Titans 26, Colts 20 — Week 6: Six Sacks, Two Picks, a Blocked Punt

Tennessee beat Indianapolis 26-20 on the road on Sunday after trailing 13-0 at halftime, and the defense and special teams won it. The Titans took the ball away three times and gave it away once, a margin of +2, sacked Daniel Jones six times and scored on a blocked punt. The offense threw for 102 yards and scored one touchdown. Joey Slye kicked the rest: field goals from 29, 56, 49 and 44 yards, the last two in the final 2:07.

The passing game was thin but better than its season, and expected points added (EPA) shows both halves of that. EPA measures what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, against what the situation was already worth. Tennessee's 22 pass plays were worth -0.16 a play, against -0.21 through Week 5. Only 31.8% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Cam Ward completed 11 of 22 for 102 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was not sacked. Carnell Tate caught 6 of 7 targets for 70 yards, including a 19-yarder on third and 10 to the Colts 14 on the first drive of the second half, which ended in Slye's first field goal. Wan'Dale Robinson caught 3 of 7 for 22. Camryn Bynum's interception before halftime set up the Colts field goal that made it 13-0.

The run game kept its success rate up and its value down. 22 rush plays gained 85 yards and 45.5% succeeded, but they were worth -0.13 EPA a play, against -0.07 through Week 5. Tony Pollard ran 19 times for 76. Two of those carries, 6 yards on second and 1 and 5 more to the Colts 8, set up the touchdown that tied the game.

The pass defense Smashed, and the EPA it allowed tells the story: Indianapolis' 47 pass plays were worth -0.09 a play, against +0.22 allowed through Week 5. On defense, a negative number is good. Jones threw for 269 yards on 42 attempts, but he was sacked six times and intercepted twice. Jeffery Simmons and Jermaine Johnson II had two sacks each, Jacob Martin and Tony Adams one. Amani Hooker intercepted Jones at the 6 in the first quarter, and Cordale Flott picked him off at the 11 with the Colts up 13-3 in the third. The last stand came with the Colts down 23-20 and 1:45 left: third and 10 at the Indianapolis 38, Johnson sacked Jones for a 7-yard loss, and on fourth and 17 the deep throw for Laquon Treadwell fell incomplete. That snap was worth 12.5 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, tied for the largest swing of the game. Keenan Allen still caught 8 of 11 targets for 82.

The run defense gave up 165 yards and still came out ahead, and EPA per play is the reason: Indianapolis' 30 rush plays were worth -0.13 a play, against -0.07 allowed through Week 5. Here, too, negative is the good direction; yardage matters less than what a play costs the offense. On the first snap of the second half, first and 10 at the Colts 28, down 13-0, Simmons forced Jonathan Taylor's fumble and recovered it himself at the 33. The play was worth -5.5 EPA to the Colts, and Slye's 29-yarder put Tennessee on the board. Taylor ran 21 times for 94 and a touchdown, and 40% of the Colts' runs succeeded.

The game turned at the end of the third quarter and kept turning Tennessee's way. Down 13-6, Simmons sacked Jones on third and 10, and Chimere Dike returned the punt 58 yards to the Colts 28. On the fourth snap of the drive, second and 5 from the 8, Ward threw short left to Tate for the touchdown that tied it 13-13, worth 12.5 points of win probability. The Colts' next drive stalled at their own 37 on fourth and 12, Julius Chestnut blocked the punt, and Oluwafemi Oladejo scooped it at the 14 and scored, 20-13. After Taylor tied it, a 36-yard pass-interference penalty on Cam Taylor-Britt moved the ball to the Tennessee 47, and Robinson's 6-yard catch on third and 5 kept the drive alive, 12.3 points of win probability, before Slye's 49-yarder. Tennessee converted 3 of 10 third downs and scored 1 touchdown on 6 red-zone snaps; the defense stopped 8 of the Colts' 15 third downs.

Last week's notebook asked about ball security after two giveaways against Houston, and whether Tate would turn into yards downfield. One giveaway this week against three takeaways, and Tate went from 1 catch for 6 yards to 6 for 70 and the touchdown. The one to watch next: whether a passing game with 102 yards and 3 of 10 on third down can win a week the defense does not take the ball away three times.

That's your Titans, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Titans on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._