Titans 24, Browns 27 — Week 7: Three Snaps From the 1, No Points

Tennessee lost 27-24 at home to Cleveland on Sunday on Andre Szmyt's 32-yard field goal with 3 seconds left. The Titans led 14-0 less than seven minutes in, and Tony Pollard's third touchdown tied it 24-24 with 58 seconds to go. In between they came away empty from the Cleveland 1 and went five straight drives without a point. 10 drives produced three touchdowns, a field goal, two turnovers, a turnover on downs and two three-and-outs.

The passing game reached break-even, a step up for this offense. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had its 32 pass plays at +0.4, +0.01 a play against -0.205 through Week 6. Only 37.5% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Cam Ward completed 20 of 31 for 181 yards, no touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked once. Carnell Tate caught 5 of 7 for 69.

The run game scored three times and still lost ground, and the first quarter was all of it. 30 rush plays were worth -4.1 EPA, -0.137 a play against -0.078 through Week 6, for 141 yards; 43.3% succeeded. Pollard ran 25 times for 129 yards and three touchdowns. In the first quarter he had 12 carries for 87 yards, a 36-yard touchdown on the opening drive and a 10-yarder after the first takeaway. His other 13 carries gained 42 yards and were worth -5.7 EPA, including no gain on fourth and 1 at the Cleveland 1 and no gain on third and 1 at his own 20.

The pass defense gave up yards, took the ball away twice and beat its own standard. Cleveland's 37 pass plays were worth +0.06 EPA each, against +0.152 allowed through Week 6; on defense a positive number is bad, and this was less bad than usual. Still, 56.8% succeeded, for 308 yards and no touchdowns. Deshaun Watson completed 25 of 36, KC Concepcion caught 8 of 10 for 129 yards and Harold Fannin Jr. 6 of 9 for 91. Cordale Flott intercepted a short throw for Denzel Boston on the second drive and returned it 14 yards to the Cleveland 24, -5.3 EPA for the Browns, and Pollard scored on the fourth play after it. Anthony Hill Jr. forced Fannin's fumble on third and 8 in the second quarter, and Tony Adams recovered.

The run defense was Muffed, and success rate allowed opens the case: 55.2% of Cleveland's 29 rush plays succeeded. They gained 183 yards and three touchdowns and were worth +7.4 EPA, +0.256 a play against -0.081 allowed through Week 6. After halftime the Browns' 14 rush plays came to +6.0. Quinshon Judkins ran 17 times for 96 yards and two scores, the first one snap after his 30-yard run to the Tennessee 5. Jermaine Johnson II stopped Judkins for no gain on third and 1 at the 11 in the second quarter, but Jeffery Simmons was offside on fourth down and Judkins scored from the 6. Tied 17-17 with six minutes left, Dylan Sampson ran 19 yards, Concepcion 18 to the 9, and Watson went around left end for the go-ahead touchdown.

The game turned at the Cleveland 1. Up 14-7 early in the second quarter, Elic Ayomanor's 7-yard catch on third and 7 set up first and goal at the 4. Pollard's touchdown was reversed on review to the 1, Ward's sneak gained nothing, Adin Huntington sacked him for no gain on third down, and on fourth and 1 Winston Reid stopped Pollard: -3.4 EPA and 8.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. On the first snap after Hill's forced fumble gave the ball back at the Cleveland 44, Ward threw deep right for Ayomanor and Denzel Ward intercepted at the 22, -3.6 EPA and 10.1 points, the costliest Tennessee play of the day. Cleveland drove 78 yards to tie it, and Tennessee did not score again until Joey Slye's 29-yarder with 8:44 left.

The finish nearly saved it. Down 24-17 with 2:33 left, fourth and 8 at the Cleveland 43, Ward hit Ayomanor deep middle for 26 yards, +4.4 EPA and 17.8 points of win probability. On third and 12 at the 19 he found Tate for 18 to the 1, and Pollard scored. Then Cleveland went 50 yards in 50 seconds, 36 of them on one catch by Fannin, and Joshua Williams's offside on the field-goal snap moved Szmyt 5 yards closer. The offense converted 6 of 13 third downs; the defense stopped 6 of 11.

Last week's notebook asked whether this passing game could win a week in which the defense did not take the ball away three times. Two takeaways, a passing game at +0.01 a play against -0.205 through Week 6, and still a loss: the fumble Hill forced was handed straight back. The catchable-throw half of that question waits for the charting. The one to watch next: whether a run defense that allowed +0.256 a play here, after -0.081 through Week 6, gets back to its standard, and whether Pollard's carries after the first quarter start adding value.

That's your Titans, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Titans on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._