Titans 36, Bengals 43 — Week 8: Three Picks Weren't Enough

Tennessee lost 43-36 in overtime at Cincinnati on Sunday and fell to 1-7, a week after losing to Cleveland on a field goal with 3 seconds left. The Titans led 13-0 in the first quarter and 36-29 with 3:46 left, won the turnover battle 4-2, and still gave up an 81-yard drive to tie it with 1:20 left and a touchdown on the first possession of overtime. 14 drives produced four touchdowns, two field goals, two lost fumbles, a safety, a turnover on downs and two three-and-outs.

The passing game had its best day of the season, and success rate tells it: 22 of 42 pass plays succeeded, 52.4%, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, after no game above 44% this season. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at +3.9, +0.09 a play against -0.17 through Week 7. Cam Ward completed 26 of 40 for 304 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, and was sacked twice. Gunnar Helm caught 5 of 9 for 76 and Wan'Dale Robinson 6 of 7 for 57. Down 29-28 with 7:08 left, Ward converted two third-and-3s, to Daniel Bellinger for 14 and Helm for 25 to the Cincinnati 15, then hit Robinson for a 15-yard touchdown, +2.7 EPA and 17.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Helm caught the two-point try for 36-29. The cost was two fumbles: Robinson's at the Cincinnati 39, and Ward's when Boye Mafe sacked him early in the third, -6.3 EPA.

The run game had its best day of the season too, and EPA per play measures it: 28 rush plays worth +5.3, +0.19 a play against -0.09 through Week 7, for 158 yards and two touchdowns. Tony Pollard ran 21 times for 117 yards, scoring from 40 out on second and 4 in the first quarter, +3.9 EPA, and from the 1 in the third. His 22-yard run to the Cincinnati 11 set up Chimere Dike's go-ahead touchdown in the fourth. Ward added 41 yards on seven carries, including 6 on fourth and 1 on the opening drive. The one carry that cost: tied 21-21 late in the third, from his own 3, Pollard was tackled in the end zone for a safety.

The pass defense took the ball away three times and still gave up the game through the air. Cincinnati's 51 pass plays were worth +18.0 EPA, +0.35 a play against +0.14 allowed through Week 7; on defense a positive number is bad, and this was a lot of it. Joe Burrow completed 38 of 48 for 462 yards and five touchdowns. All three interceptions were Amani Hooker's, each on a deep throw to the right, two meant for Ja'Marr Chase, the last at the Tennessee 5. Jacob Martin sacked Burrow three times, the first on fourth and 2 at the Tennessee 5 for a 15-yard loss before halftime, -3.7 EPA. Tee Higgins caught 10 of 11 for 155 yards and two touchdowns.

The run defense Smashed, and EPA per play allowed says by how much: Cincinnati's 19 rush plays were worth -0.34 a play, the best of any game this season, against -0.04 allowed through Week 7. Here a negative number is good. They gained 75 yards and only 7 succeeded. Chase Brown ran 12 times for 55, and on second and 1 at the Cincinnati 49 early in the fourth, Alontae Taylor forced his fumble and Kevin Winston Jr. recovered: -5.5 EPA for Cincinnati and 26.8 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the day.

The game turned in the last 32 seconds of regulation. Tied 36-36 after Higgins's 18-yard touchdown, Ward hit Elic Ayomanor for 13 and scrambled for 7 to reach third and 3 at the Cincinnati 45. Dexter Lawrence sacked him for 13 yards, -1.7 EPA and 13.6 points of win probability, and Tennessee punted. Cincinnati took the overtime kickoff 70 yards in five plays, and Burrow scrambled in from the 9. Tennessee's answer reached fourth and 3 at its own 35, and Ward's short throw for Ayomanor fell incomplete. The offense converted 5 of 12 third downs.

Last week's notebook asked whether a run defense that allowed +0.256 a play to Cleveland would get back to its standard. It went past it: -0.34 a play here, its best of the season. The one to watch next: whether a passing game at +0.09 a play and 52.4% success, both season bests, holds up against a defense that is not giving up +0.35 a play to the other side.

That's your Titans, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Titans on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._