Brock Purdy — Week 5: The Fourth-Quarter Go-Ahead Drive

Brock Purdy beat the Seahawks in Seattle on a day well below his standard: 19 of 29, 189 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 3 sacks, and -3.6 expected points added (EPA) on 35 dropbacks, -0.10 per dropback. EPA is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position.

The drive that mattered came down 26-21 early in the fourth quarter. On third and 10 at the Seattle 49 he hit Mike Evans deep middle for 23 yards, +15.5 points of win probability. An intentional grounding call left the 49ers in second and 21, and he answered with 28 yards to Evans deep right, to the Seattle 9. Two snaps later, second and 7 with 11:10 left, he threw short left to Brandin Cooks for a 7-yard touchdown, +2.2 EPA, then found Evans for the two-point conversion and a 29-26 lead.

His mistake came in the third quarter, up 21-16. Third and 7 at his own 37 with 7:24 left, a short throw for Jacob Cowing was intercepted by Nehemiah Pritchett and returned 20 yards to the San Francisco 23: -5.1 EPA and -15.4 points of win probability. Seattle scored the go-ahead touchdown three snaps later.

Through Week 4 he was +69.1 EPA on 122 dropbacks, +0.57 per dropback, with 1 interception and no sacks. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was +5.4, above his +4.5 through Week 4. The accuracy held; the sacks and the interception did the damage.

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_Data via nflverse._