Brock Purdy — Week 7: 288 Yards, Two Interceptions

Brock Purdy moved the ball against the Falcons and gave it away twice when it mattered: 27 of 40 for 288 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, sacked twice, in San Francisco's 29-20 loss at Atlanta. Over 41 dropbacks he was worth -1.9 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, -0.05 per dropback. His 11 pass plays before halftime were worth +4.4 EPA, his 30 after it -6.3.

The first interception came down 19-14 with 5:41 left in the third. Second and 14 at the Atlanta 25, one snap after a short pass to Kaelon Black lost 4, he threw short right for Jacob Cowing and Jessie Bates picked it off at the 10: -4.0 EPA and -10.8 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Atlanta drove 90 yards for a touchdown. The second came down 26-20 with 2:42 left, on third and 9 at his own 48 after a false start: short middle for Jordan Watkins, and Kendal Daniels returned it 29 yards to the 19, -5.67 EPA.

In between he converted fourth and 9 with an 11-yard throw to Cowing, +3.54 EPA, had a touchdown to Watkins overturned on replay review, and was sacked on fourth and 10 at the Atlanta 23. He threw the 1-yard touchdown to Kyle Juszczyk with 5:09 left, and both of his runs, up the middle on third and 1 and fourth and 1, converted.

It was well below his season. Through Week 6 he had +68.2 EPA on 190 dropbacks, +0.36 per dropback, and 2 interceptions in six games. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was +0.5, against +5.1 through Week 6.

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_Data via nflverse._