Chris Brooks — Week 1: Fourteen Yards on His First Carry

The best run Green Bay had all day was Chris Brooks's first one. Second and 10 at the Green Bay 47, 14 10 left in the first quarter, no score, the second snap the Packers took: left tackle to the Minnesota 39, 14 yards. It was worth +1.6 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and +6.5 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. Of the 21 carries Green Bay's backs and quarterback took, none was worth more by either measure. A false start pushed the drive back from there, it stalled at the Minnesota 41 on a third-and-12 incompletion, and Green Bay kicked the field goal that opened the scoring.

The line: seven carries, 29 yards, one first down, two of the seven successful, −0.8 expected points on the carries. Four came before halftime for 24 yards, three after for five. The one that mattered most was small: first and goal at the Minnesota seven, 30 seconds left in the half, up 12 to 10, right guard to the two for five yards; Watson caught the two-yard touchdown on the next play. He also carried on the first snap of the two-minute drive, two yards left guard from the Green Bay 26 at one 49. The third-quarter carries were −1 up the middle on first down at the Green Bay 38, one yard around left end on third and 11 from the 37, and five yards left end on second and nine. The one target was second and 25 at the Green Bay 49 with five 34 left in the second quarter, short left, incomplete.

The split: MarShawn Lloyd 13 carries, Brooks seven, Jordan Love one, with Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner's Exempt list. Green Bay ran eight times before halftime and 13 after and threw 19 pass plays and 27; the 21 carries came out at −9.0 expected points as a group, and seven of them were successful. Brooks's seven carries were worth −0.8, Lloyd's 13 −3.8, and Love's fourth-and-one −4.4 on its own.

Back in June the preview made no call on Brooks: the 70-fourth running back at pick two 40, a deep handcuff promoted to the number-two job behind Jacobs when Emanuel Wilson left, with no standalone role and a ceiling set by the men in front of him, and the passing-down snaps against Lloyd as the thing to watch. Sunday the man in front of him was Lloyd, 13 carries to seven, and the passing-down share was one target each, both incomplete. One game does not decide a rotation, and a rotation is exactly what the carry list looked like. Green Bay is at the Jets on Sunday the twentieth.

_Data via nflverse._