Chig Okonkwo — Week 1: Three Targets, Same as John Bates
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Okonkwo was thrown to three times, the same as John Bates, and caught two for sixteen yards, the longer a fifteen-yard catch on second and twelve in the third quarter that was worth six point four points of win probability. Stefon Diggs had nine targets, Antonio Williams and Terry McLaurin four each, and the failed two-point conversion went to Bates, in a 22–24 loss to the Eagles.
When Chig Okonkwo's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
The full episode, in writing
Second and 12 at the Washington 42, nine 12 left in the third quarter, Washington down nine to 14. Jayden Daniels, no huddle, short middle to Chig Okonkwo for 15 yards to the Philadelphia 43, first down. +1.9 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 6.4 points of win probability, the chance of winning after the play against before it, the fifth-largest gain any Washington pass or run produced all day. The drive did not score: it got as far as the Philadelphia 36 and stalled on two incompletions, short right to Stefon Diggs on second and nine and deep right to Dyami Brown on third and nine.
Three targets, two catches, 16 yards, one first down, +0.9 expected points on the targets, longest 15. The other two: first and 10 at the Washington 32 with 14 oh four left in the half, short left for one yard, on a drive that went three and out; and first and 10 at the Philadelphia 41 with five 37 left in the half, deep right, incomplete, on the drive Jacory Croskey-Merritt finished from the one. Two targets before halftime for one yard, one after for 15. None on third down. 39 air yards on the three throws, two yards after the catch. The two-point conversion attempt with a minute and one second left, Washington down 22 to 24, went to the other tight end, John Bates; the pass was complete and the attempt failed.
The ball went nine times to Diggs, four each to Antonio Williams and Terry McLaurin, three each to Okonkwo and Bates, two each to Rachaad White and Dyami Brown, one each to Croskey-Merritt and Jaylin Lane, and five throws carry no receiver. 34 throws on 35 pass plays; 16 pass plays before halftime, 19 after. Bates's three included the third and two from the 10 with two oh eight left, incomplete, that forced the fourth-down throw to McLaurin. Okonkwo's 16 receiving yards were third on the team, behind Williams's 64 and Diggs's 55; Bates had 13.
Back in June the preview called Okonkwo a lean, overpriced — TE16 at pick one 37, paying in advance for a breakout from a player whose four seasons all sat inside half a point a game on four and a half targets a game, with the new contract and Zach Ertz's 91 vacated targets as the case against the lean — and it said that if September showed six-plus targets a game, fold the lean immediately. Sunday was three, on a day Washington threw 34 times, split evenly with Bates. The fold rule was written for a month, not one Sunday, and the first data point sits on the old band rather than above it. Washington is at the Cowboys on Sunday the twentieth.
_Data via nflverse._
When Chig Okonkwo's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
Keep going