, and got home anyway. Will Anderson Jr. sacked Ward on fourth and 20 for 14 yards and on fourth and 19 for 13. The charters put none of the sacks on Ward.

The run game's success rate was 38.9%, and the efficiency behind it was worse. 18 rush plays went for 57 yards and -5.6 EPA, -0.31 a play against -0.02 through Week 4. Pollard ran 14 times for 52 yards, 14 of them on the opening drive to the Houston 29. Houston showed six or fewer in the box on 10 of 17 designed runs, 58.8%, close to the 55% this offense saw through Week 4, and those 17 runs gained 55 yards. Spears carried twice for no yards, and one of those carries cost the game its tie.

The pass defense got to more throws and still gave up 261 yards. Houston's 36 pass plays were worth +10.5 EPA, +0.29 a play, against +0.20 allowed through Week 4; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. C.J. Stroud completed 26 of 34 for 261 yards and a touchdown, and 52.8% of Houston's pass plays were successful. Xavier Hutchinson caught 4 of 5 for 65, Nico Collins 5 of 7 for 56 and Jaylin Noel 5 of 5 for 41 and the touchdown. The coverage reached the ball more often: 5 of Stroud's 34 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 14.7%, against 9.8% through Week 4. Tennessee sent five or more on 8 of 36 dropbacks, 22.2%, in line with its 22% through Week 4. Jacob Martin's 11-yard sack on third and 8 at the Titans 29 in the fourth forced a punt.

The run defense held its line. Houston's 25 rush plays gained 81 yards and were worth -2.5 EPA, -0.10 a play against -0.07 allowed through Week 4; on defense a negative number is good. Only 36% were successful. Tennessee did it with a light front, six or fewer in the box on 17 of 25 designed runs, 68%, against 46.7% through Week 4. Woody Marks ran 15 times for 62 yards and David Montgomery 5 for 11. After the fumble, Jeffery Simmons dropped Montgomery for a 2-yard loss on the first snap, and on third and 2 at the Titans 17, Tony Adams stopped Marks for no gain, and Houston settled for a 35-yard field goal.

The game turned on consecutive Tennessee possessions either side of the first quarter's end. Tied 3-3 with 1:49 left in the first, second and 4 at his own 38, Spears ran at left tackle and Dominique Robinson forced a fumble that Jalen Pitre recovered at the Titans 35. That snap was worth -5.5 EPA and cost 15.5 points of win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning. Down 6-3 with 12:17 left in the second, first and 10 at midfield, Ward threw short middle for Pollard and Jake Hansen intercepted at the Houston 40, returning it 19 yards to the Titans 41: -5.8 EPA and 16.5 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Ka'imi Fairbairn's 26-yarder made it 9-3. Houston then opened the second half with a drive that ran to 6:43 of the third and ended in a Stroud touchdown run, 19-3. Tennessee converted 4 of 11 third downs, and all three of its red-zone snaps came on the opening drive, ending with a third-and-4 throw from the 12 to Elic Ayomanor that fell incomplete.

The scheme moved more and faked less. Pre-snap motion rose to 48.1% of charted plays from 35.9% through Week 4, and no-huddle to 20.7% of snaps from 13.5%. Play-action fell to 7 of 41 dropbacks, 17.1%, from 21.5%, and Ward completed 3 of 6 play-action throws for 14 yards, after 16 of 25 for 181 through Week 4. Run-pass options fell to 2, 3.4% of snaps, from 7%. There was 1 screen. Ward left the pocket 9 times on 41 dropbacks, after 36 times on 135.

Last week's question was Carnell Tate's share, after 12 of the 28 Titans targets went his way in Baltimore. It did not hold. Tate was targeted 5 times and caught 1 for 6 yards, while Spears drew 9 targets and Robinson 7. The ball went short and sideways, and the light boxes the offense keeps seeing still did not turn into run yards. The one to watch next: ball security, after two giveaways that each became a Houston field goal, and whether Ward's clean charting, no interception-worthy throws in 36, starts to turn into yards downfield for Tate.

That's your Titans, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Titans on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._