Christian McCaffrey — Week 4: Stopped Once, Then In

10 to six, 49ers, nine 34 left in the fourth quarter against the Broncos, first and goal at the Denver one after Mike Evans's 17-yard catch. Christian McCaffrey went left guard and got nothing. On second and one, eight 55 left, he went up the middle for the touchdown. +0.9 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 5.4 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. 17 to six after the kick.

The line: 15 carries, 52 yards, one touchdown, four first downs, −2.6 expected points on the carries; five targets, three catches, 18 yards. The long runs were 12 around left end in the first quarter and 14 up the middle on second and one in the fourth, on the touchdown drive. The 10 on third and one late in the second quarter was worth 6.3 points of win probability and kept alive the drive that tied it. 12 of the 15 carries gained three yards or fewer.

15 of San Francisco's 29 designed runs were his; Kaelon Black had six, Brock Purdy four, Samuel three. Five targets were fourth on the team.

Back in June the preview's case was that the aging fade is real, he clears it, and the catches are the bet. Weeks 1 through 3 were 35 carries for a hundred 66 yards and three touchdowns, and 13 catches. Sunday was 3.5 a carry and the quietest receiving day of the four. Four games: 50 carries, 218 yards, four touchdowns, 16 catches for a hundred 22.

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_Data via nflverse._