Chuba Hubbard — Week 2: Twelve Carries, Five More Erased

Nothing to nothing, 10 51 left in the first quarter, fourth and three at the Atlanta three. Bryce Young threw short left to Chuba Hubbard for the touchdown. +4.0 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 8.5 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, the largest gain by any pass or run on either side all afternoon. The drive had started at the Atlanta 35 after Cooper Rush fumbled on the first snap of the game, and Hubbard had the first two touches of it: an eight-yard catch, then three yards up the middle on second and two. He also ran four yards to the three on second and seven, two snaps before the score.

The line: 12 carries, 53 yards, no rushing touchdown, four first downs, seven of the 12 successful, +0.2 expected points on the carries; two targets, two catches, 11 yards, one touchdown, +4.6 on the targets. The carries went three, four, three, five, five, nothing, one, 12, three, nine, three, five. Six before halftime for 20 yards, six after for 33. The 12 came behind the left tackle on first and 10 from the Carolina 37 with 13 oh four left in the third. Two carries on third down: three yards on third and one at the Atlanta 20, converted, and five on third and 21 from the Carolina 22, ahead of a punt. Three carries from the Atlanta 20 or closer gained four, three and nothing.

Then there are the runs that are not in the line. Five Hubbard carries came back on Carolina penalties: six yards on the first snap of the second quarter, holding; eight yards early in the third, holding; and three on the first drive of the fourth quarter — two yards, illegal shift; 17 yards, holding; 18 yards, illegal shift. 51 yards in all, nearly as many as the 53 that counted. That fourth-quarter drive still gave him carries of nine, three and five, and ended in a punt.

The split: Hubbard 12 designed runs, Jonathon Brooks five, AJ Dillon three, and Young one scramble. All three of Dillon's came on Carolina's last real possession, with under six minutes left, so of the 17 running-back carries before it Hubbard had 12. Carolina had seven designed runs before halftime and 13 after, against 38 pass plays. Both of Hubbard's targets came in the first quarter.

Back in June the preview had Hubbard on the watchlist: the 20-seventh running back off the board, a price paying for the memory of the season before last after a collapse to 40-second per game, in a committee built to shift toward Brooks — a usage question. Week 1 was 10 carries to Brooks's four and two touchdowns. Sunday was 12 to five, and the fourth-down throw went to him. For the second week running, Carolina's first points were a Hubbard touchdown catch from inside the five. The split has not moved toward Brooks yet; two games do not settle a plan the team described as gradual. Carolina is at the Browns on Sunday the 20-seventh.

_Data via nflverse._