Caleb Williams — Week 7: 308 Yards, No Interceptions

Caleb Williams had his biggest yardage night of the season against the Patriots: 22 of 33 for 308 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, plus 5 carries for 18 yards, in a 30-24 win at home on Thursday night. Over 39 dropbacks, three sacks and three scrambles included, he was worth +15.4 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position. Five of his eight deep throws were caught, for 144 yards.

The throw that defined his night came right after a sack. Up 13-7 with 21 seconds left in the half, he had been dropped for 7 yards, leaving third and 17 at the New England 24. He threw short right to Luther Burden III behind the line of scrimmage, and Burden ran it in for the touchdown: +4.36 EPA and 6.5 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. In the third quarter he hit Colston Loveland for 22 on second and 14, then for the 12-yard touchdown that made it 27-14.

He closed it on third down. Up 27-21 with 4:59 left, third and 9 at his own 10, he went deep right to Rome Odunze for 21 yards, +2.34 EPA and 8.4 points of win probability; two plays later Odunze caught 21 more to midfield, and the drive ended in Cairo Santos's 58-yard field goal.

It was a step up on a good start. Through Week 6, in his three games, Weeks 1, 2 and 6, he had completed 66 of 91 for 712 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception, at +0.29 EPA per dropback over 111 dropbacks; here it was +0.40. Completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which compares completions with what each throw's difficulty predicts, was +6.7, against +9.8 through Week 6.

Follow Caleb Williams on Muffed, and every episode lands in your weekly email.

_Data via nflverse._